Month: September 2023

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.

Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.

So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.

We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.

A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.

Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.

Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.

Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.

If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.

Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).

The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.

And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.

So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!

Predicted Nominees

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Ben Affleck, Air

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Supporting Actress is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Origin

Nearly a decade after Selma was nominated for Best Picture and seven years after 13th was up for Documentary Feature, Ana DuVernay could be back in the awards conversation with Origin. Adapted from Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the 2020 nonfiction novel covering various racial issues, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (2021’s Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) plays the book’s author Isabel Wilkerson. Costars include Jon Bernthal, Vera Farmiga, Audra McDonald, Niecy Nash-Betts, Nick Offerman, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Connie Nielsen, and Finn Wittrock.

At the Venice Film Festival, Origin received an appreciable reception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. The Neon release (scheduled for sometime late this year) could still struggle to break into the Oscar consciousness. Some of the reviews (while generally positive) have enough reservations that this may not be much of a player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nyad

In an unusual bit of Oscar history, Annette Bening would probably be a two-time Best Actress recipient if not for Hilary Swank. The latter took home the statue in 1999 for Boys Don’t Cry and Bening was likely runner-up for Best Picture winner American Beauty. In 2004, a late Million Dollar Baby surge gave Swank her second award with Bening’s performance in Being Julia probably in second position.

Nyad has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and November 3rd Netflix streaming debut. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, makers of the Oscar winning doc Free Solo, direct. It casts the five-time nominee as real-life swimmer Diana Nyad and critics are praising her performance. Same goes for costar Jodie Foster (in supporting), a two-time Actress victor like Swank who would also be vying for her sixth overall nod.

Both are possibilities as reviews are sturdy (100% on RT). I don’t think this wades into the Best Picture conversation. Both Actress and Supporting Actress look crowded already, but it would be foolish to discount either of these acting legends. Lucky for Bening, Ms. Swank doesn’t seem to have anything in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

A Haunting in Venice Box Office Prediction

Kenneth Branagh’s grandly mustachioed master sleuth Hercule Poirot is back in cinemas on September 15th with A Haunting in Venice. Based on Agatha Christie’s 1969 work Hallowe’en Party, this is the third mystery in the franchise that began with Branagh’s 2017 version of Murder on the Orient Express and continued last year with Death on the Nile. In addition to its director/star, the cast includes Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, and current Best Actress winner Michelle Yeoh.

The first trailer for Haunting definitely leaned on the horror elements of its story and not the fact that it’s a continuation of the Express and Nile series. That’s not surprising when you consider that Nile came in well under its predecessor. While the Orient remake made $28 million out of the gate and $102 million overall domestically, the oft delayed Nile only earned $12.9 million for its start and $45 million overall a year and a half ago.

That horror angle might be a smart one for 20th Century Studios, but genre fans might be satiated with The Nun II (out the weekend prior). I do think this manages to top Death though not by much.

A Haunting in Venice opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million

September 8-10 Box Office Predictions

A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Nun II Box Office Prediction
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Box Office Prediction

In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.

As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.

Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.

Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.

Here’s how I envision the top six:

1. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

6. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.

Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.

Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.

Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.

Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.

Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.

Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: All of Us Strangers

Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers has made quite an impact from its Telluride premiere over the weekend. A love and ghost story mashed into one, the writer/director loosely adapts a 1987 novel starring Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal (who scored a Best Actor nod last year for Aftersun), Jamie Bell, and Claire Foy.

Critics are hailing this as an emotionally resonant experience resulting in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Haigh directed Charlotte Rampling to a Best Actress nomination for 2015’s 45 Years. Scott could represent the best possibility in Best Actor, but that race is overflowing with possibilities. Perhaps he can grab onto the fifth slot that his costar Mescal managed a year ago. As for Mescal, Supporting Actor is starting to look even more crowded. It’s a similar story in Supporting Actress for Foy, who’s come awfully close to the final five before for First Man and Women Talking. She may have to wait.

While Best Picture isn’t out of the question, I could totally see Strangers getting an Adapted Screenplay mention and that being its solo nomination. There are usually a couple of writing hopefuls that are up only in that competition. That said, Fox Searchlight knows how to campaign. It’s also worth noting they will be doing so for Poor Things as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Priscilla

One year after Elvis landed 8 Oscar nominations (but no wins), your mind might be suspicious that this year’s Priscilla could also attract awards voters. Based on reaction from its Venice, you might be wrong. Sofia Coppola’s biopic casts Cailee Spaeny as The King’s young bride with Jacob Elordi as the legendary entertainer. The A24 release hits theaters on October 27th.

With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 95%, Priscilla enters what it clearly already a crowded BP and Actress race. The film and Spaeny are certainly not guaranteed to make the cuts (especially the former). Elordi could contend, but Supporting Actor inclusion might be a reach. Based on a 1985 memoir cowritten by the title subject, Coppola’s adapted screenplay could also struggle in a bustling field. Unlike her Lost in Translation from 20 years ago, don’t count on her making the director or writing races.

I suspect A24 will need to mount expert campaigns for anything beyond Spaeney in Actress and she’s already competing with the likes of Emma Stone (Poor Things), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Annette Bening (Nyad) to name a few. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Killer

David Fincher’s last five films have received at least one Oscar nomination with three (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, Mank) up for Best Picture. His latest is The Killer with a Venice premiere this weekend, limited theatrical release October 27th, and Netflix stream beginning on November 10th. The action thriller stars Michael Fassbender in the title role with a supporting cast including Arliss Howard, Charles Parnell, Kerry O’Malley, Sala Baker, Sophie Charlotte, and Tilda Swinton.

The reviews indicate this is right up Fincher’s alley as a cold tale of an assassin that is unquestionably pristinely made. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 88%. The reaction also hints that this will not be the awards player in the big categories that his last batch were. That quintet of previously nominated pics all nabbed acting nominations. Despite praise for Fassbender’s lead work, Best Actor already looks too crowded for his inclusion. It also sounds like Swinton in Supporting Actress is a non-starter.

Per usual with Fincher’s work, tech nods could come in Film Editing (that’s where Dragon Tattoo won), Cinematography (where Mank was victorious), and Score (where Social Network reigned supreme). There’s also the chance it’s the filmmaker’s first not nominated movie since 2007’s Zodiac. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Saltburn

Emerald Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five high profile nods in 2020: Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay (which it won), and Film Editing. She’s back again with Saltburn and it has debuted at Telluride prior to its November 24th limited release and December 1st wide bow. The psychological thriller stars Barry Keoghan (fresh off a Supporting Actor nod for last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin), Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E. Grant, Alison Oliver, Archie Madekwe, and Mulligan (in what’s said to be a short appearance).

Initial reaction out of Colorado is divergent. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 75%, but its detractors are rather loud. So are its ardent admirers. Chances for a Best Picture or Director nod are far less promising than for Young Woman. Voters could choose to honor Fennell once again with a nom in Original Screenplay but that’s iffy as well.

As far as acting mentions, only Keoghan seems to be a possibility. There are plenty of other hopefuls contending in movies that could land in BP and he could face an uphill climb. Techs like Cinematography and Production Design are feasible. Yet Saltburn doesn’t appear poised to follow Fennell’s first feature with its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…