Month: January 2024

Oscar Predictions: A Different Man

Writer/director Aaron Schimberg’s A Different Man was one of the more buzzed about titles premiering at Sundance and early reaction is that it lives up to the hype. With reviews indicating it crosses multiple genres, Sebastian Stan stars as a formerly disfigured man with Adam Pearson (who has neurofibromatosis in real life) playing him in a stage production. Renate Reinsve (who drew acclaim raves for 2021’s The Worst Person in the World) costars.

With a 90% RT score, critics are saying this is tough story to pull off and that Schimberg generally succeeds. One also gets the vibe that this is a very A24 production. Translation: mainstream crowds might be turned off.

That said, A24 could mount a campaign for two of the three top performers in particular. Stan is said to give a career best performance in lead while Pearson is getting plenty of attention for his supporting turn. You may recognize him from an extremely eerie scene in Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin from 2014. If those actors can be in contention, other top of the line races could follow. I wouldn’t count out a Makeup and Hairstyling nod either. Let’s see how hard its distributor pushes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

January 26-28 Box Office Predictions

The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Miller’s Girl Box Office Prediction

The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.

Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.

Here’s my top 5 forecast:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

4. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.

Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.

Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.

Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.

Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.

Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: I Saw the TV Glow

A24 is having a solid Sundance so far (Love Lies Bleeding, A Different Man) and Jane Schoenbrun’s horror pic I Saw the TV Glow is part of it. It is the director’s sophomore effort behind We’re All Going to the World’s Fair with Justice Smith, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Danielle Deadwyler, Helena Howard, and Limp Bizkit’s Fred Durst headlining.

Glow is shining with a 100% RT rating. This seems destined for kudos throughout the year as critics are saying this is far from a sophomore slump. That said, A24 products can be too much for the Academy and that could be the case (especially considering the genre). Don’t be surprised if this ends up on some top ten lists. I wouldn’t expect the Academy’s to be one of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Power

In 2017, Yance Ford’s true crime doc Strong Island (centered on the murder of the filmmaker’s brother) contended for Documentary Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Icarus. Island first screened at Sundance seven years ago. His follow-up is Power and it has also been unveiled at the Utah fest.

Focusing on American policing tactics, the handful of reviews out are a bit mixed. The RT score is 83% (Island had a clean 100%). Power might have a tougher road to make the Academy’s ultimate quintet, but I wouldn’t discount it if it manages to make the shortlisted 15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Love Lies Bleeding

Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.

From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.

A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Frida

Salma Hayek received her sole Oscar nomination in Actress for the title role of 2002’s Frida. Over two decades later, Mexican painter Frida Kahlo is the subject of Carla Gutierrez’s documentary. Premiering at Sundance, it is slated for Amazon streaming in March. The filmmaker makes her directorial debut though she’s served as editor on high profile docs like RBG and Julia.

Reviews out of Utah thus far are a bit on the mixed side. In recent years, we’ve seen a slew of movies in this genre focused on artists of the painting and musical variety. They rarely run through the gauntlet and make it to the Academy’s final five in Documentary Feature. I question Frida‘s chances as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sasquatch Sunset

Sasquatch Sunset comes from brothers Nathan and David Zellner and the quirky comedy focuses on a family of three Bigfoots. Premiering at Sundance prior to an April 12th release, it stars Jesse Eisenberg, Riley Keough, Christophe Zajac-Denek, and Nathan Zellner himself. Ari Aster executives produces and this sounds right up his absurdist alley.

Critics are mostly digging this and it sports a 79% RT score. Even those reviews, however, indicate mainstream audiences could be baffled. I doubt this will have a big footprint (or any) during awards season (though maybe the makeup work get some attention). It should also be noted that distributor Bleecker Street has a weak track record at campaigning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Presence

Steven Soderbergh’s latest is Presence and early reviews from Sundance compliment it as an unconventionally engrossing ghost story. Lucy Liu, Julia Fox, and Chris Sullivan star in the brief (85 minutes) genre exercise written by David Koepp (who scripted the director’s recent Kimi).

Mr. Soderbergh helped usher in the indie revolution in 1989 with Sex, Lies, and Videotape. Since then, he’s helmed an eclectic mix of awards contenders, blockbusters, and experimental efforts. This appears to fall in the latter grouping. It’s actually been some time since Soderbergh was majorly in the Oscar mix with the one two punch of Erin Brockovich and Traffic in 2000.

Despite a 100% RT score, Presence shouldn’t have one among Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Outrun

As a recovering alcoholic returning to her native Scottish Island roots, Saoirse Ronan looks to enter next year’s awards mix in The Outrun. From Nora Fingscheidt, best known for 2021’s The Unforgivable with Sandra Bullock, the StudioCanal production is based on the 2016 novel by Amy Liptrot (who scripts). Costars include Paapa Essiedu, Stephen Dillane, and Saskia Reeves.

With a smattering of reviews from its screening at Sundance, this is at 83% on RT. One thing seems clear. Ronan probably will be in the conversation for Actress. At just age 29, she’s already a four-time Academy nominee. Her first mention was in the supporting field at 13 for 2007’s Atonement. The trio of Actress noms were in a five ceremony period: 2015’s Brooklyn, 2017’s Lady Bird, and Little Women in 2019. She’s yet to take the trophy. In recent times, her projects (See How They Run, Foe) have failed to garner any awards buzz.

As long as this is still on the voters radar in a year, Ronan could be in contention for her fifth attempt. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Miller’s Girl Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is seeking viewers for Miller’s Girl when it opens on January 26th, but the challenge could be audiences even knowing it exists. The pic from debut director/writer Jade Halley Bartlett stars Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega. The trailer might remind one of a late 80s/early 90s style Fatal Attraction clone. Costars include Gideon Adlon, Bashir Salahuddin, Dagmara Domińczyk, and Christine Adams.

With a coproduction credit from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, Girl hopes that Ortega’s Wednesday fans will turn up to watch her on a Friday-Sunday at the multiplex. I haven’t seen a theater count for this yet and that could alter my forecast. The marketing campaign seems scant and my prediction reflects it. Miller’s might not be crossing $3 million.

Miller’s Girl opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million