Year: 2022

June 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Universal is looking for the dinosaurs to rule the box office landscape for the sixth time with Jurassic World: Dominion. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Jurassic World: Dominion Box Office Prediction

Dominion is the third feature in the second Jurassic trilogy and the numbers could be assisted by melding cast members from the original trilogy with the current one. I’m projecting it’ll improve on the opening weekend of predecessor Fallen Kingdom, but not approach the $200M+ debut of Jurassic World. That said – I have a strange feeling it might underperform so check back to see if my projection shifts later this week.

Top Gun: Maverick will be the runner-up after two incredible weeks on top including an astonishing sophomore hold (more on that below). It had no competition this past weekend and the dinos should eat into its grosses. Even with Dominion around, it still may only drop in the 40-45% range… maybe even less.

The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bad Guys, and The Bob’s Burgers Movie. 

Here’s how I see it:

1. Jurassic World: Dominion

Predicted Gross: $155.3 million

2. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $58.8 million

3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. The Bob’s Burgers Movie

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (June 3-5)

In a turn of events that was even more impressive than its Memorial Day weekend rollout, Top Gun: Maverick is officially a phenomenon as it dropped only 29%. That means a #1 frame of $90 million – towering over my $67.5 million projection. The number is the 8th largest sophomore output of all time. For perspective – it’s $6 million higher than Spider-Man: No Way Home and just $13 million below what  The Avengers made during the same weekend. It’s the best hold we’ve ever witnessed for a picture that debuted above $100 million. The ten-day tally is $295 million and the sky looks to be the limit.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness remained in second with $9.1 million. My guess? $9.1 million! The MCU behemoth is up to $388 million.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie fell a steep 63% in its second serving with $4.6 million, a bit under my $5.3 million prediction. Total is $22 million.

The Bad Guys took fourth with $3.3 million (I said $3.1 million) as it inches close to the century mark with $87 million.

Downton Abbey: A New Era rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, in line with my $3.2 million estimate for $35 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Top Gun: Maverick Review

Sun drenched SoCal nostalgia permeates every land, air, and beach surface of Top Gun: Maverick and it’s a pleasure to bask in the glow. Many a franchise lately has attempted to tap into our sentimentality and many have failed. 36 years after the original, Maverick elevates what preceded it while making us misty about those very events from the mid 80s. Perhaps most thrilling is watching a movie star firmly in control of what’s made him a headliner for five decades.

Captain Pete Mitchell aka Maverick (Tom Cruise) has refused upward promotion in the Navy while spending the bulk of his working hours skyward as a test pilot. The romance that took his breath away with Kelly McGillis is seemingly long dormant. His friendship with Iceman (Val Kilmer), now a decorated Admiral, saves his tail after a work mishap. Instead of washing out, he’s sent back to San Diego as a TOPGUN teacher. Against the wishes of a Vice Admiral who goes by Cyclone (Jon Hamm), Maverick is tasked with instructing a new generation of pilots.

Their mission (and they’re forced to accept it) is to destroy an unnamed enemy nation’s uranium enrichment plant. It is (ahem) a potentially impossible mission and Maverick’s tutelage is complicated by one of the students. Rooster (Miles Teller) is the son of the late Goose (Anthony Edwards) from the original. You may recall that he perished in the arms of the leading man and therefore eliminated his ability to talk to anyone except for metaphorically.

While the dynamic between the teacher and his pupil is the pic’s emotional through line, there’s subplots aplenty. This includes Maverick’s courtship of Penny (Jennifer Connelly), who checks the boxes of being an ex-flame, single mother, and bar owner where standards from the 1960s can be drunkenly belted out. We also get a truly emotional sequence with Cruise and Kilmer made more touching by the latter’s real world health challenges. And, of course, there’s a whole new crop of pilots. Most memorable, by far, is the cocky Hangman (Glen Powell). You’ll leave the theater convinced Powell is going to become a major headliner himself.

Then there’s the fact that technology has soared by leaps and bounds since the first one. To put it simply – the aerial battles in the third act are awesome and I would suggest an IMAX venue to take it in. As mentioned, many fan service attempts in recent times have been serviceable at best or less. Top Gun: Maverick, with its megawatt star, is more than that. It earns its stripes.

