It’s been 20 years since the heyday of Jennifer Lopez rom coms like The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan, but the actress returns to the genre (with a heavy dose of music) on February 11th in Marry Me. Directed by Kat Coiro, Lopez stars as a spurned pop star who strikes up a romance with Owen Wilson. The supporting cast includes Maluma, John Bradley, and Sarah Silverman.
Originally scheduled for Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 before the inevitable COVID delay, it will be available on Peacock streaming same day. Clearly hoping for a healthy female turnout, plenty of viewers could opt to RSVP from home rather than walk down the theater aisle.
J-Lo’s last foray into this territory was 2018’s Second Act, which debuted over a packed Christmas weekend to only $6.5 million (it legged out decently to nearly $40 million). I’ll project Marry Me manages to top that figure, but it still could struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it just manages to.
Marry Me opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
The last major precursor nominations before Tuesday’s Oscar nods come out tomorrow and it’s the British Academy Film Awards or BAFTAs. Let’s discuss them a bit, shall we? The BAFTAs can be a confusing branch to figure out.
For starters, the number of nominees in each category is a tad puzzling. Best Film has five as do the tech races and screenplay derbies. Director and the acting competitions contain 6 while Animated Film is 4. However, Documentary and “Film Not in the English Language” is 5. Got that?
While past years have matched the Oscars fairly closely in the big categories, 2020 was an exception. While 4 of the 5 Best Film contenders ended up nabbing BP mentions from the Academy, it was just 3 of the directors. For Best Actor, it was also 3 but in Best Actress only two. Same goes for Supporting – 3 in Actor, 2 in Actress.
In other words, projecting the BAFTAs is a major crapshoot but I’ll try. Since it’s British voters, titles such as the BBC’s After Love are expected to perform well in some of the major races.
Another major note – I am only forecasting competitions where there’s a direct correlation to the Academy. Therefore I’m not weighing in on Best British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, or Casting.
For each race, I’ll give you my picks (and I triple checked the numbers) and an alternate. A recap on how I did and my general thoughts are up tomorrow and my final Oscar predictions will be up Friday!
Guillermo del Toro has been making geek shows geared to movie geeks for years. In Nightmare Alley, based on a 1946 novel and the picture that followed it a year later, he gorgeously opens up his stylistic bag of tricks to give us a film noir where the scariest creatures are of the human sort. Geek shows take on a different meaning as the traveling carnivals where we spend the first act features one. That’s where spectators with jaws agape watch a drug addled performer (“geeks” in the show’s vocabulary) bite the heads off of chickens. All for the price of a quarter or two!
We meet Stan Carlisle (Bradley Cooper) in 1939 as he happens upon the larger road show filled with psychics, strongmen, and beautiful ladies with electrical currents running through them. He’s destitute and jobless and picks up menial duties from Clem (Willem Dafoe), who runs the demented circus. Stan is an audacious fellow who’s not fearful of romancing good-natured performer Molly (Rooney Mara) or picking up mentalist tips from the alcoholic Pete (David Strathairn) or his clairvoyant (with help from cue cards) wife Zeena (Toni Collette). He occasionally takes pity on the resident geek (Paul Anderson) but it’s clear Stan is mostly looking out for himself. An opening flashback sequence shows a strained relationship with his deceased father who was also a fan of the drink. While dad, mentor Pete, and that poor chicken feeder suffer from substance abuse, Stan’s vices are hubris and power.
The opening scenes of Alley explore this fascinating world with the exquisite production design, cinematography, and impeccable lighting that we would anticipate from its maker. This is constantly a visually striking experience. When we flash forward two years later, Stan has used the teachings of his colleagues to move up to the big city (Buffalo) and deem himself a psychic. With Molly as his assistant and companion, his dinner theater act attracts the attention of the city’s elite. Dr. Lilith Ritter (Cate Blanchett), a psychologist, tries to unmask Stan’s schemes during such a performance. It only serves to fool more of the attendees. The two decide to team up and swindle movers and shakers like a judge (Peter MacNeill) mourning a son and his devastated wife (Mary Steenburgen). For a price, Stan will convince them that their loved one is with them in spirit. The doctor provides the backstory from such grieving former patients.
