Blogger’s Update (12/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising down Resurrections prediction from $30.7 million for the three-day and $47.2 million for the five-day to $26.7 million and $40.3 million for the five-day
The Matrix Resurrections won’t be The One when it opens December 22nd, giving itself a five-day Christmas rollout. That’s thanks to what should be a robust sophomore frame for Spider-Man: No Way Home. It might not even be The Two if Sing 2 manages to squeak by it for the runner-up position.
Arriving 18 years after The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions hit screens in 2003, this is the fourth franchise entry that began in 1999 and changed how we look at action blockbusters. The original Matrix is a landmark. The sequels that followed were met with considerably more mixed reaction (especially part 3).
Lana Wachowski directs without her sister Lilly (they made the trilogy together). Returning are Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Lambert Wilson, and Jada Pinkett Smith. New to the game are Yahya Abdul-Mateen (taking over for Laurence Fishburne as a more youthful Morpheus), Jessica Henwick, Jonathan Groff, Neil Patrick Harris, Priyanka Chopra Jones, and Christina Ricci. Once slated for May, it was postponed for pandemic purposes.
There’s no doubt that Resurrections is an event picture that has many devotees of the series ready to rush out. That said, it’s a major question mark as to how high this gets. While this is certainly an experience many will want to catch on the biggest screen possible, there is the option to view it simultaneously on HBO Max. Plenty of viewers not of the die-hard persuasion could choose to watch from the comfort of the couch. And while I’m sure many younger viewers are familiar with parts I-III – they may not have the reverence for it that fans, say, 35 and up do. Furthermore there is that pesky Spider-Man hanging around gobbling up the Yuletide dollars.
Don’t get me wrong. Resurrections could have a huge opening and amass $70 million from Wednesday to Sunday. Reloaded took in over $90 million for its start and held the title of highest grossing R-rated pic for over a decade until Deadpool replaced it. On the other hand, Revolutions couldn’t keep up and petered out with $139 million total.
One rather obvious comp is Dune, another sci-fi spectacle that followed 2021’s Warner Bros pattern of premiering their theatrical fare on HBO’s subscription service. It made $40 million over the traditional opening weekend. I’m estimating that Resurrections won’t hit that number from Friday to Sunday, but that the extra two days could bring in $45-$50 million.
The Matrix Resurrections opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $40.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
When Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man trilogy kicked off nearly 20 years ago, it managed to nab a Best Visual Effects nod (losing to Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers). Two years later, the 2004 sequel won the prize. Since then, the five Spidey features that followed (Maguire’s third, both Andrew Garfield iterations, and the first two Tom Holland MCU flicks) didn’t show up in the race. Will Spider-Man: No Way Home change that?
The 27th entry (and fourth this year) in the Marvel Cinematic Universe debuts Friday and I have it pegged for the fourth best domestic opening of all time (behind Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens). The review embargo lifted early this morning and it stands at an impressive 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While nearly all critical notices are positive, I don’t think this will be the second MCU title to nab a Best Picture nomination behind Black Panther. While Best Sound is feasible, Home‘s best hope at Academy inclusion is in Visual Effects. MCU movies vying for that prize is not unusual. The inaugural pic in the biggest franchise of all (2008’s Iron Man) made the cut. So have Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Iron Man 3, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Infinity War, and Endgame. None have won.
So despite the last quintet of web slinger sagas not being honored for their effects, Home should have no problem? I don’t think it’s quite that simple. There are two Warner Bros sci-fi extravaganzas (Dune and The Matrix Resurrections) that should get in. That leaves three slots. Warner has another hopeful with Godzilla vs. Kong. Marvel itself has Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Eternals (and Black Widow to a lesser degree) vying for spots. Shang-Chi especially could get in (the Critics Choice Awards included it on their ballot). Don’t Look Up, Finch, and No Time to Die are other possibilities. It’s worth noting that whether Home makes the five, Dune is the very heavy favorite to take gold.
Here’s my hunch: by the time Academy voters cast their final votes, Home appears bound to have heightened box office numbers to their highest achievements in the pandemic era. That fact alone might get it some recognition from the Oscars and that would be for its visuals. Another interesting stat: of the ten current largest stateside premieres ever, only two (Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World) didn’t score at least one nomination from the Academy. That puts this in a decent position. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
**Blogger’s Note (12/14): After elevating my Spidey prediction from $193.7M to $223.7M – I’m reverting down to $188.7M… (12/16) – Spidey revised to $213.7M and Alley down to $3.3M
Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home looks to demolish pandemic era records and possibly double the opening weekend record of these COVID times and then some. We also have Guillermo del Toro’s noir thriller Nightmare Alley with Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, and plenty of other Oscar winners and nominees out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies right here:
Spidey is poised for numbers not seen since 2019. Some prognostications have this as high as $250 million. I’m going with a $223.7 million haul, but I must say I do so with some trepidation due to these continuing uncertain times. If it achieves my mark, that would be good for the 4th largest domestic debut of all time (right behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just ahead of its sequel The Last Jedi).
There’s obviously no question as to what will be #1. Home will do that by outgrossing the rest of the top five combined with possibly $200 million to spare. What’s #2 is a legitimate question. West Side Story had a disappointing debut and will hope to leg out well over the coming holiday frames. It may have a soft sophomore dip due to being counter programming to Spidey. Yet I’ll peg it for a 40% drop as it hopes to rebound over Christmas and with ongoing awards buzz. That could put it in a fierce battle for the runner-up position with Encanto.