***1/2 (out of four)

The Lost City Review

Coasting on the adequate chemistry of its two leads, The Lost City might stick with you for about as long as the romance paperbacks penned by Sandra Bullock’s character. In other words – not for long but you won’t feel guilty while it lasts. This isn’t a remake of 1984’s Romancing the Stone though it certainly feels thematically similar.

Like Kathleen Turner’s character in that action comedy from nearly four decades ago, Loretta Sage (Bullock) writes steamy love stories while her own existence is a lonely one. She’s recently widowed from her archaeologist husband whose work influenced her novels. After prodding from her determined publisher Beth (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Loretta reluctantly embarks on a book tour alongside Alan (Channing Tatum). He’s the cover model for her bibliography (think Fabio) and he’s known as Dash. His fame eclipses the author and she’s prepared to kill him off and retire to her bathtub with a glass of Chardonnay.

The plan hits a snag when kooky billionaire Abigail Fairfax (Daniel Radcliffe) snags Loretta. He’s convinced she can decipher a code to a lost treasure – make that Lost City – mentioned in one of her books. The locale is a remote one in The Atlantic so Alan pursues her along with the mysterious man of action Jack Trainer (Brad Pitt). Think of him as a bit like Michael Douglas’s lead in Romancing without actually being the lead.

Decked out in a glittery purple onesie that she wouldn’t dare don had she known kidnapping would be involved, what you expect is what you get from Bullock. Same goes for Tatum. Fortunately for us, they’re both better than serviceable. The supporting players elevate the material at times, especially Radcliffe playing against type and Randolph (so good in Dolemite Is My Name) providing solid comic relief.

Directed by brothers Adam and Aaron Nee, The Lost City often feels built from the spare parts of superior vehicles. It never crashes and burns due to the talent involved. Both Loretta and Alan have moments searching for the right words as their plot mandated courtship blossoms. I don’t have to search too hard – this is passable.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: RRR

S.S. Rajamouli’s three-hour action epic RRR took in $13 million this spring domestically, but was a smash in its native country of India. Starring N.T. Rama Rao Jr., Ram Charan, Ajay Devgn, Alia Bhatt, Ray Stevenson, and Alison Doody, it’s picked up plenty of new viewers now that it’s available for streaming on Netflix.

With an 88% score on Rotten Tomatoes, it will be interesting to see if India mounts a spirited campaign for International Feature Film. I imagine they will. While RRR (that’s Rise Roar Revolt by the way) may not be your typical fare in the category (and there’s potential heavy hitters on the way like Broker and Bardo), it could have enough admirers to at least make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Phantom of the Open

Back in 2015, Mark Rylance scored an upset Supporting Actor Oscar victory over Sylvester Stallone (Creed) for his work in Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies. He hasn’t made it back to the dance since, but he’s got two performances in 2022 generating praise.

The first was the spring’s spy drama The Outfit and the latest is The Phantom of the Open. The biographical comedic drama casts Rylance as Maurice Flitcroft, a golfer of questionable abilities who still managed to play the PGA Tour in the 1970s. Craig Roberts directs with a supporting cast including Sally Hawkins and Rhys Ifans.

Critics are mostly being kind and it holds a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m skeptical this gets enough stateside exposure to become Rylance’s second nod. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if his performance here or in The Outfit lands him a BAFTA nomination. Another possibility could be making the cut for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hustle

Adam Sandler likely came close to a Best Actor nod in 2019 with Uncut Gems. Anytime the comedian makes a dramatic turn, it’s worth checking into whether that kind of buzz materializes again. Hustle hits select theaters tomorrow before streaming on Netflix June 8th (coinciding with the NBA Finals). Jeremiah Zagar directs with a supporting cast including Queen Latifah, Ben Foster, Robert Duvall, Heidi Gardner, and Juancho Hernangomez. Newly minted billionaire LeBron James coproduces and there’s appearances by numerous NBA players such as Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, and Kyle Lowry.

Playing a basketball scout bringing a troubled player over to the big leagues,  early reviews indicate this is an effective and often rousing crowdpleaser. Sandler is getting good notices, but not to the level that placed Gems on many a top ten list of its year’s best.

