Oscar Predictions: The Adam Project

Hitting Netflix today is Shawn Levy’s The Adam Project, a sci-fi adventure that re-teams the director with his Free Guy lead Ryan Reynolds. Costars include Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Garner, Walker Scobell, Catherine Keener, and Zoe Saldana.

Focused on a 12-year-old who meets his fighter pilot future self, many reviews are kindly comparing this Project to 80s era Spielberg product. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a decent though not overly impressive 70%.

Since it’s available for some theatrical showings, this will be eligible for Oscar consideration. Levy and Reynolds, as mentioned, collaborated just last year for Free Guy and that resulted in a box office hit and a slot in the Visual Effects race (where it will almost certainly lose to Dune in two weeks).

Based on the write-ups, Free Guy appears to be a flashier experience than Adam and I doubt this manages to garner any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kristen Stewart

Kristen Stewart’s role as Princess Diana in Spencer is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Best Actress contenders. The first four can be accessed here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessica Chastain

Oscars 2021: The Case of Olivia Colman

Oscars 2021: The Case of Penelope Cruz

Oscars 2021: The Case of Nicole Kidman

The Case for Kristen Stewart:

Awards attention for the Twilight star has been building for some time. After acclaimed performances in indie fare like Clouds of Sils Maria, Certain Women, and Personal Shopper, this high-profile role has been considered a potential frontrunner performance since it debuted at the Venice Film Festival.

The Case Against Kristen Stewart:

That frontrunner status hit massive speed bumps. While Stewart nabbed Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods, she was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. She lost the Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and SAG went to Jessica Chastain. She’s yet to take a significant precursor (a Critics Choice Award this weekend could help). Furthermore, Spencer drew mixed reaction from critics and audiences and Stewart holds the sole Oscar nod for it.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

It’s a guessing game in Best Actress. Despite Stewart’s setbacks, she’s still in the running in this wide open derby. Her exclusion in SAG could even cause Academy voters to grant her retribution. That said, she’s probably behind Chastain and Kidman at the moment.

My Case Of posts will continue with our last Best Actor player – Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Oscars 2021: The Case of Steven Spielberg

Steven Spielberg’s direction of West Side Story closes out my five Case Of posts for the nominees in the race. If you didn’t catch the previous four, you can get ’em here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kenneth Branagh

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jane Campion

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ryusuke Hamaguchi

The Case for Steven Spielberg:

He’s Steven Spielberg – the most famous and beloved director in the world. Garnering an 8th nomination for his behind the camera work, he could follow in the footsteps of Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins. They won 60 years ago for their direction of the 1961 original.

The Case Against Steven Spielberg:

Spielberg’s two previous victories were for Best Picture frontrunners Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan (which ended up getting upset by Shakespeare in Love). West Side Story is not expected to take the big prize and it was also a high-profile box office disappointment.

Previous Nominations: 7 (for Directing only)

Close Encounters of Third Kind (1977); Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981); E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982); Schindler’s List (1993 – WON); Saving Private Ryan (1998 – WON)Munich (2005); Lincoln (2012)

The Verdict:

When Spielberg took gold for Schindler’s 28 years ago, he beat out Jane Campion for The Piano. She was probably runner-up. It appears that dynamic will be reversed as Campion is the odds on favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final Best Actress hopeful – Kristen Stewart for Spencer

Licorice Pizza Review

I’ve been grooving to the beat of Paul Thomas Anderson’s cinematic vibes for a quarter century. There was the magnificent Boogie Nights in 1997 and the iconic Daniel Day-Lewis milkshake monologue in There Will Be Blood ten years later. A decade after that, my PTA appetite was satiated by Phantom Thread. 

His latest is Licorice Pizza and it’s his most laid back experience. This coming-of-age slice of life takes place in the Valley circa 1973. It feels lived in and authentic and personal. There’s individual scenes where the filmmaker’s brilliance is on full display. Like all of his efforts, there’s memorable performances. And unlike most of his catalogue, this Almost Famous feeling flick has flaws I couldn’t overlook. It’s almost joyous and almost worth the viewing and ultimately more problematic than rewarding.

