In a six-year stretch from 2010-2015, Jennifer Lawrence nabbed a remarkable four Oscar nominations, including a Best Actress victory for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. She’s been off the radar of awards voters for a bit, but that could change with Causeway. The story of a soldier struggling to return to domestic life, it marks the directorial debut of Broadway director Lila Neugebauer (as well as J-Law’s first producer credit). Costars include Brian Tyree Henry, Linda Emond, Stephen Henderson, and Jayne Houdyshell.
Slated for theatrical release and Apple TV streaming on November 4th, it played Toronto to impressive reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% with praise being heaped on Lawrence and Henry. Apple will have its work cut out for either to be nominated. In Best Actress, I believe four spots may already be spoken for – Cate Blanchett (Tar), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), and the as yet unseen Margot Robbie for Babylon. I do believe Lawrence is in the mix even with the seemingly fierce competition. Same goes for Henry. Their inclusion could rise or fall with how other hopefuls pan out in the coming months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
20th Century Studios is hoping moviegoers are ready for a return trip to Pandora (and its Papyrus font) when it re-releases Avatar into multiplexes on September 23rd. It arrives three months before James Cameron’s long gestating sequel Avatar: The Way of Water. The original 2009 3D tale revolutionized that technology and it broke the director’s own record to become the highest grossing domestic earner of all time. (topping Titanic). That designation stood for six years until Star Wars: The Force Awakens came along.
Journeying to approximately 1800 venues, Avatar will look to add to the $760 million already in its coffers. The best case scenario is that it could top the charts over Don’t Worry Darling or The Woman King. A far likelier outcome, in my view, is a third place showing in the high single digits.
Avatar re-release opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
For my Don’t Worry Darling prediction, click here:
Sally El Hosaini’s The Swimmers got the plum slot of opening the Toronto Film Festival a week ago prior to its November 23rd Netflix streaming bow. An Oscar qualifying theatrical run will precede that. Based on the true story of Syrian refugee sisters hoping for Olympic gold, real life siblings Nathalie and Manal Issa star alongside Ahmed Malek, Matthias Schweighofer, and Ali Suliman.
The Toronto buzz was mixed with a 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. I don’t see this generating a wave of support for awards consideration. Many reviews say this is more successful in its depiction of the refugee experience than as a sports drama. I would second that as I attended the opening night gala in Canada. I don’t envision this contending in any race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Tyler Perry puts away that Madea smock for a love story spanning four decades in A Jazzman’s Blues, which streams on Netflix beginning September 23rd. The writer/director’s latest premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a cast of relative unknowns including Joshua Boone, Amirah Vann, Solea Pfeiffer, and Ryan Eggold.
Early critical reaction is mostly appreciative of Perry’s effort. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 80%. This doesn’t, however, appear to be his bid at awards kudos. The reviews are less raves and more claims that it’s serviceable. Don’t look for this to play with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
These posts about the awards viability of many pictures might be called “Oscar Predictions”. Sometimes it’s more of a Golden Globe predictions centered type of thing. That’s the case with Ticket to Paradise. The rom com has heavy star wattage with George Clooney and Julia Roberts as a divorced couple trying to prevent the pending nuptials of their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever). Ol Parker, who last made Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, directs. Costars include Maxime Bouttier, Billie Lourd, and Lucas Bravo.
Paradise is out in many parts of Europe next week before its October 21st domestic booking. Many reviews are out and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 67%. Academy attention is a non-starter. However, I do wonder if The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will take a look at Clooney or Roberts in the lead races in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. It remains to be seen how competitive those competitions are for 2022.
If the Globes want some big celebs in the mix as they return to the airwaves next year, you could do a lot worse. It’s just as possible that won’t happen, but I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar (or Globe) Prediction posts will continue…
Focused on the 2012 discovery of King Richard III’s remains, dramedy The Lost King premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its October 7th UK release. Domestic distribution is still undetermined. Stephen Frears directs a cast led by Sally Hawkins, Steve Coogan (who cowrote the script with Jeff Pope), and Harry Lloyd.
Critics are mixed on King and it stands at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes. I never really figured this as an Academy contender, but thought the Globes could take notice in the Musical/Comedy races if it garnered enough praise. It’s not out of the question that Hawkins could find her way into the Globes Actress derby if competition is light. It’s also (perhaps more) likely that this is ignored altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Much has been written about the behind the scenes happenings with Olivia Wilde’s Don’t Worry Darling over the past several weeks. Her follow-up to 2019’s Booksmart, it has been a favorite of gossip pages. This involves everything from whether or not Shia LaBeouf was fired or quit before filming began or whether Wilde and Florence Pugh are on speaking terms. There was also SpitGate which focused on whether Harry Styles spat on costar Chris Pine at the Venice Film Festival. Spoiler alert: probably not. Will this ink mean pleasing returns when Darling debuts on September 23rd?
