Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project is available for viewing on HBO/Max streaming this week. Centered on the life and work of the famed poet, the doc from directors Joe Brewster and Michèle Stephenson originally premiered at Sundance nearly a year back. At the festival, it received the Grand Jury Prize. Now it’s one of the 15 contending documentaries at the Oscars.
Sitting at 95% on RT, Mars could be aligned for a slot in the eventual quintet. I would say of the 15 possibilities, it belongs in the top 10 and I’ve had it ranked 7th in my last two updates since the shortlists were announced. We’ll see if it rises or falls in the next few days before nominations are revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
20 years after his picture The Weather Underground was in contention for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, filmmaker Sam Green has another potential at bat with 32 Sounds. It is one of 15 docs vying for five spots that made the shortlist a couple of weeks back.
The immersive exploration of sound generated mostly thumbs up with a 96% RT rating. However, a number of the reviews aren’t overly effusive in their praise.
That said, I believe only 20 Days in Mariupol and Beyond Utopia have basically reserved positions in the quintet to be announced January 23rd. This is with the caveat that the doc branch is known to snub frontrunners. 32 Sounds is a long shot, but could hear its name called as a surprise nominee. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I.S.S. isn’t a comedy about a group of rambunctious teens serving in-school suspension. The title stands for International Space Station in the sci-fi thriller from Gabriela Cowperthwaite, best known for directing the documentary Blackfish. Oscar winner Ariana DeBose, Chris Messina, John Gallagher Jr., Maria Mashkova, Costa Ronin, and Pilou Asbaek star.
Critics first boarded I.S.S. back in June at the Tribeca Film Festival where it launched with solid notices (93% on RT). Bleecker Street acquired the rights last fall for the January 19th premiere. The release date doesn’t indicate much confidence (despite the reviews). It also doesn’t help that Bleecker’s distribution library is littered with box office disappointments (Mafia Mamma anyone?). If this manages to reach $5 million, I’d be a little surprised.
The Producers Guild of America hold their 35th ceremony on February 25th with nominations out today. In an unexpected way, the PGA surprised us with their BP contenders.
For the two races (Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture), I went 12/15 in my picks.
For the big competition, there was general consensus that eight movies would make the cut: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
Oppenheimer is seen as the frontrunner with Barbie and Killers as potential threats. That octet of expected features are nominated. It’s the other two that will get the lions share of attention on social media.
The PGA, in the past, has shown an aversion to international titles. Occasionally one gets in their top ten. 2018’s Roma and 2019’s Parasite are recent examples. Yet they seemed to be outliers. Roma was the favorite to win Oscar’s BP (though it lost to Green Book). Parasite did win.
Therefore it made sense for me (and most other prognosticators) to leave out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Instead I went with Air and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Plenty of others selected The Color Purple and it was my alternate.
Yet PGA went ahead and nominated Anatomy and Zone (causing me to go 8/10). This is the first time they’ve nominated 2 foreign pics in the same year. Surprise surprise!
And this is where it gets tricky when it comes to projecting the Academy’s Best Picture lineup. It is very rare that PGA/Oscar match. In fact, we’ve seen four years (2009, 2010, 2021, 2022) where there’s been a set 10 contenders for both shows. In 2009 – the correlation between the two was 8 for 10. In 2010 – there was the high mark of 9. For 2021, it was 8. And it was 7 last year.
Here’s the problem. The PGA 10 is currently my Oscar BP 10. Will they actually match up? Is that possible? It sure seems to be, but time will tell and let’s see if my predictions shift when I update them this weekend.
In the Animated competition, your nominees are: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.
I went 4 for 5. Mario, the highest grosser of the quintet, gets in over my pick of Wish (which was a Disney dud). Maybe I should’ve figured this guild would go with the massive blockbuster. Spidey is the safe call for victory.
I’ll have final predictions for the winners up shortly before the show!
Mean Girls, out tomorrow, is based on the Broadway musical based on a movie that’s originally based on a book. In that sense, it’s much like current Oscar contender The Color Purple. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. make their directorial debut with Tina Fey returning to costar and write the screenplay. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Busy Philips, Tim Meadows, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park.
