Year: 2022

Oscar Predictions: EO

The nation of Poland has been well represented in the International Feature Film competition at the Oscars over the past decade. 2014’s Ida won while 2018’s Cold War and 2019’s Corpus Christi made the final quintet. The Poles have already announced their selection for 2022 is EO from 84-year-old filmmaker Jerzy Skolimowski. Sandra Drzymalska, Lorenzo Zurzolo, Mateusz Kościukiewicz, and Isabelle Huppert star.

Often told from the perspective of a circus donkey (your eyes aren’t deceiving you), this garnered plenty of praise and head scratching when it played the Cannes Film Festival over the summer. It also tied for the Jury Prize in France. EO plays the Toronto Film Festival in a matter of days.

Said to be quite the surrealistic experience, the Rotten Tomatoes is at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. The International branch is tough to predict. If they didn’t go for last year’s Lamb, I’m not overly confident they go for this. Based on the history of its country recently though – could it contend with the right marketing campaign? You bet your ass. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Whale

The Venice Film Festival is where filmmaker Darren Aronofsky debuted 2008’s The Wrestler, which was a career resurgent role for Mickey Rourke that resulted in a Best Actor nomination (he was probably runner-up after Sean Penn as Milk). In 2010, his follow-up Black Swan‘s premiere in Lido began Natalie Portman’s eventual trip to the Academy’s stage in Best Actress.

Prognosticators have been expecting the same from Aronofsky with The Whale as it seeks to bring Brendan Fraser into the Oscar fold. Based on Samuel D. Hunter’s 2012 play, the pic takes place in one apartment with Fraser as 600 pound teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter (Sadie Sink of Stranger Things). Costars include Hong Chau, Ty Simpkins, and Samantha Morton.

Reviews are just starting to surface and they are of the mixed variety. Some are claiming it’s an effective tearjerker while others say it misses the mark. However, Fraser’s work is being lauded to the extent that his first Best Actor nomination seems assured. Any other nods are iffy (with the likely exception of Makeup and Hairstyling due to the prosthetics work involved). In Supporting Actress, Chau is being singled out more than Sink and she appears to have a fair shot. As for Picture and Adapted Screenplay, let’s see how the coming days (it will hit Toronto as well) play out with the buzz. With the critical reaction varying widely, Fraser can at least plan his trip to the red carpet. Other races are up in the air. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Plan 75

Japan surprised awards prognosticators this week with the announcement that Plan 75 will be their competitor for International Feature Film at the Oscars. This has nothing to do with the quality of Che Hayakawa’s dystopian drama where the aging population is given the option to be euthanized. Plan garnered strong reviews out of Cannes and it will receive plenty of North American eyeballs next week in Toronto.

The unexpected development is that Japan could have submitted Hirokazu Kore-Eda’s heralded Broker (also making the rounds on the fest circuit) and it chose otherwise. The general consensus is that Broker, after South Korea understandably went with Decision to Leave over it, would have been close to a shoo-in nominee for the Academy’s international competition.

75‘s chances are a little murkier though solid notices out of Toronto could help. This comes a year after Japan’s Drive My Car was victorious in the foreign film race so we will see if their campaign skills are still sharp in 2022. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: One Fine Morning

Mia Hansen-Love’s romance/drama One Fine Morning debuted at Cannes in May and is now doing a fall festival run that includes Toronto. The French pic is the latest acclaimed feature from a director who has had several (most recently last year’s Bergman Island). Lea Seydoux leads a cast that includes Melvil Poupaud, Pascal Greggory, and Nicole Garcia.

With Sony Picture Classics handling distribution, the French may have a dilemma on their hands. Morning has an impressive 96% Rotten Tomatoes rating and could be a solid choice for the country’s International Feature Film submission. However, they also have Romain Gavris’s buzzy action drama Athena. While its RT score is lower at 67%, the positive reviews are very positive and it will certainly have its champions for IFF inclusion.

Hansen-Love, despite plenty of heralded pics, has yet to receive any attention from the Academy. That’s part of the reason why I wouldn’t be surprised if France ultimately selects Athena as its hopeful for awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Empire of Light

Empire of Light is the ninth feature film from Sam Mendes. Six of his previous eight titles received at least one Oscar nod. His debut, 1999’s American Beauty, won Best Picture and Director. His last, war epic 1917, garnered ten nominations and was victorious with three of them. The Mendes streak of awards success should continue with Empire of Light, which has premiered at Telluride prior to its December 9th stateside release.

Called the filmmaker’s most personal effort, Empire is a late 70s/early 80s set celebration of cinema with a May/December romance between leads Olivia Colman and Micheal Ward. Costars include Tom Brooke, Toby Jones, and Colin Firth.

We are early in the review process and some of the write-ups are rather mixed. Yet the superlatives going to Colman has me thinking she’s going to receive her fourth Academy mention in five years. She won for Best Actress in 2018 The Favourite and then nabbed a Supporting Actress nod in 2020 for The Father. A lead actress slot followed last year for The Lost Daughter. The other races where this looks strong are Cinematography from the legendary Roger Deakins and the Trent Reznior/Atticus Ross score. Production Design is also doable.

