Month: October 2022

Oscar Predictions: She Said

At the New York Film Festival this evening, the curtain went up on She Said. From director Maria Schrader, the film recounts The New York Times investigation in movie mogul Harvey Weinstein. Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan portray the two lead reporters with a supporting cast including Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Samantha Morton, Tom Pelphrey, and Jennifer Ehle.

Recent journalistic exposes such as 2015’s Spotlight went all the way to a Best Picture victory. On the other hand, 2019’s Bombshell managed acting nods but missed BP and screenplay. Based on the early reviews coming out of the Big Apple, She Said may land somewhere in the middle. The initial reactions indicate this could absolutely make the ten contenders in Picture. Winning appears highly unlikely (several write-ups are in the solid but not great realm). As for its script, Adapted Screenplay is pretty weak in 2022. There’s no reason to think this won’t get in. I’d continue to put it behind Women Talking and The Whale. 

One of this season’s mysteries has been speculating on which performers here might rise to contention. Much of this could come down to Universal’s category placement decisions. It would seem that Mulligan and Kazan are both leads and that should mean Best Actress campaigns for both. Yet that lead derby (as has been discussed many times on this blog) is packed. That doesn’t hold true for Supporting Actress which appears far more open to possibilities. Both are generating good ink with Mulligan said to perhaps have a more clip friendly role. If the call is made for both to go supporting, one or either could get in. I wouldn’t say the same in Actress. Both Morton and Ehle are scoring kudos for their brief roles, but they could be too brief for consideration.

Bottom line: Picture and Adapted Screenplay are in the mix for She Said. We have to hear the studio’s plans for the cast before that becomes clearer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ticket to Paradise Box Office Prediction

There’s a good chance that Ticket to Paradise would’ve been the top grossing romantic comedy of about anywhere from 1998-2004. Its success in the fall of 2022 is less assured but achievable (though not in the range of its potential earnings years ago). George Clooney and Julia Roberts are a divorced couple on a mission to prevent their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever) from tying the knot. Ol Parker, director of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, is behind the camera. Costars include Billie Lourd, Maxime Bouttier, and Lucas Bravo.

In a somewhat rare release pattern, Ticket was made available to various other international markets in September. The results have been pleasing with $60 million around the globe. Reviews are mixed/positive with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Rom coms have been challenged at multiplexes lately and a little hard to come by. Many have gone the streaming route instead. Pics like The Lost City have featured an action dynamic that Paradise doesn’t have.

It does have two high wattage leads and a return to Julia’s most beloved genre after two decades. She’s been a stalwart of this material with gigantic blockbusters such as Pretty Woman, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Notting Hill, and Runaway Bride. Having her Ocean’s Eleven ex-hubby along for the ride only helps.

The chance of this over performing its projection of low to highish teens is doable. Yet I suspect this won’t be a runaway huge premiere and instead do respectable business.

Ticket to Paradise opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million

For my Black Adam prediction, click here:

Black Adam Box Office Prediction

Black Adam Box Office Prediction

Dwayne Johnson looks to bring his often rock solid box office bonafides to the DC Extended Universe with Black Adam on October 21st. The 11th feature in the franchise that began with Man of Steel nearly a decade ago is a spinoff of 2019’s Shazam! Like that pic, it is centered on a less widely known hero in the DC arsenal. Jaume Collet-Serra (who worked with Johnson recently in Jungle Cruise) directs. The supporting cast includes Aldis Hodge, Noah Centineo, Sarah Shahi, Marwan Kenzari, Quintessa Swindell, Viola Davis, and Pierce Brosnan.

It’s somewhat surprising that we’ve waited this long to see the live-action comic book genre and this leading man hook up. While this should perform well, Adam is unlikely to approach the opening grosses of the DCEU’s earlier titles like Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman, and Justice League. They all made over $100 million (or close to it) out of the gate. Yet this should top the $53 million earned by Shazam! The best comp I see is Aquaman, which made $67 million during its traditional Friday to Sunday rollout. I’ll say it makes a little less.

Black Adam opening weekend prediction: $64.7 million

For my Ticket to Paradise prediction, click here:

Ticket to Paradise Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Matilda the Musical

Based on the 1988 Roald Dahl book as well as the musical stage show that followed years later, the cinematic rendering of Matilda the Musical streams on Netflix December 9th. That’s about two weeks after the UK rollout. It already made its festival debut in London to harmonious praise and a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Matthew Warchus is behind the camera, adapting from his own onstage direction in England and on Broadway (where Olivier and Tony Awards abounded). This is the second reworking of the Dahl book behind 1996’s version helmed by Danny DeVito. Alisha Weir plays the title character with a supporting cast including Lashana Lynch, Emma Thompson, Andrea Riseborough, and Stephen Graham.

