Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.
The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.
Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.
Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:
Toni Collette has had a fascinating filmography when it comes to recognition from major awards shows. Despite plenty of acclaimed performances across all genres, her sole nod from the Academy came in Supporting Actress for 1999’s The Sixth Sense. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes) didn’t mention her for Sense, but have nominated her twice in lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy for her breakout role in 1995’s Muriel’s Wedding and 2006’s Little Miss Sunshine. Critics Choice, meanwhile, singled her out for 2018’s Hereditary. In other words, there’s no consistency to be found.
This Friday, Collette headlines the whacky (get it?) crime comedy Mafia Mamma. She plays a middle-aged suburbanite thrust into the high concept of inheriting Cosa Nostra duties. Catherine Hardwicke (maker of Thirteen and Twilight) directs with a supporting cast including Monica Bellucci, Sophia Nomvete, Eduardo Scarpetta, Alfonso Perugini, and Francesco Mastroianni.
The Bleecker Street production wasn’t made for Academy consideration. However, it’s not crazy to think Collette could contend for another Actress mention in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes (35 years after Michelle Pfeiffer was up in the same category for Married to the Mob).
Yet the reviews might have you pondering if Collette owed a debt to someone. Critics are analyzing this rather harshly with a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. It’s safe to assume that Mamma won’t be up for anything. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Reviews are out for this Friday’s Renfield and the general consensus is that it doesn’t suck. From The Lego Batman Movie and The Tomorrow War maker Chris McKay, Nicolas Cage stars as Dracula with Nicholas Hoult as his title character employee. Awkwafina, Ben Schwartz, Adrian Martinez, and Shohreh Aghdashloo costar.
With a 72% Rotten Tomatoes score, the bulk of the praise is going to Cage for his unsurprisingly demented work as the iconic vampire. Universal is certainly not looking at this as an awards contender, but it’s fair to wonder whether a tech race like Makeup and Hairstyling could be in play. Horror comedies have seen past successes there, including 80s winners An American Werewolf in London and Beetlejuice. In recent years, the genre has been underrepresented. I wouldn’t expect Renfield to change that, but it’s at least possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The title card for 65 doesn’t emerge onscreen until 16 minutes into the runtime. That’s actually about one-sixth of the way through and (I think) it’s meant to serve as a surprise reveal. The trailer already spoiled it because (umm… spoiler alert?) that number refers to 65 million years ago on Earth when so-so looking CG dinosaurs roamed freely. I suspect a lot more roamed freely, but this movie’s budget might not have supported Jurassic Park or World level sizes.
Mills (Adam Driver) is a pilot on the planet Somaris whose sick daughter (Chloe Coleman) causes him to take on a two-year expedition to pay for her treatment. When an asteroid field causes his ship to crash, he lands on a planet filled the aforementioned creatures. It turns out (as we find either via TV spots, trailers, or after 16 minutes) that this extinction level event is about to make the dinos disappear. Alien Mills has collided into our planet at an inopportune time. He discovers one survivor from the accident – a preteen who speaks a foreign language named Koa (Ariana Greenblatt). The duo must find the other half of the wreckage lying atop a mountain that contains an escape hatch.
It’s a long haul to that locale as their words are lost in translation and future relics hunt them down. They do manage to bond and, yes, there are correlations to his ill offspring. The script from directors Scott Beck and Bryan Woods (who’ve done much better when they penned A Quiet Place) injects some humor into their interplay for about two or three minutes. A tone of somberness rules this for the remaining hour and a half.
As they make their uphill climb to safety, I was disappointed in how flat 65 feels. The effects are mostly bland. Of course, technicians haven’t really improved dino design since Jurassic Park 30 years ago and this is no exception. There is some occasional striking production design. Driver is a fine actor with a nothing part and there’s little character development with Koa either. At its best, this is serviceable. For the most part, what is happening on Earth is unremarkable.
A24 just hit the Oscar jackpot with Everything Everywhere All at Once and they have another multi-genre family opus opening in limited release this Friday. Beau Is Afraid is the third feature from writer/director Ari Aster behind acclaimed scary flicks Hereditary and Midsommar. With a $35 million budget, this is the biggest budget yet for the distributor. The three hour episodic mix of mommy issues, satire, and horror is headlined by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast including stage legend Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Ryan, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
The review embargo has just lifted and the reactions are all over the place. A 75% Rotten Tomatoes score is the number at this early stage. There are some recurring thoughts among the write-ups. One is that Aster takes gigantic swings. Some pay off. Some don’t. Another is that he’s perhaps given too much freedom this time and that the runtime is exceedingly long. There are comparisons to Charlie Kaufman and numerous mentions of Freud. You also get the impression that plenty of moviegoers will strongly dislike it. The word unhinged pops up in more than one synopsis.