Stan and Ritter also engage in therapeutic sessions that occasionally crackle with intensity. The two actors are up to the task with Blanchett picture perfect as the femme fatale and Cooper’s aw shucks Southern drawl cloaking his wild ambitions. Mara’s Molly gets lost in the shuffle as Stan’s pining is not just for a quick buck, but for the bad doc as well.
The ladder climbing of his consultations leads to Ezra Grindle (Richard Jenkins) and, at last, Stan may have bitten off more of an assignment than he can chew. Not a typical crime boss type of figure, the calm but firm Grindle looks for otherworldly messages from a former love. If Stan doesn’t produce, he may lose more than the fee.
Nightmare Alley is worth seeing for its look alone. Mr. del Toro is known for his onscreen creatures (from Cronos to Pan’s Labyrinth to his Oscar-winning The Shape of Water). We don’t see those types in his latest, but there’s monsters around and Stan is among them. Their habits are often just as frightening. When Dafoe’s Clem explains how the geeks are hired, it’s a tad hair raising.
Not all is as pleasing as the aesthetics. del Toro is clearly having a blast playing in the noir sandbox. So much so that he doesn’t seem to realize that these genre excursions should be lean and mean in their running time. Alley plods along for 150 minutes. Plenty of the characters are mean though it’s not so lean in execution. There are sequences that land effectively after the carnivorous first act but plenty that don’t match their potency. On the plus side, it’s got a humdinger of an ending with its darkly appealing beginnings and that makes it worth the price of admission.
Hercule Poirot is back in mystery solving form (quite a while after he was supposed to be) when Death on the Nile sets sail in theaters on February 11th. The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express finds Kenneth Branagh back as the famed Agatha Christie sleuth. As he did with Express, the star directs himself. Tom Bateman reprises his role from the predecessor. The supporting cast includes Annette Bening, Russell Brand, Ali Fazal, Dawn French, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer (the pic was shot was shot prior to troubling details about his personal life surfaced), Rose Leslie, Emma Mackey, Sophie Okonedo, Jennifer Saunders, and Letitia Wright.
Budgeted at a reported $90 million, Nile was originally slated for multiplexes in December 2020 before numerous COVID delays. In that time, Branagh made Belfast and it’s become one of the favorites to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Back in 2017, Orient debuted to a better than anticipated $28 million. It stalled a bit in subsequent weekends, but eventually hit just over $100 million domestically. At that time, audiences gave it a B Cinemascore grade – not bad though certainly not impressive.
That calls into question whether moviegoers will be excited for another dose of Poirot and his suspects. Furthermore, Nile will attempt to skew towards a female crowd. Some could be distracted with the release of the Jennifer Lopez rom com Marry Me. There’s also a football game on Sunday that could eat into the grosses.
I deduce that this might make about half of what Express accomplished for its start.
Death on the Nile opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
February kicks off with two new entries that should place 1-2 on the charts. Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters return in Jackass Forever and the Roland Emmerich disaster pic Moonfall starring Halle Berry are the debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
It’s been years since we’ve seen a Jackass experience and I do question if younger viewers aren’t as familiar with the franchise. On the other hand, no film in the series (including 2013 spinoff Bad Grandpa) has opened below $20 million and I won’t predict that this will. My low 20s forecast easily puts it in first place.
As for Moonfall, I’ve got it premiering in the same range as 2017’s Geostorm and that’s in the lower double digits range. That should certainly be good for second, but is weak considering the reported $140 million price tag.
The trio of S sequels that have reigned supreme in the last couple of weeks – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should all slide 2 spots and populate the rest of the top five.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Moonfall
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. Scream
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (January 28-30)
In a weekend that saw no major releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily ruled for the sixth out of its seven weekends. The MCU sensation took in another $11 million, reaching a tad higher than my $10.3 million projection. It stands just $25 million away from overtaking Avatar as the third biggest domestic earner of all time.
