Month: September 2022

The Swimmers Review

The emotional power of Sally El Hosaini’s The Swimmers is present, but it comes in waves interrupted by sprinkles of forced sentimentality and padded length. This true story of two sisters escaping war torn Syria is gripping enough that a Rocky style training montage and pop music interludes feels a little extra. For much of its length, this is a potent and often frightening tale of the refugee experience through their eyes and their fellow travelers from numerous nations.

Yusra (Nathalie Issa) and Sara (Manal Issa) Mardini are being trained by their father/coach (Ali Suliman) to excel in the title sport. The goal is clear – make the Olympics and do their country proud. Real world events interfere when, by 2015, President Assad is waging war on his own citizens. For any hope of success or just surviving, the sibs join their cousin (Ahmed Malek) on a trek to Germany while leaving their parents and little sister behind. The long road to pined for full family reunification find its path through several countries and the Aegean Sea.

That dangerous Sea crossing is the climactic centerpiece and it comes around the middle mark of 134 minutes. El Hosaini and her team are technically proficient. The sound and cinematography deserve special mention. It’s an expertly constructed sequence and there’s other haunting bits of the Mardini’s path to freedom.

The running time is too long. By the time the Yusra and Sara find a German instructor (Matthias Schweighofer) to assist in making the 2016 Rio games a reality (through the Refugee Olympic Team or ROT), The Swimmers becomes watered down. It simply can’t keep up with what preceded it.

You may note the actresses playing the Mardini’s have the same last name and that’s because the Issa’s are also sisters. This shows in their effortless chemistry. Yusra is focused on the gold medal goal while Sara is more of a wild card. However, she doesn’t hesitate to move into older sibling protective mode when called upon. Before they reach Rio, that’s when The Swimmers hits mostly right notes. To borrow a phrase from Duran Duran (even though it’s Sia who gets the soundtrack love), that’s when El Hosaini and her team really shine and show you all they can.

*** (out four)

Oscar Predictions: Blonde

While she received two Golden Globe nominations in her short-lived career, the Oscars never recognized Marilyn Monroe. Could the Academy honor the performance of Ana de Armas in the biopic Blonde as the icon? Arriving in limited release on September 16th before its September 28th Netlix stream, Andrew Dominik’s pic comes with a rare NC-17 rating and a near three hour runtime. Adrien Brody, Bobby Cannavale, Xavier Samuel, and Julianne Nicholson costar in the adaptation of Joyce Carol Oates’s 2000 novel.

This is Dominik’s first feature since 2012’s Killing Them Softly (his 2007 Western The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is considered by many to be a modern day classic). It premiered at Venice and early buzz is that this is a dark and rather sleazy and often enthralling exploration of the price of fame. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 84%.

I’m dubious that the Academy will embrace this as a BP contender. The real question is whether de Armas can make the cut. Based on initial reaction, she certainly can but it’s no guarantee… unlike, say, Cate Blanchett (Tar) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Her potential inclusion is probably contingent on how competition for slots plays out in the next four months. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Pinocchio

There could be a Pinocchio movie that contends for Oscars in 2022, but it’s not the one this post is focused on. Today marks the Disney Plus premiere of Pinocchio, the studio’s latest live-action remake of their iconic IP. The musical fantasy has some high profile talent with Robert Zemeckis directing and Tom Hanks, Cynthia Erivo, and Luke Evans appearing. Voice work is contributed by Benjamin Evan Ainsworth (as the title character), Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Keegan-Michael Key.

Some reviews claim it’s an OK watch, but plenty others have been quiet derisive. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 32%. Even without critical acclaim, the Mouse Factory’s live-action retelling of The Lion King managed a Visual Effects nod three years back. Don’t look for that to occur here as some of the buzz is quite dismissive of its overall look.