Ward’s work is also being praised. However, I’m not near as confident he makes the Actor cut. Firth’s role, by the way, sounds too small for a supporting bid. The latter’s performance and its viability could be determined by Empire‘s strength in BP (as well as the original screenplay). Voters do love movies about their industry and that could help. I don’t believe this has established a guaranteed spot among the ten. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Wonder

Florence Pugh’s turn in the forthcoming Don’t Worry Darling (which is readying its Venice debut) might be her highest profile autumn project. Yet the actress (a Supporting Actress nominee for Little Women in 2019) is generating kudos for The Wonder, which has premiered at Telluride. A November theatrical release is planned prior to a December Netflix bow.

Sebastian Lelio directs the drama set in 1860s Ireland. He’s known for critically appreciated efforts like Disobedience and Gloria Bell and five years ago, his Chilean pic A Fantastic Woman won the international feature prize from the Academy. Pugh stars as a nurse tasked with monitoring a young girl said to have survived without food for months. Tom Burke, Niamh Algar, Toby Jones, and Ciaran Hinds costar. The screenplay comes from Emma Donoghue and it’s based on her own novel. She is best known for the book and script for Room, which won Brie Larson a Best Actress Oscar.

The smattering of reviews out are mostly positive though they don’t have me thinking The Wonder is a Best Picture contender. I could see Netflix pushing Pugh in lead actress. And with that… get used to this refrain. I believe 60% of the Actress field might be set already. That would be Michelle Yeah in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Cate Blanchett for Tar, and Olivia Colman for Empire of Light (my post for that is about to be published so consider this a spoiler alert). Pugh and anyone else could be competing for two slots and there’s plenty of performances left unseen.

Bottom line: I wouldn’t count Pugh out based on initial reaction for The Wonder but competition is already severe. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Women Talking

After its debut at Telluride, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking has awards pundits talking about its solid reception. Based on a 2018 novel by Miriam Toews, it focuses on a group of Mennonite women who are subject to sexual abuse. The powerhouse cast includes Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, and Frances McDormand.

Based on a small number of reviews, critics are positive across the board with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%. There wasn’t much doubt that Women could be a contender at the Oscars. A better question was which performers would stand out. First things first. McDormand (who serves as a producer) apparently has a small role so she will not vie for a fourth acting statue. If any of the cast goes lead, it sounds like Mara would be the choice and her inclusion in Best Actress could come down to competition. A likelier scenario is Buckley or Foy (or both) in Supporting Actress and Whishaw in Supporting Actor. That would mark the second nomination for Buckley after last year’s The Lost Daughter and the first for Foy (who was surprisingly snubbed in 2018 for First Man). This would also be Whishaw’s first trip to the dance. Early chatter has praised Judith Ivey and Sheila McCarthy as well, but I wouldn’t be surprised if United Artists focuses on the higher profile thespians.

I’ve had Women Talking in my ten BP hopefuls for weeks and Telluride confirms its placement there. Polley could make the final five for her direction and her inclusion for Adapted Screenplay seems assured. Hildur Guðnadóttir’s score (she’s a past winner for Joker) and Cinematography are tech possibilities.

Bottom line: Women. Talking is showing itself to be worthy of chatter in the months to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Athena

2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two International Feature Film nominees in the past decade from France. Romain Gavras’s Athena hopes to be the next. It will need to overcome mixed reviews and competition from other native pictures. The action drama streams stateside on September 23rd via Netflix and premiered at the Venice Film Festival today. Dani Benssalah, Sami Slimane, Anthony Bajon, and Ouassini Embarek star.

Focused on themes including police brutality, it’s worth pointing out that the positive reviews for Athena are quite positive and it should have its champions for Academy inclusion. Yet the Rotten Tomatoes score is a little troubling at the moment with 63%. France will, of course, need to select it as the hopeful for its international prize. Internal competition could come in the form of Mia Hansen-Love’s acclaimed One Fine Morning or Saint Omer from Alice Diop.

Bottom line: I suspect that RT number may rise, but there’s no guarantee the French will roll with Athena yet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nanny

Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.

After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.

Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bones and All

Love and cannibalism collide in Luca Guadagnino’s Bones and All, which has premiered at Venice before its November 23rd stateside theatrical release. The mix of gore and romance reunites the filmmaker with his Call Me by Your Name star Timothee Chalamet (I will refrain from making any Armie Hammer references from now on). Taylor Russell, who drew raves for the little seen Waves, is co-lead with a supporting cast including Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, and Jessica Harper.

The road movie, based on a 2015 YA novel from Camille DeAngelis, is drawing mostly positive early reaction in Italy. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a strong 92%. Praise is plentiful for Chalamet (he scored an Oscar nod for Name), but Russell is being called the highlight.

Despite the encouraging buzz, I’m not sure voters will bite for this late 80s set horror tale. Five years ago, Guadagnino’s Name called up four Academy nods including Picture and winning Adapted Screenplay. His 2018 follow-up Suspiria didn’t make a dent with the awards crowd.

MGM/UA would need to mount a major campaign for Russell or Chalamet for them to be viable in my view. I would say Bones‘s best shot could be Adapted Screenplay or perhaps the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…