Month: February 2024

Oscar Predictions – Dune: Part Two

In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.

The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.

Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.

Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

February 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction
Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction
Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.

I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).

The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.

While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.

Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.

Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:

1. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Migration

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. Drive-Away Dolls

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.

Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.

Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.

The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.

Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our third filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:

Dunkirk (2017)

The Case for Christopher Nolan:

Where to begin? Oppenheimer is easily the frontrunner for BP and leads all nominees with 13 overall. Nolan, one of the most visible and well-known filmmakers of the 21st century, has won all significant precursors. That includes the DGA (which has a sterling track record of matching with Oscar), the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

The Case Against Christopher Nolan:

There’s not much of one honestly. However, the Academy does have a history of snubbing Nolan. He missed the cut for Memento, The Dark Knight and Inception even though he picked up DGA nods for all three.

The Verdict:

If Nolan were to lose, it would be a jaw dropper. This is one of the easiest races to forecast. For someone whose pictures consistently deal with the concept of time… it’s his time with the Academy.

My Case Of posts will continue with Carey Mulligan in Maestro…

77th BAFTA Awards Reaction

The top races went as I anticipated at the 77th BAFTA Awards while other races were a bit more unpredictable. That’s pretty much par for the course with the British equivalent of the Oscars as I went 13/23 (oof) in my selections.

Let’s start with Oppenheimer. As expected, Christopher Nolan’s epic took Best Film and its maker is your Best Director. Some prognosticators had this pegged for a record setting 10 BAFTAs. I had it winning 8 and it took 7. In addition to Film and Director, I correctly called Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score. I still believe Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers poses a threat to Murphy with the Academy (especially if he manages to win SAG). Oppenheimer should take those other BAFTA trophies a little less than a month away at the Oscars.

I incorrectly had Oppenheimer taking Best Sound. It instead went to The Zone of Interest. The Holocaust drama had a solid day with a victory in Best Film Not in the English Language over my predicted Anatomy of a Fall and for Outstanding British Film over my pick of Poor Things.

Despite the Poor miss in that category, it was honored with a handful of prizes. Emma Stone is your Best Actress and it won Costume Design, Makeup & Hair (over my Maestro call), Production Design, and Special Visual Effects (over my Napoleon pick).

The Holdovers was a double recipient for Supporting Actress with Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Casting (I went with All of Us Strangers instead).

Those four (Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers) were the only features with two victories or more. Here’s what else I got right: Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay (which certainly helps its Oscar chances) and 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary (same story).

In Adapted Screenplay, it was American Fiction continuing to make the case for Academy gold with a surprise win over Poor Things and my runner-up Oppenheimer.

The Boy and the Heron, as it did at the Globes, is Best Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I went with Spidey and there could be a real showdown on March 10th.

Earth Mama is the Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer over the favored How to Have Sex while the lead in Sex (Mia McKenna-Bruce) is the Rising Star over Jacob Elordi (who I picked).

Some overall takeaways that shouldn’t surprise: Oppenheimer is still the overwhelming choice for BP as it’s winning everywhere it needs to. Same goes for Nolan and Downey Jr.

Randolph is bascially a lock for Supporting Actress while Emma Stone helped herself today over stiff competition from Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Some noteworthy pics that didn’t take a single award: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Maestro.

Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar speculation as we approach the big show!

Oscars: The Case of Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Chaplin (Actor, 1992); Tropic Thunder (Supporting Actor, 2008)

The Case for Robert Downey Jr.:

It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:

Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Verdict:

At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.

My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of America Ferrera in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for America Ferrera:

Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.

The Case Against America Ferrera:

Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.

The Verdict:

I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actor and that’s Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Cinderella Man (Supporting Actor, 2005)

The Case for Paul Giamatti:

He has an Emmy and a Globe as the title character in HBO’s John Adams from 2008, but Paul Giamatti has just one Oscar nod for his supporting work in Cinderella Man. For that nomination, he was in the mix but came up short to George Clooney in Syriana. That means he was snubbed for 2003’s American Splendor and, most notably, 2004’s Sideways. There could be an overdue narrative brewing. As temperamental teacher Paul Hunham in his second collaboration with Alexander Payne behind Sideways, Giamatti has won the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical and took the Critics Choice Award. He’s also in contention for BAFTA tomorrow and SAG next week.

The Case Against Paul Giamtti:

That the Oppenheimer love will translate to Cillian Murphy being named. He is the recipient of the Globe for Actor in a Drama. Perhaps voters will feel The Holdovers is being properly honored in Supporting Actress where Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the frontrunner.

The Verdict:

Giamatti stands an excellent chance… as does Murphy. My suspicion is that Murphy takes BAFTA and Giamatti is out front as SAG. If that pans out, we are in for a showdown on the evening of the Academy’s festivities. If either of the performers win BAFTA/SAG, consider them the strong favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue with America Ferrera in Barbie…

Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

Ethan Coen of the legendary Coen Brothers makes his solo directorial debut (not counting his documentary Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind) with Drive-Away Dolls on February 23rd. He cowrote the road comedy with his wife Tricia Cooke and it follows brother Joel’s initial solo work The Tragedy of Macbeth from 2021. Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan star with a supporting cast including Beanie Feldstein, Colman Domingo, Pedro Pascal, Bill Camp, and Matt Damon.

Dolls was originally slated for September of last year before the five-month delay. That eliminated the possibility of a festival run or awards buzz and this seems to be flying under the radar. Despite some high profile cast members and a reported 2000 screen count, this may only bring out the hardest core Coen followers. That should mean a stalled start.

Drive-Away Dolls opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction

For my Ordinary Angels prediction, click here:

Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction

Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction

Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank headlines the inspiration true-life drama Ordinary Angels as Lionsgate hopes this baby makes several million dollars out of the gate. Jon Gunn, the filmmaker behind Do You Believe? and The Case for Christ, directs with a supporting cast including Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones. There are some noteworthy behind the scenes players involved with Kelly Fremon Craig (writer/director of The Edge of Seventeen and Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret) sharing script duties with actress Meg Tilly.

Angels was originally slated to touch down in theaters on October 13th last year until it (wisely) moved to make way for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. These faith-based offerings can manage to outperform expectations. I wouldn’t be shocked if an opening weekend in the $10 million range materialized, but my forecast puts it a bit under.

Ordinary Angels opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction

For my Drive-Away Dolls prediction, click here:

Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Small Things like These

There’s a darn good chance that Cillian Murphy will take the Best Actor prize as Oppenheimer a little less than a month from now. A second nomination in a row is not out of the question based on buzz from the Berlin Film Festival. Tim Mielants’s 1980s set Irish drama Small Things like These has kicked off the German fest to acclaim. Costars include Eileen Walsh, Michelle Fairley, Emily Watson, and Ciaran Hinds.

Based on the smattering of reviews, the RT score is 100%. Based on a 2021 novel by Claire Keegan, much of the praise is centered on Murphy. Given that Oppenheimer appears well on its way to multiple victories, Small should have no trouble securing stateside distribution.

A smart campaign could put its lead in the mix again. The Adapted Screenplay from Enda Walsh is also being singled out. Obviously we are extraordinarily early in the season for the 97th Academy Awards. Yet this is one to keep in mind as the months roll along. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…