Despite the praise, it’s a stretch to consider this an Academy contender. That is with the possible exception of Best Original Song where there are reported to be tunes separate from the stage version that could be eligible for consideration.

I wouldn’t sleep on Matilda‘s chances at the Golden Globes. The Musical/Comedy category could have room for a couple of surprises and this would fit the bill. Of the actors, Thompson is getting lots of love. However, I suspect Globes voters may honor her in lead Actress in Musical/Comedy for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (which premiered earlier this year). My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

October 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Horror should rule the box office with Halloween Ends debuting and Smile continuing its impressive run. Jamie Lee Curtis’s alleged final battle with Michael Myers is the only new release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Halloween Ends Box Office Prediction

Predecessor Halloween Kills from last year made considerably less out of the gate than its predecessor from 2018. Even with a simultaneous release on Peacock (same as Kills), I will give Ends a start in the mid to high 40s. That’s on pace with Kills. 

Smile should easily hold the #2 spot after a very sturdy hold in its sophomore outing (more on that below). Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (after a unimpressive opening) may experience a high 30s second weekend fall while The Woman King and bomb Amsterdam round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it:

1. Halloween Ends

Predicted Gross: $47.6 million

2. Smile

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

4. The Woman King

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Amsterdam

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (October 7-9)

I expected Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile to take a bigger bite out of the charts and open in first place. That didn’t occur as the family friendly musical took in $11.4 million for second place. This is well below my prediction of $17.6 million.

That’s because Smile had a remarkable hold (especially for its genre) at $18.4 million. I was lower at $13.3 million. The low budget Paramount scare fest has amassed $50 million in ten days and looks like a solid contender to make nine digits domestically.

Despite the star power of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and many more, David O. Russell’s critically lambasted Amsterdam was a dud with $6.4 million, under my $8.4 million take. Look for this see a drop in the mid 50s (at least) and sink fast.

The Woman King was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $4.7 million) and it’s reached $54 million total.

Don’t Worry Darling rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I was right there with $3.4 million) for $38 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: My Father’s Dragon

It could be time to admit that I’ve slept on My Father’s Dragon when it comes to Oscar consideration. Based on the 1948 children’s book by Ruth Stiles Gannett, the 2-D fantasy makes its way to Netflix on November 11th. It had its unveiling at the London Film Festival. Dragon is the fifth animated feature from Cartoon Saloon and their track record is, shall we say, fire.

The Irish outlet is 4 for 4 when it comes to getting their pics nominated for Best Animated Feature: 2010’s The Secret of Kells, 2014’s Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner from 2017, and 2020’s Wolfwalkers. Despite their success rate getting their product in the final quintet, they’ve yet to win.

Dragon is directed by Nora Twomey, who co-directed Kells and solo helmed The Breadwinner. The sprawling voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Gaten Matarazzo, Golshifteh Farahani, Jackie Earle Haley, Whoopi Goldberg, Dianne Wiest, Rita Moreno, Chris O’Dowd, Judy Greer, Alan Cumming, Yara Shahidi, Mary Kay Place, Leighton Meester, and Ian McShane.

Reviews are just beginning to trickle out of London and so far so good. The initial buzz indicates this should be a contender. Like its earlier efforts, I’d say it’s a viable film for nomination and not a victory. My last estimates had it ranked seventh… pretty low for a production company with the aforementioned history.

Yet there could be roadblocks on the Saloon’s road to five in a row. The main one is internal competition from Netflix itself. Most prognosticators (myself included) have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from the streamer listed in first place. Even though that’s sight unseen, the pedigree would suggest it’ll be Netflix’s biggest push for the gold statue. Others that the company could be focused on include this summer’s acclaimed The Sea Beast and Wendell and Wild from Jordan Peele, which debuts later this month and nabbed positive feedback at the Toronto Film Festival.

That’s four legit contenders from Netflix and Disney (for one) will have something to say about them achieving four nominations (they won’t). Something’s gotta give and we’ll see how the next few weeks play out to determine which movies from the quartet don’t make the dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Luckiest Girl Alive Review

Luckiest Girl Alive tackles weighty subjects and reinforces its messages by eventually having Mila Kunis’s Ani look directly to camera to state them in case you weren’t listening. Based on a 2015 bestseller by Jessica Knoll, Mike Barker’s adaptation juggles two 1999 tragedies – the first is kept under wraps for some time. It leads to a school shooting in which Kunis’s younger self is suspected of participating. In the present day, one of the wounded parties confined to a wheelchair (Alex Barone) is monetizing such a narrative.