From the sounds of it, Hustle should find plenty of fans. However, I doubt it will compete for any trophies at awards ceremonies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jurassic World: Dominion Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (06/08): My prediction for Dominion has fallen… from $165.3M to $155.3M

Two generations of Jurassic actors team up for the release of Dominion on June 10th. I’m also told there are dinosaurs involved. Closing out the trilogy that began with the record breaking Jurassic World seven summers ago, Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard join forces with familiar faces that populated some of the original trilogy – Sam Neill, Laura Dern, and Jeff Goldblum. Other costars include BD Wong, Omar Sy, Isabella Sermon, Justice Smith, Daniella Pineda, DeWanda Wise, Mamoudou Athie, Campbell Scott, Scott Haze, and Dichen Lachman. Colin Trevorrow, who made the 2015 entry but not the 2018 sequel, is back in the director’s seat.

As mentioned, when the dinos came back in 2015, it set the all-time ; the domestic opening with $208 million (that held for six months until Star Wars: The Force Awakens dropped). It eventually made $652 million. Three years later, the lesser regarded Fallen Kingdom started with lesser numbers. The premiere was $148 million with an overall gross of $417 million.

My hunch is that the mixing of stars from nearly three decades ago with Pratt and Howard could push this to better earnings than its predecessor. On the flip side, I don’t see it hitting over $200 million like Jurassic World. This might debut in the middle range of its trilogy counterparts and perhaps closer to Kingdom. 

Jurassic World: Dominion opening weekend prediction: $155.3 million

June 3-5 Box Office Predictions

With no wide release newcomers coming our way as June kicks off, Tom will easily cruise to another weekend atop the charts after the history making debut of Top Gun: Maverick. 

The long in development sequel set holiday records (more on that below). Many Memorial Day weekend openers see hefty declines in their sophomore frames, but that fate may not apply here. Maverick received a rare A+ Cinemascore meaning audiences (like critics) are loving what they’re seeing. That may draw out viewers who didn’t wish to deal with the crowds in addition to repeat viewers. I’ll say it dips less than 50%.

Slots 2-5 should remain stagnant with Jurassic World: Dominion on deck for the following weekend. Here’s how I see it:

1. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $67.5 million

2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. The Bob’s Burgers Movie

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

4. Downton Abbey: A New Era

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

5. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (May 27-30)

As mentioned, Tom Cruise soared to the largest debut of his career with room to spare. Top Gun: Maverick amassed $126.7 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $160.5 million for the four-day. That eclipses my respective takes of $113.4 million and $138 million. Cruise’s previous all-time starter was 2005’s War of the Worlds with $65 million. Maverick also moved past the 15-year-old Memorial frame record that belonged to Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End with its $139 million Friday to Monday haul.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse dropped to second after three weeks on top with $20.3 million, on pace with my $22.1 million forecast. The total is $374 million.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie certainly didn’t earn Simpsons type of coin ($74 million). However, it did manage to surpass my expectations. The animated pic made $12.4 million for the three-day and $14.8 million over the long portion. The third place showing ran ahead of my projections of $9.2 million and $11.6 million.

Downton Abbey: A New Era proved rather front loaded with a fourth place sophomore gross of $7.4 million compared to my $9.5 million estimate. The two-week gross is $29 million.

The Bad Guys rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $6.2 million) for $82 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Close

In 2o18, Belgian director probably came close to seeing his feature Girl nab an International Feature Film nod. It came up short, but he’s got another shot this year with Close.

The coming-of-age drama re-teams him with Girl screenwriter Angelo Tijssens. While it didn’t win the top prize Palme D’Or at the French film festival, it did tie with Stars at Noon for the Grand Prix (essentially second place).

With a 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating, I would expect Belgium could make this their selection for the Academy’s derby. If it makes the shortlist, it certainly stands a decent chance at inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Triangle of Sadness

Five years after his satire The Square won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, Swedish filmmaker Ruben Ostlund has won the top prize for another satire. That picture is Triangle of Sadness which stars Harris Dickinson and Charibi Dean as models stranded on an island with a group of billionaires, including Woody Harrelson.

Sadness was a bit of a surprise honoree over pics that received stronger reviews such as Broker and Decision to Leave. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 71% with some raves and others calling it a disappointment.

Perhaps the buzz garnered by the Cannes victory could propel it to a Best Picture nod. However, that’s far from a guarantee. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…