D. Smith’s provocative and acclaimed doc Kokomo City was first unveiled at Sundance in January. Following four transgender sex workers in Georgia and New York, it won an audience prize when it screened at the Berlin Film Festival. Magnolia picked up the distribution rights and it is slated for domestic release on July 28th.
With a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, City‘s reviews are strong enough for potential awards consideration. If it manages to get buzz when it releases later next month (and it certainly could), this could be a contender for Documentary Feature that the Academy embraces. On the other hand, it might be too hot button for the unpredictable branch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.
Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.
The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.
Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Just as “Nuking the Fridge” has become shorthand for introducing unwanted material in a beloved franchise (courtesy of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull) – “Waving the Baby” may enter the lexicon thanks to The Flash. You’ll see what I mean in the opening scene of the DCEU adventure. There’s shoddy visual effects accompanying the term that may produce unintended laughter. That said, I kind of warmed up to this initial action sequence with Ezra Miller’s title character given a save the day assignment from Alfred the Butler (Jeremy Irons, reprising his role from Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Justice League). Like much of the first half, it’s light and quirky and (despite their offscreen troubles) Miller shines in a dual role. There’s genuine moments of intended laughter too. The second half is where this becomes overbaked and the frequent surprise cameos don’t save it. It’s a countdown to continued mediocrity after a sturdy start.
The Flash’s alter ego is Barry Allen and he’s assisting Ben Affleck’s version of the Caped Crusader (and others) as we begin. He’s doing a bit of the grunt work while his Justice League teammates handle cooler assignments. Barry’s mom (Maribel Verdú) was murdered when he was a youngster. His dad (Ron Livingston) was wrongly convicted of the crime and is imprisoned with an appeal on deck. The possibility of time travel is introduced giving Barry a potential green light to undo the childhood trauma and save his family. We know through countless features that going back to alter the future never works as intended. By the way, there’s some enjoyable reference to Back to the Future and additional 80s classics.
Before we know it, Barry/The Flash is stuck in a multiverse situation with a younger and not as scientifically gifted version of himself. In this world, Affleck doesn’t don the Batsuit. Instead we are given the chance to witness Michael Keaton back in the role for the first time in over 30 years. His Bruce Wayne is long out of the limelight, but the Barry’s visit to his Manor might get him to repeat iconic line readings once again.
There’s less memorable character reappearances in the alternate reality. Michael Shannon reprises his turn as General Zod from Man of Steel as does Antje Traue as his second-in-command. If you weren’t clamoring for that bad guy’s comeback, I get it. He was a weak nemesis a decade ago and he is again. This isn’t really Shannon’s fault, who’s a gifted performer in plenty of other films. He simply doesn’t have much of a role to flesh out. If comic book movies are as solid as the villains, The Flash is offtrack.
Of course, weak villains have been a staple of the DCEU and MCU and other factors often rescue them. For awhile, that’s the situation. Miller excels with the comedic timing and dramatic beats. Given that the initial hour plus focuses on the older and socially awkward Barry teaching dumber but happier Barry how to become a superhero, there’s plenty of entertainment value. Then it goes and clocks in at nearly two and half hours. Keaton’s return is welcome at first. Gimmicky? Sure. Sasha Calle’s debut as Supergirl is underwritten though her performance is promising if she’s given screen time in future entries.
The latter portions of The Flash are interchangeable from about every other genre experience. We’re talking loud, messy, and dull battles. By then, it doesn’t much matter that Keaton is in uniform or Miller’s performance is impressive. They’re drowned out by effects. The multiverse happenings (and we do see plenty of alternate realities with familiar faces) are becoming standard procedure thanks to Doctor Strange and Spider-Men. Barry’s familial dynamics are also well covered territory.
I’d have no trouble recommending The Flash if it stopped after about 75 minutes. Unfortunately it keeps running and the time remaining alters a universe in which it is ultimately satisfying.
After premiering to mixed reactions at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expands nationwide on June 23rd. The auteur’s distinctive mix of dry humor and drama looks to be in high supply and same goes for his impressive sprawling cast. This time around it includes plenty of Anderson regulars and some newbies. The list boasts Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Steve Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum.
With a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this is far from the peak of critical acclaim for the filmmaker. I doubt this approaches the $59 million domestic gross that 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel made in 2014 (his best earner). Yet this should eclipse predecessor The French Dispatch from October 2021. It took in just $16 million (this was also during theatrical COVID challenges).
City rolls out June 16th in six venues. I imagine it’ll have one of the biggest per theater averages of 2023. That doesn’t necessarily translate to impressive numbers when it expands between the coasts a week later. I’m skeptical that it manages $10 million.
Asteroid City opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Jennifer Lawrence enters new genre territory with No Hard Feelings on June 23rd. The raunchy comedy casts the Oscar winner as a down on her luck Uber driver hired to teach a 19-year-old (Andrew Barth Feldman) the birds and bees. Gene Stupnitsky, who made the 2019 sleeper hit Good Boys, directs. Costars include Matthew Broderick, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, Scott MacArthur, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.