Ani is a talented writer penning witty relationship columns for a slightly trashy magazine. The work is noticed enough that she’s up for a gig at The New York Times. She’s engaged to Luke (Finn Wittrock), sweet and supportive and coming from money. We learn that status is important to Ani. Flashbacks (where Ani is played by Chiara Aurelia) show us a teenager attending a fancy private school. Unlike her peers, she’s not rich and her mom (Connie Britton) is constantly offering flawed advice on how to climb the societal ladder.

In addition to the story often shifting between the turn of the century and 2015, Kunis provides frequent voiceovers. Her biting inner monologue usually doesn’t match what she says out loud (expect in one humorous instance). Ani has learned to keep prior tragedies buried away. All of that is risked when a documentary filmmaker (Dalmar Abuzeid) finally convinces her to take part in his project. Its focus is to get to the bottom of everything that occurred when violence erupted in the halls. The acts of violation aren’t just unique to the shooters.

As mentioned, the screenplay (and book I assume) are told so that some crimes are slow rolled into big reveals. Perhaps it worked in novelistic form. It comes across as clunky in the adaptation and even a little cheap considering the seriousness of its themes. Characters are arbitrarily introduced like Ani’s kindly teacher (Scoot McNairy). He tends to pop up as the plot necessitates it.

Our lead strays far away from recent comedic roles and does a commendable job. Other players – like Britton as the boozy and conflicted mom – are saddled with one-note roles (that applies to Wittrock too). I wish the structure served its top actress and the others more smoothly. This meditation on trauma can feel too often like a rough draft.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Klondike

Ukraine has submitted 14 pictures for consideration in the International Feature Film competition at the Oscars since 1997. None have ended up making the final five in the race. Maryna Er Gorbach’s Klondike hopes to change that dynamic.

The war drama is set in 2014 and centers on the nation’s conflict with Russia. Obviously that subject matter is more prevalent than ever. Today’s headlines could contribute to Klondike being a high profile selection to join the quintet of IFF nominees.

It’s important to note that its inclusion wouldn’t just be a nod to current events. Gorbach’s fourth overall feature debuted at Sundance where she won the prize in the World Cinema Dramatic Competition. At the Berlin Film Festival, it came in second for the audience award. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 95%. I’ve had Klondike ranked 8th for the past couple of weeks in my possibilities, but it could rise if voters turn their focus to it a couple of months from now. Perhaps the 15th time will be the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Invitation Review

Jessica M. Thompson’s The Invitation sure isn’t pro DNA test considering what our heroine goes through after she takes one. The DNA of the film can be found in countless bloodsucker tales. It fails its own test of living up to most of them.

NYC resident Evie (Nathalie Emmanuel) is just a poor girl with a potter’s wheel, deceased parents, and past due notices in the mail. Her catering job presents an opportunity when she works a soiree for a company called Find Yourself and the swag bag affords her a free sampling of the product. The ancestry revelation service takes her across the pond to England where she has wealthy relatives. It turns out her great grandmother had an affair with a black worker at her posh estate and Evie stems from that bloodline.

Going from zero family to this brood is at first thrilling and her cousin Oliver (Hugh Skinner) seems nice enough. The possibilities elevate when she’s invited to a mysterious wedding at the grounds of the dreamy Walt de Ville (Thomas Doherty). A budding romance ensues.

The gothic horror overtones indicate there’s twists ahead… and also maids keep getting attacked in shadowy corners of the cruel de Ville manor. Part of the problem is it takes an hour for these “secrets” to come out. One view of the trailer basically tells us everything and that is 100 minutes less time wasted.

The Invitation‘s PG-13 scares are practically non-existent. Blair Butler’s screenplay haphazardly tries to inject commentary about sexism, racism, and classism. The occasional saving graces are Emmanuel and Doherty. They have another “ism”  – charisma but their chemistry veers off track when Evie’s real reason for the trip is told. The script’s most significant issue is that we never believe for a second that the plan hatched by these aristocrats could’ve worked. I suppose saying more would be spoiler heavy as long as you avoided a commercial for this. The two leads keep it from completely sucking but you can safely keep away.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Alcarras

Alcarras is the sophomore directorial from Carla Simon and the Spanish family drama topped The Beasts and Lullaby to become the nation’s submission for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It debuted earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival where it won the Golden Bear (the fest’s highest honor). Simon’s 2017 debut Summer of 1993 was also Spain’s selection for the Academy to consider, but it didn’t end up making the final five.

Could Alcarras? With an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and the hardware from Germany, it’s possible. Yet it faces hurdles. While the bulk of reviews are recommendations, some of them aren’t raves. Pics such as All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, and Close are likely nominees for IFF so there’s not many slots to go around.

Spain has seen two movies in the 21st century contend for the foreign derby: 2004’s The Sea Inside (which won) and 2019’s Pain and Glory. It’s feasible that Alcarras could be the third though I have it on the outside looking in currently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…