Focus Features is hoping an older and mostly female audience is kindled by their fond memories of part 1 when Book Club: The Next Chapter opens on May 12th. The sequel to the 2018 rom com features Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen, Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, and Craig T. Nelson reprising their roles. Bill Holderman is back in the director’s seat.
With the action moved to Italy, Chapter seeks to serve a crowd often underserved in the summer season. It’s a formula that paid off handsomely in the same mid-May time frame five years ago. Book Club started with $13.6 million and continued exceeding expectations with small drop-offs in subsequent frames. It ended up earning nearly $70 million domestically and just over $100 million worldwide.
I don’t see any reason why this would fall much under the original in its first weekend. There’s another recent comp in 80 for Brady (also with Fonda) as it premiered with a similar $12.5 million (though it did suffer larger declines afterwards than Club).
I’ll say this debuts right in range with its predecessor. It could go slightly over or under and I’ll pick the latter.
Book Club: The Next Chapter opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
For my Knights of the Zodiac prediction, click here:
In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:
Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.
Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.
That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $125.3 million
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
3. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Love Again
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 28-30)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.
Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.
Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.
Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.
Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…
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