It could be telling that Beau skipped the film festival circuit and opted for this spring release. A24 might suspect they don’t have an awards player (though you could correctly point out that Everything Everywhere came out around the same time). That said, they might opt to throw their serious campaigning behind the upcoming Past Lives (which drew raves at Sundance). While Phoenix is drawing praise for his performance, it could be a tall order for him to nab a Best Actor nod. Perhaps this fall’s Napoleon gives him a better shot. Some critics have singled out LuPone, but apparently her actual screen time is limited.
Beau will undoubtedly have its ardent supporters and fierce detractors. That could be a mix that doesn’t result in significant Oscar buzz. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.
Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).
The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.
Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.
Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $74.9 million
2. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Air
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Suzume
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
6. The Pope’s Exorcist
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.
John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.
Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.
Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.
Finally,faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.
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The environmental heist thriller How to Blow Up a Pipeline debuted in limited release over Easter weekend to solid results. From director Daniel Goldhaber, this is a fictionalized adaptation of Andreas Malm’s nonfiction 2021 novel. The cast includes Ariela Barer (who also co-scripted), Kristine Froseth, Lukas Gage, Forrest Goodluck, Sasha Lane, Jayme Lawson, Marcus Scribner, Jake Weary, and Irene Bedard.
Pipeline first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to impressive reviews and was quickly snatched up by Neon for distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 95%. I would not be surprised if its distributor (who shepherded Triangle of Sadness to a BP nom last year) make a serious campaign push here.
It could be a long shot for BP, but I wouldn’t totally discount it. This could also be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Suzume is the latest animated fantasy from Makoto Shinkai, maker of 2019’s acclaimed Weathering with You. The Japanese production comes from Toho, the studio behind Godzilla and the Demon Slayer pics that have recently posted impressive grosses stateside.
In fact, Toho’s titles in the U.S. have started to develop a familiar pattern of front loaded hauls. In March of 2022, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 made over $17 million during its first frame. That ended up being over half of its eventual $33 million domestic take. Just last month, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village made off with $10.1 million in a special engagement sole weekend.
Like those efforts, Suzume has already made a killing in its home country. With over $100 million in the bank, it is the fourth highest grossing film in Japan from last year.
Opening on approximately 2000 screens, this could hit low double digits like Swordsmith. Compared with next weekend’s other newcomers, that would put it behind Renfield and perhaps ahead of The Pope’s Exorcist. I’m going to put it in higher single digits and that’s still in front of Exorcist.
Not to be confused with The Pope’s Sous-Chef or The Pope’s Orthopedic Surgeon, Sony Pictures gives us The Pope’s Exorcist on April 14th. Julius Avery (Overlord, Samaritan) directs the supernatural horror tale with Russell Crowe as the Pontiff’s chosen demon extractor. Costars include Daniel Zovatto, Alex Essoe, Ralph Ineson, and Franco Nero. ‘
This particular genre subsection has conjured up its share of pics in recent years. Titles like 2018’s The Possession of Hannah Grace and last fall’s Prey for the Devil managed $6.5 million and $7.2 million for their respective starts. 2014’s Deliver Us from Evil made just under $10 million. Meanwhile 2012’s The Possession and 2011’s The Rite hit $17 million and $14 million out of their gates.
Exorcist has competition from Renfield, the vampiric comedy with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, premiering directly against it. Evil Dead Rises drops a week later. I think Crowe and company can gross north of $10 million, but I’ll say it falls under.
The Pope’s Exorcist opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
Universal Pictures is hoping horror and comedy fans add Renfield to their cinematic menu when it debuts April 14th. Nicholas Hoult stars as the title character and beleaguered assistant to Nicolas Cage’s Count Dracula. Chris McKay, who made The Lego Batman Movie and The Tomorrow War, directs. Costars include Awkwafina, Ben Schwartz, Adrian Martinez, and Shohreh Aghdashloo.
Early critical reaction is encouraging with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Will audiences sink their teeth into it? Renfield arrives on the same day as The Pope’s Exorcist with Russell Crowe and it could siphon away genre fans looking for a scary experience minus the laughs. Both pics hit multiplexes a week before Evil Dead Rise and some fright fest fans may simply wait for that.
Decent word-of-mouth could get this to high teens or even $20 million in the best case scenario. I’ll say double digits to low teens is likelier given the competition.
Renfield opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
For my The Pope’s Exorcist prediction, click here:
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