Scream was in the runner-up position again and it held better than I anticipated. The horror sequel made $7.2 million in its third frame compared to my $5.5 million estimate and it’s grossed $62 million.
Sing 2 was third with $4.6 million, edging my $4.2 million take and it’s up to $134 million.
Redeeming Love was fourth in its sophomore outing with $1.7 million (I said $1.8 million) for $6 million overall.
The King’s Man rounded out the top five at $1.6 million (I went with $1.3 million). Tally is $33 million.
Lena Dunham gained notoriety through her HBO series Girls and five years after its conclusion, she’s brought her directorial effort Sharp Stick to Sundance. The comedy stars Kristine Froseth, Taylour Paige, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Jon Bernthal, Scott Speedman, Tommy Dorfman, and Dunham herself.
Stick is measured at just 45% on Rotten Tomatoes and is one of the festival titles that drew a truly mixed to negative reaction. While Girls received plenty of Emmy nominations during its run, awards chatter is highly unlikely to materialize for Dunham’s cinematic project. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focused on the Russian opposition leader who was mysteriously poisoned in 2020, Navalny struck a chord with Sundance festival goers and won the documentary audience award and festival favorite prize.
It comes from filmmaker Daniel Roher and is slated for distribution on CNN and via HBO Max in the early portion of the year. Standing at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this will attempt to carry its buzz forward through awards season and could absolutely be a factor in the Doc Feature competition at next year’s Oscars.
Sundance is often a successful launching pad in the genre. Last year, a third of the 15 doc contenders (including Flee, Faye Dayi, and Summer of Soul) got their starts in Park City. Navalny may be on the list this time in 2023 and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
Two major Oscar precursors dropped today and it’s a good day to be the Ricardos as Aaron Sorkin’s Lucy and Desi pic make the PGA’s top ten cut, as did Netflix’s musical Tick, Tick… Boom!
Here are your 10 PGA nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
That means I went 8 out of 10 for my projections. The general thinking (and one that I shared) is that 8 pictures were safe: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story. That turned out to be accurate.
The real battle was for the last 2 spots and they went to Ricardos and Boom! PGA has a history of nominating moneymakers and that’s why I chose No Time to Die to make the list (others were putting Spider-Man: No Way Home in the mix). Neither did so and that might end discussions on whether either of them could make it with the Academy.
I also had House of Gucci getting in and its PGA omission decreases its viability in the Oscar BP derby. Other notables to miss include Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Truth be told – the PGA lineup could easily be the Oscar one. However, that is hardly ever the case and we’ll see how it shakes out when I update my predictions tomorrow.
It’s also true that the five contenders in the Directors Guild Awards rarely match the Oscars (usually it’s 4 out of five). My quintet of Academy hopefuls has stayed steady over recent weeks: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (Wet Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
And that’s exactly the lineup that DGA revealed today. I went 4 of 5 because I had Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) in over Anderson. A DGA nod could have helped others on the outside looking in like Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) or Joel Coen (Macbeth).
As I explained in my predictions yesterday, you have to go back to 2009 for the last year in which DGA/Oscar matched in Best Director. It could absolutely happen in 2021 and, unlike PGA, I may continue to project it that way.
As mentioned, look for my penultimate 2021 Oscar updates tomorrow!
Roland Emmerich, maker of Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012, has never met a disaster scenario he didn’t like. So let’s have the moon hurtle toward Earth and potentially destroy humanity, shall we? That’s the concept of Moonfall, out February 4th. The sci-fi extravaganza comes with a whopping reported budget of $140 million and its cast includes Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, John Bradley, Michael Pena, Charlie Plummer, Kelly Yu, and Donald Sutherland.
This one could have a tough time making that budget back and it better hope for robust international grosses. Emmerich is not the drawing power he was a quarter century ago. His last feature, 2019’s Midway, started with just over $17 million (though it is worth noting that was slightly above expectations).
It also might not help that moviegoers looking for mindless entertainment have Jackass Forever debuting directly against it. The best scenario for Moonfall could be $20 million, but that could be a giant leap. I’m thinking a premiere similar to Geostorm (which started north of $13 million) might be where this lands.
Moonfall opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 