In November, Guillermo del Toro’s stop-motion animated version of the puppet turned real boy arrives on Netflix. We’ll see if it garners Academy chatter. This won’t. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Woman King Box Office Prediction

Viola Davis headlines the 19th century set African action epic The Woman King on September 16th. It comes from director Gina Prince-Bythewood, who recently helmed the Charlize Theron Netflix flick The Old Guard. Based on a story co-written by actress Maria Bello, the supporting cast includes Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.

With a reported midsize budget of roughly $50 million, King premieres at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. That’s where buzz will begin to circulate and that could help or hinder its domestic box office prospects. With the barren landscape of new material out there, this should easily premiere in first place. However, I’m skeptical this reaches the higher end of its range ($20 million). A lower teens start seems more feasible unless the chatter picks up considerably.

The Woman King opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my See How They Run prediction, click here:

See How They Run Box Office Prediction

For my Pearl prediction, click here:

Pearl Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: See How They Run

With plenty of critics citing inspiration from Agatha Christie, the humorous murder mystery See How They Run arrives in UK theaters Friday and in the US on September 16th. Marking the directorial debut of Tom George, four-time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan and one-time winner Sam Rockwell lead a cast that includes Adrien Brody, Ruth Wilson, Harris Dickinson, and David Oyelowo.

Run forewent the fall festival circuit which surprised me a bit. Some reviews are appreciative of its charms while others aren’t nearly as impressed. The 76% Rotten Tomatoes indicates that most write-ups don’t have their knives out for it.

Speaking of, we’ll know whether Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is an awards player when it premieres in Toronto this weekend. I don’t believe this genre predecessor will be. Perhaps something like Production Design or Costume Design but that’s likely the extent of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Despite some encouraging early word-of-mouth, horror flick Barbarian could be fairly quiet out of the gate as the only wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:

Barbarian Box Office Prediction

My estimate easily puts it in the top spot, but that’s cold comfort considering I’m projecting a second weekend in a row with no title topping $10 million.

On the more limited front is the Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva. I didn’t do an individual post for it, but the reported 750 venues should limit its potential. With a caveat that this may over perform, I’ll say it manages a fourth place start (though it could just as easily be 2nd or 3rd).

Holdovers Top Gun: Maverick, Bullet Train, and DC League of Super-Pets should fill out the remainder of the high five. Here’s how I see it:

1. Barbarian

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

2. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

3. Bullet Train

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

4. Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

5. DC League of Super-Pets

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (September 2-5)

On its 102nd day of release, Top Gun: Maverick returned to the top spot over a desolate Labor Day weekend with $7.9 million (surpassing my $6.2 million prediction). Tom Cruise’s sequel surpassed Black Panther to become the 5th largest domestic grosser of all time. The total is $701 million. Fifth place is likely where it will stay as #4 is Avatar ($760 million) and it’s got a re-release coming in two weeks before the December sequel.

Bullet Train was second with $7.5 million, ahead of my $6 million projection as it has pulled in $88 million over five weeks. Now might be a good time to mention that National Cinema Day, which priced films for $3 at major chains, probably helped push the numbers up a bit over the holiday.

DC League of Super-Pets was third with $6.7 million (I underplayed it at $4.3 million). The National Cinema Day bump got it to $82 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition added 11 minutes of extra footage and $6.5 million to its considerable coffers. That’s in range with my $7 million guesstimate. Spidey has swung $811 million in the bank.

The Invitation rounded out the top five at $6.1 million (besting my $4.6 million take) for a two-week total of $15 million.

Beast was sixth with $5 million compared to my call of $4.1 million for $26 million overall.

Minions: The Rise of Gru was seventh with $4.5 million and I did not project it. The franchise blockbuster sits at $360 million.

The Jaws re-release was 8th with $3.3 million, on target with my prediction of $3.1 million.