Loosely based on the teen years of former child actor Gary Goetzman (now a highly successful producing partner of Tom Hanks), Cooper Hoffman is 15-year-old Gary Valentine. He’s costarred in movies and commercials and is far more confident than anyone his age has a right to be. That self-assured nature is evident when he asks 25-year-old photographer’s assistant Alana Kane (Alana Haim) out on a date. She rebuffs his advances at first but ends up meeting him out. The two strike up a friendship and the benefit for us is watching Hoffman and Haim shine in their acting debuts. The son of Anderson’s late frequent collaborator Philip Seymour Hoffman and one third of a well-known rock band, Hoffman and Haim are naturals. The drawback is an age difference I couldn’t overlook… so let’s go there.

This is where the sunny tone of Pizza conflicted with their borderline (perhaps over borderline) inappropriate coupling. It’s not overtly sexual and Alana is well aware that hanging with the decade younger Gary is far from normal. Yet there’s enough of a leftover distasteful feeling that it hindered the entertainment value for me. One could argue Gary is more mature than Alana and perhaps that justifies some of what happens. That’s a tough needle to thread and I just couldn’t get there.

Pizza has a lazy hangout atmosphere that recalls Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Like that picture, it’s steeped in exploring a different showbiz era and the technical aspects we expect from PTA (production design, cinematography, costumes, and more) are top notch.

The episodic nature is hit or miss. Pizza‘s best course involves Bradley Cooper as hairdresser turned producer Jon Peters. His segment moves at a thrilling clip as Gary’s failing waterbed business and the 70s era gasoline shortage play important roles. I can’t say the same for Sean Penn’s bit as an aging movie star (based on William Holden) and his motorcycle exploits. By the time we arrive at Alana trying a new career as a campaign worker for conflicted mayoral candidate Joel Wachs (Benny Safdie), the pic was starting to run on fumes.

When a director of immense capabilities makes an almost misfire, there’s no denying it’s more of a letdown. That’s where I stand with Licorice Pizza and it brings me no joy to deliver that news.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscars 2021: The Case of J.K. Simmons

The performance of J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos is my fourth Case Of post for the Supporting Actor nominees. If you didn’t catch the first three, they are linked here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ciaran Hinds

Oscars 2021: The Case of Troy Kotsur

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jesse Plemons

The Case for J.K. Simmons:

He’s a well-respected Hollywood veteran and the Academy’s voters dug the acting troupe from Ricardos as Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem were also nominated.

The Case Against J.K. Simmons:

This nomination was a bit of a surprise. Simmons got in despite no love from SAG or the Globes (though Critics Choice did mention him). The film itself failed to nab Picture or screenplay nods. Of the three Ricardos hopefuls, only Kidman stands a decent chance at winning.

Previous Nominations: 1

Whiplash (Supporting Actor – 2014, WON)

The Verdict:

Seven years ago, Simmons was the overwhelming favorite to take this race in Whiplash and he did. For Ricardos, I would rank him fifth out of five for the contenders.

My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Spielberg’s direction of West Side Story

Oscar Predictions: Turning Red

Turning Red is the latest Pixar title and it is out Friday on Disney Plus. The coming-of-age tale comes from director Domee She, who won an Oscar in 2018 for her short film Bao (also from Disney/Pixar).

The review embargo is up today and the result so far is 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Red was originally slated for a theatrical release but the pandemic altered that plan. It will follow in the footsteps of Soul, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Luca. What do they all have in common besides their studio? All were nominated or won (in Soul‘s case) for the Animated Feature Oscar.

With bicoastal limited theatrical showings, Red will qualify for next year’s Academy consideration. For 2021, 60% of the animated movies (Raya, Luca, Encanto) are Mouse Factory products.

While it’s certainly early, critical reaction here indicates this could easily make the cut. It’s also worth noting that Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell penned some original tunes that could be Original Song hopefuls. If that pans out, Eilish could be gunning for her second nod in a row as she’s currently up for “No Time to Die”. There’s also Ludwig Goransson who scored Red and he’s a previous Oscar winner for Black Panther. 

The other Pixar product comes this summer with Lightyear. I wouldn’t write Red‘s inclusion in blue ink yet, but don’t be surprised if it’s listed a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 11-13 Box Office Predictions

With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.

I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.

Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

3. Dog

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $1.9 million

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.

Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.

Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.

Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kirsten Dunst

As the alcoholic Montana inn owner in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, Kirsten Dunst is the fourth Supporting Actress entry for my Case Of posts. If you missed the first three, they’re here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessie Buckley

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ariana DeBose

Oscars 2021: The Case of Judi Dench

The Case for Kirsten Dunst:

Despite not turning 40 until next month, Dunst has been a fixture on the big screen for over a quarter century. She’s had sizable hits like Bring It On and the original Spider-Man trilogy and critically appreciated performances such as The Virgin Suicides and The Beguiled. This marks her first Oscar nomination some 27 years after a Golden Globe nod for her breakout role in Interview with the Vampire. With Dog leading all nominated films at 12 mentions, voters may decide it’s time to recognize her. Dunst also turned up in the key precursors (Globes, SAG, Critics Choice).

The Case Against Kirsten Dunst:

Ariana DeBose. The West Side Story actress won the Globe and SAG and is widely seen as the strong favorite. Dog‘s best opportunity at an acting victory is with Kodi Smit-McPhee in Supporting Actor and not Dunst, her real life beau Jesse Plemons, or Benedict Cumberbatch.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

Dunst appears to be the runner-up in this race, but she’s still a long shot considering DeBose’s momentum.

My Case Of posts will continue in Supporting Actor with Dunst’s Spider-Man costar J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos

Oscars 2021: The Case of Will Smith

My fourth Case Of post for the Best Actor competitors is Will Smith in King Richard. If you missed the previous entries, they can be found here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Javier Bardem

Oscars 2021: The Case of Benedict Cumberbatch

Oscars 2021: The Case of Andrew Garfield

The Case for Will Smith:

As the doggedly determined father of eventual tennis royalty Venus and Serena Williams, Smith has held frontrunner status for months. He lost his first two bids in 2001 and 2006 for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, respectively. As one of the most bankable stars of the past quarter century, Hollywood could certainly feel like it’s time to honor him. The Golden Globe and SAG voters moved in the that direction as he took both awards for his work. Richard also over performed at the Oscars with six nominations.

The Case Against Will Smith:

There’s not much of one except there’s been upsets previously in this race. That includes last year when Anthony Hopkins (The Father) took the statue over the favored Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Playing the role of spoiler could be Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, which dominated overall nods at 12. If Cumberbatch wins the Critics Choice award or BAFTA, look for plenty of chatter on the tightness of this competition.

Previous Nominations: 2

Ali (2001 – Actor); The Pursuit of Happyness (2006 – Actor)

The Verdict:

Look for Smith to be crowned the victor, but there’s a nagging feeling that Cumberbatch could surprise.

My Case Of posts will continue with Kirsten Dunst’s Supporting Actress bid for The Power of the Dog

Oscars 2021: The Case of Nicole Kidman

Playing TV legend Lucille Ball, Nicole Kidman’s performance in Being the Ricardos is next up in my Case Of posts for the Best Actress nominees. If you didn’t catch the first three entries, they’re here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessica Chastain

Oscars 2021: The Case of Olivia Colman

Oscars 2021: The Case of Penelope Cruz

The Case for Nicole Kidman:

It actually seems like Kidman should have more than five nominations and she hasn’t won in 19 years. Ricardos is a golden opportunity for the Academy to make her a two-time winner. The Golden Globes made a victory here more possible when she took the top Drama prize at that ceremony. Oscar voters were clearly impressed with the cast as Javier Bardem and J.K. Simmons also received nods.

The Case Against Nicole Kidman:

A SAG award might’ve made her the heavy frontrunner, but Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) won it. Ricardos itself received mixed critical reaction and missed major categories like Picture and Original Screenplay.

Previous Nominations: 4

Moulin Rouge! (2001 – Actress); The Hours (2002 – Actress, WON)Rabbit Hole (2010 – Actress); Lion (2016 – Supporting Actress)

The Verdict:

As has been discussed many times on the blog, Best Actress is wide open (just like last year). I’d say Kidman and Chastain (based on their early hardware) probably stand the best chance, but nobody is an overwhelming favorite by any means.

My Case OF posts will continue with Best Actor hopefuls and Will Smith in King Richard