Wilde’s sophomore effort stars Pugh and Styles with costars including Wilde, Gemma Chan, KiKi Layne, Nick Kroll, and Pine. Said to be a Stepford Wives like psychological thriller, early reviews have been rather lackluster. Its Rotten Tomatoes meter is 40%.
Pugh is a rising star and, obviously, Styles has his legions of super fans. Yet that translates to music for the latter and we’ve yet to see if his pop star status can translate to big box office numbers. If you subscribe to the “all publicity is good publicity” theory, Darling could manage to top expectations and gross over $20 million for its start. I’m not so sure. I think the current projections of mid to high teens sounds about right.
Don’t Worry Darling opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million
Exploring the world of the late David Bowie through previously unreleased sounds and visions, Moonage Daydream hits various IMAX theaters this Friday. Directed by Brett Morgen, the domestic release follows screenings at Cannes and Toronto.
Morgen is no stranger to Academy attention though it’s been a bit. His 1999 On the Ropes was nominated as best feature in the documentary race. Various follow-ups have been high profile including The Kid Stays in the Picture (2002), Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck (2015), and Jane (2017). In particular, Jane (focused on primatologist Jane Goodall) was expected to make the Academy’s final cut, but didn’t.
Daydream is receiving plenty of raves with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet musical docs often face a tough road to make the doc quintet and that could apply here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mark Mylod’s The Menu is receiving mostly positive orders after premiering in Toronto before its November 18th domestic release. Will awards voters find it appetizing? The black comedy stars Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, Ralph Fiennes, Hong Chau, Janet McTeer, Judith Light, and John Leguizamo.
The Searchlight Pictures release stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes with plenty of critics praising the screenplay. Perhaps the original script from Seth Reiss and Will Tracy could contend. Fiennes, in particular, is being singled out and a Supporting Actor nod is potentially in the mix.
Yet I suspect the Palme d’or winning Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness, with its similar subject matter, might achieve Academy attention instead of this. There could be room for both, but I’m uncertain. Where The Menu could make a play is at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy Best Picture derby. That’s also where Taylor-Joy may surface in Best Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (09/14): Two changes to discuss as I’ve revised my See How They Run estimate down from $4.8M to $3.2M and my Pearl estimate up from $2.4M to $3.4M. That changes the dynamic of the top five from what I discussed below.
The Viola Davis led historical action epic The Woman King, Saoirse Ronan and Sam Rockwell in the comedic murder mystery See How They Run, and Ti West’s horror prequel Pearl are the new offerings coming our way this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The Woman King should have no trouble debuting in first place as it’s the only pic that should top double digits. Reviews are solid and this could manage a gross close to $20 million, but I’m hedging and projecting a low teens start.
I’m not anticipating much of the other newcomers. Run has been flying under the radar. Assuming Barbarian has a typically hefty horror sophomore dip (more on its opening below), the crime caper should still manage a second place showing thought it could be awfully close.
As for Pearl, its predecessor X made $4.3 million in its March premiere. I’m thinking the prequel won’t match that. However, even if it snatches $2-3 million, that should be enough to make top five.
Here’s how I see this rather ho-hum mid-September frame playing out:
1. The Woman King
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
2. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $5 million
3. Pearl
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. See How They Run
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Critics enjoyed Barbarian more than audiences though the scary movie landed on the higher end of its range. It opened in first with $10.5 million and that’s ahead of my $7.1 million prediction. The C+ Cinemascore grade doesn’t approach that 92% RT score. Note that its opening weekend matches it reported budget. This’ll be a profitable little venture for 20th Century Studios.
The Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva had a second place opening with $4.5 million, managing to top my $3.2 million estimate. I would expect the debut to be front loaded and for it to drop out of the top five this weekend.
Bullet Train was third with $3.3 million (I said $3.4 million) as it inches closer to nine figures with $92 million.
Top Gun: Maverick (after rising back to first place over Labor Day) was fourth with $3.1 million, under my $4.2 million take. The gargantuan gross is $705 million.
The Invitation rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With $2.6 million, it’s up to $18 million after three weeks.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $2.6 million (I went with $3 million) to bring its tally to $85 million.
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