Finally, the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. found no love with $1.7 million for 14th place. I said $2.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Son

Two awards seasons ago, Florian Zeller’s The Father premiered at Sundance all the way back at a time known as January 2020. For over a year (and with the Oscars delayed due to COVID), the performance of Anthony Hopkins stayed in the minds of voters and he scored an upset Best Actor victory over the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). The pic nabbed five other nominations including a win for its Adapted Screenplay.

Zeller’s follow-up is The Son and prognosticators including me anointed Hugh Jackman as the Best Actor frontrunner sight unseen. That dynamic has changed as it’s screened at Venice before moving to Toronto (the actual release is November 11th). The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins.

Unlike The Father where reviews were basically all laudatory, the Italian buzz for The Son is wildly mixed. Some are calling it an emotional gut punch and highly effective. Others are claiming it’s a big failure. If there seems to be agreement on one item, it’s the potency of Jackman. He still seems likely to make the Actor cut for his second nod after 2012’s Les Miserables. Yet I’m feeling more confident that I made the right call by placing Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in 1st place on Monday’s update and sliding Jackman to second.

Beyond its star, any other nominations for The Son appears questionable at press time. Perhaps Toronto reaction will help flesh it out – for better or worse. From the initial reaction, I’d say Kirby and McGrath could be possible in the supporting fields. Hopkins is said to have a smaller role and Dern’s character reportedly has less to work with than Kirby. It could find its way into Adapted Screenplay, but a win seems like a reach already.

Bottom line: Jackman should be safe though nothing else is with this one. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dead for a Dollar

Half a century ago, Walter Hill wrote the screenplay that turned into the Steve McQueen/Ali MacGraw vehicle The Getaway. 40 years back, he was directing Eddie Murphy in his cinematic debut alongside Nick Nolte in 48 Hrs. Now at age 80, the filmmaker is still active behind the camera.

His Western Dead for a Dollar has played in Venice prior to its September 30th stateside release. Two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, Willem Dafoe, and Rachel Brosnahan headline the cast of the late 19th century set pic. Reviews are decent at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though not strong enough to indicate this will come out and play in any awards category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: L’Immensita

If there’s an actress out there who I would say has almost quietly received four Oscar nominations, it’s Penelope Cruz. She won Supporting Actress in 2008 for Vicky Christina Barcelona, but was nominated the following year in that race for Nine. That’s in addition to two lead nods for 2006’s Volver and last year’s Parallel Mothers. 

At the Venice Film Festival, the quadruple contender stars in L’Immensita. The Italian family drama finds Cruz playing the mother of a boy (Luana Giuliani) grappling with gender identity. With her character experiencing mental health issues, this is said to be a juicy role for Emanuele Crialese’s effort.

There’s not many reviews out yet, but the handful of them available has its Rotten Tomatoes score at 100%. It will be interesting to see if Italy selects this as their International Feature Film designee. The Eight Mountains (which premiered at Cannes over the summer) is another possibility. The nation has had two films in the IFF derby over the past decade: 2013’s The Great Beauty (which won) and last year’s The Hand of God. If L’Immensita is the pick, the early word-of-mouth suggests it could make the eventual shortlist. Could Cruz be in the mix for a fifth nod? That’s doubtful though she was able to pull off that Parallel Mothers mention in a crowded 2021 Best Actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Eight years ago, documentarian Laura Poitras won the Oscar for her Edward Snowden centered Citizenfour. Her 2016 follow-up Risk (about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange) was not the commercial success or awards player that the predecessor was. She looks to be back at the awards scene with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which premiered in Venice and is on route to Toronto.

Her latest focuses on Nan Golden, an activist who takes on the opioid epidemic and those accountable for spreading it. If you’ve seen the acclaimed miniseries Dopesick with Michael Keaton, this could be an interesting companion piece.

One of the higher profile docs playing the fall fest circuit, Neon has already acquired the distribution rights. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%, all the logic dictates this should be a contender for Best Documentary Feature. That particular branch of the Academy is unpredictable, but this should be on your radar screen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…