The 2004 pic was a box office and critical success (84% RT) that has endured over the past two decades. Reviews for this aren’t as strong, but they’re decent at 71% on the Tomato meter.
Original Song is the only race where this stands any chance at Academy recognition. I doubt the memory of this version will endure long enough for voters to remember them. Since it’s a musical, the Globes could honor it in Musical/Comedy, but the same logic applies there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.
Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Acting Ensemble
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)
PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Comedy
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: American Fiction
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Cinematography
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Editing
Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla
PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Production Design
Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Score
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Song
Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
That works out to the following wins for these movies:
6 Wins
Barbie, Oppenheimer
3 Wins
The Holdovers
2 Wins
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things
As if today’s SAG nominations weren’t enough to ponder, the Directors Guild of America announced its five nominees in their three races this afternoon.
I went 11 for 15 in my picks. As I did with SAG in my previous post, let’s break it down with some initial thoughts.
Feature Film
Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
How I Did: 4/5
No surprises as Payne was my alternate pick over Bradley Cooper (Maestro). The DGA and the Academy usually match on a 4 for 5 basis and Payne is indeed the most vulnerable to nab Oscar attention. Nolan is absolutely the favorite for the victory.
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 3/5
Jefferson, Rockwell, and Song all seemed safe and that’s how it turned out. Martelli and Niasari are in over my calls of Raine Allen Miller (Rye Lane) and Juel Taylor (They Cloned Tyrone). There’s a major frontrunner in this competition as well and it’s Song.
Documentaries
Nominees: Moses Bwayo & Christopher Sharp (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Mstyslav Chernov (20 Days in Mariupol), Madeleine Gavin (Beyond Utopia), Davis Guggenheim (Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie), D. Smith (Kokomo City)
How I Did: 4/5
The Bobi Wine team makes the quintet over Kaouther Ben Hania for Four Daughters. This race is a little trickier to make a quick pick and I’ll sit on it until I make that prediction shortly before the February 10th event.
A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.
I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
How I Did: 3/5
A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).
While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 4/5
Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/5
Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
How I Did: 3/5
This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
How I Did: 3/5
This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.
You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!
As if there weren’t enough Oscar precursor activity with the SAG and DGA nominations arriving tomorrow, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveil their ten nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture on Friday.
In 2021, the Academy reverted back to a set 10 for BP contenders. There was an 8 for 10 correlation that year between the PGA’s movies and the Academy’s. Last year it was 7 for 10.
One commonality is that international titles usually don’t make the cut with PGA. While Parasite was a rare exception in 2019, Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front weren’t to be found on PGA’s list in the last two years. Therefore I’m leaving out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest for the 35th ceremony. Either or both could pop up, but this seems to be the smarter play.
With those potential Oscar BP hopefuls out, I do believe there’s a somewhat safe 8 to predict: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. I could see one or two potentially miss – Fiction, Maestro, and Lives might be vulnerable. Yet I won’t go as far in projecting any of them out.
That leaves two slots. The PGA often goes for blockbusters that the Academy ignores. Examples over the past decade include Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and its sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
The list does not include Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse from 2018 (somewhat surprisingly). I’m hesitant, therefore, to include its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The PGA could simply decide that it’ll likely win their Animated race and can be left off. However, Across was an even bigger financial success with glowing reviews. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m giving Spidey one of the open spots.
For the tenth film, there’s plenty of hopefuls. Could this be where The Color Purple makes a last stand for viability with the Academy? Could The Iron Claw pop up? Perhaps PGA will go with an unexpected title that didn’t garner across the board critical acclaim, but has a high profile director. Napoleon or Ferrari come to my mind. Will Saltburn or May December get in?
Those are all, to varying degrees, feasible. I ultimately am going with Air from Ben Affleck. While I don’t think it gets in for BP at the Oscars, the reviews and overall feeling that this is a rock solid sports drama puts it in over some of the aforementioned others.
As for the animated race and their five contenders, we’ve already established that Spidey is in. Because of the international movies thing, you may not find freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron here. That same logic could apply to Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. We shall see.
Let’s get to the list of nominees and an alternate, shall we?
The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.
The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.
If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.
I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.
The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.
And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
8. The Book of Clarence
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (January 5-7)
Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.
As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.
Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.
Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.
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