It’s been a minute since Lawrence has graced the big screen. She was in the supporting cast as Mystique for Dark Phoenix four years ago, but you have to go back five years to Red Sparrow since her last headlining multiplex appearance. Her last two features (Don’t Look Up, Causeway) went the streaming route. Audiences are accustomed to seeing her in action flicks and dramas so this is certainly a test.
As I’ve mentioned a lot over the past few years, it’s a challenge for original comedies to break out. Plenty of viewers may simply wait until it’s ready for home consumption. If this had come out at the height of Lawrence’s bankability, I might be offering a different outlook.
Sony Pictures won’t like this comp, but Rough Night with Scarlett Johansson was another example of a popular actress branching out to this type of movie. Debuting in June six years ago, the result was a soft $8 million start. I’ll say this gets over that figure, but not by too much.
No Hard Feelings opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million
My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.
Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.
In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.
One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)
12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)
18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12.Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)
13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)
Droped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Jane Levy, A Little Prayer
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporing Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.
I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.
Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.
The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.
And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:
1. The Flash
Predicted Gross: $83.2 million
2. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
5. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
6. The Blackening
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.
The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.
Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.
Lionsgate would love to see The Blackening post Scary Movie style numbers when it debuts June 16th. That’s probably wishful thinking. The horror parody comes from Tim Story, who directed Barbershop, 2005 and 2007’s Fantastic Four pics, and the two Ride Along action comedies. Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins (who co-scripted), Antoinette Robertson, Sinqua Walls, Jay Pharoah, and Yvonne Orji are among the cast.
When this screened at the Toronto Film Festival way back in September, early word-of-mouth was pretty encouraging. That said, comedies in general have failed to cash in over the past several years. Over the Memorial Day weekend, both The Machine and About My Father didn’t break out.
The Blackening could surprise if African-American audiences and horror fans turn out. If they do, an opening of over $10 million could be achievable. Given the genre’s struggles, I’ll put it under. Another limiting factor could be the reported smallish screen count of 1800 venues.
The Blackening opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million
Disney/Pixar hopes the elements are there for a hit when Elemental debuts on June 16th. The 27th feature from the studio comes from director Peter Sohn, who made a rare Pixar disappointment in 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.
Four years ago, Toy Story 4 took in over $400 million domestically. It’s been a rather unimpressive run for the Mouse Factory’s nearly 30-year-old production company since. Onward debuted to $39 million and that figure was likely low since it opened in March of 2020 just as COVID shutdowns were beginning. Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went the Disney Plus route due to the pandemic. Last summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a $50 million premiere and $118 million eventual stateside gross (well under expectations).
I don’t see Elemental reversing the downturn. Some youngsters will be preoccupied with The Flash or maybe they’ll go see Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse again. Reviews won’t get audiences to rush out either as the Rotten Tomatoes is 63% (low for Pixar).
Add all that up and I think this will be lucky to get past $35 million.
Elemental opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million
**Blogger’s Update (06/13): I’m revised my prediction down from $90.2 million to $83.2 million**
Warner Bros hopes for the 13th DCEU picture is lucky at the box office as The Flash bolts into multiplexes on June 16th. It’s been a bumpy ride to the big screen between COVID delays and Ezra Miller (playing the title character) and their personal troubles. Andy Muschietti, who made the two It chapters, directs. Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck reprise their roles as Batman with Sasha Calle debuting as Supergirl. Costars include Michael Shannon (reprising his General Zod role from Man of Steel), Ron Livingston, Maribel Verdú, Kiersey Clemons, Antje Traue, and Jeremy Irons. Expect other noteworthy cameos.
The DCEU has had a rough go lately. Their last two titles, Black Adam and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, were significant financial disappointments. James Gunn and Peter Safran were recently tapped to run the struggling franchise. The Flash hopes to right the ship. The first four entries in the series (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) all grossed $100 million plus in their debut weekends. The next eight movies did not with the second Shazam! only taking in $30 million out of the gate.
Reviews are fairly positive with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. If you subscribe to the all publicity is good publicity notion, the negative ink surrounding its lead shouldn’t hinder its potential (and the studio is keeping Miller off the circuit). While The Flash isn’t as iconic a character as the Caped Crusader, the reemergence of Keaton as that character could draw in viewers for a nostalgia fix (it’s been over 30 years since he’s donned the Batsuit).
A best case scenario is The Flash achieving the second best start of 2023 and topping the $120 million that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse achieved. The worst case result could be not reaching nine figures like those first four superhero tales. That might be the case and it could end up falling outside the top five openings of 2023 (under the $95 million of The Little Mermaid). My forecast puts this on pace with the $93 million that Justice League made back in 2017 (where Miller first fleshed out this character).
The Flash opening weekend prediction: $83.2 million
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