Or… Nightmare Alley could open in second. I’m skeptical. Despite an all-star cast and coming from an acclaimed director, Alley is starting out at a distinct disadvantage with the web slinger siphoning away much of its intended crowd. I’ll say it kicks off with a subdued 4th place start. Ghostbusters: Afterlife should round out the top five.
And with that, my take on what should be a record breaking weekend:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $213.7 million
2. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $6 million
3. West Side Story
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
5. Nightmare Alley
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (December 10-12)
There likely wasn’t a whole lot of celebratory dancing at 20th Century Studios as West Side Story struggled out of the gate. Its $10.5 million barely managed a #1 showing and came in under my $14.8 million call. As mentioned, the story may not be over as audiences could find it over the holidays. Its studio is certainly hoping so.
Encanto slipped to second with $9.9 million, above my $8.5 million take for $71 million overall.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife was third at $7.1 million (ahead of my $5.8 million prediction) for $112 million total.
Fourth place was House of Gucci with $4.1 million. My projection was on the money at $4 million. Tally is $41 million.
Eternals was in the five spot with $3.1 million (I said $2.8 million) as it’s up to $161 million.
Last and least, the football drama National Champions fumbled terribly. I thought it might manage $1.6 million. Not so much. It was an unlucky 13th with $321,000. Oof.
The Critics Choice Awards, on the same day the Golden Globes did so, announced their nominations for their best of 2021. This is a particularly tricky group to predict and not for just normal reasons like who’s in and who’s out. The critics group seems to fluctuate the number of contenders in a given race year by year. There’s always ten for Best Picture but it can be anywhere from 5-7 on the others (this explains why I projected more nominees than there were in some competitions).
Belfast and West Side Story led the way with 11 nods apiece with Dune and The Power of the Dog close behind with 10. That foursome likely stands as the top quartet in the Oscars derby for the grand prize.
As I did with the Globes, let’s walk through each category and see how I did. FYI – I made predictions for Best Action and Sci-Fi/Horror Movie yesterday, but the critics apparently jettisoned those races. Overall I went 98 for 132.
Best Picture
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Tick Tick… Boom!, West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Comments: Only misstep here was having The Tragedy of Macbeth over Boom! For Nightmare Alley, this was a nice bounce back after being completely snubbed by HFPA this morning. The strongest hopeful might be Belfast but it’s no surefire winner.
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: I got all the nominees correct, but I had an extra in there with Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth). Both the critics and the Globes weren’t kind to Macbeth. I don’t see Anderson or del Toro taking this award. The other four are feasible.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
How I Did: 5/7
Comments: Once again, I pegged 7 individuals but the number was six. Haim scored a nod over my picks of Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). This could go four directions in my view – Chastain, Gaga, Kidman, or Stewart.
Best Actor
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Pig), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick… Boom!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: Just like Director, I had the players right and not the number. My extra was Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon, who’s seeing his viability dwindle. Actor is shaping up to a showdown between Cumberbatch and Smith.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Little surprised that Ruth Negga (Passing) missed with the critics and landed with the Globes. Rita Moreno takes her spot. This is a tough race to call with Balfe and DeBose as soft favorites.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: In this wide open group, Smit-McPhee could reign supreme as he’s picking up early critics notices. I had Jon Bernthal (King Richard) and Jason Isaacs (Mass) in over Leto and Simmons.
Best Ensemble
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, The Harder They Fall, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Had CODA and Dune instead of Harder and Pizza. Belfast, Power, and Story all possible with this one.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Picked an extra nominee here too. Ricardos got in over C’Mon C’Mon and Mass. Like the Oscars, this should boil down to Belfast v. Pizza.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Yet another extra nominee situation and I had The Last Duel (which came up empty-handed) and Macbeth instead of Dune. This race should go to the Dog.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: After its Globes snub, Mitchells factors in here. I had Belle as opposed to Raya (which had a good morning with HFPA and this). Encanto or Flee are the two probable takers.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Had an extra selection with Titane (which didn’t score with Globes either). A Hero could win, but Car is coming up strong.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Finally got one totally right! Dune v. Dog is the expectation.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Alley continued its better than expected showing to the detriment of Cyrano and The French Dispatch. This one could go to Cruella.
Best Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Pizza over my picks of Don’t Look Up and King Richard. This could be a Dune trophy or West Side Story.
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Alley over Spencer (which had a subpar day). Gucci could fashion a victory.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/6
Comments: Didn’t pick Belfast or Dispatch. Incorrectly called Cyrano, Last Duel, and Macbeth. I expect this to be between Dune and Alley.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Spencer
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Didn’t have Don’t Look Up. Did have Dispatch and Macbeth. This goes to either Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Be Alive” from King Richard, “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall, “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up, “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: “Guns” gets in over “Beyond the Shore” from CODA and (somewhat surprisingly) “Down to Joy” from Belfast. “Alive” and Beyonce could reign supreme.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, The Matrix Resurrections, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
How I Did: 2/7
Comments: Yikes. Where to begin? Only had Dune and Shang-Chi correct. I didn’t think Matrix had screened so therefore it was left off. There were seven nominees last year, but only five in 2021. The five I wrongly called were Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Finch, Free Guy, and Godzilla vs. Kong.
Best Comedy Movie
Nominees: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Don’t Look Up, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Got ’em all but had an extra with Red Rocket. Thinking Pizza sounds good in this one.
Best Young Performer
Nominees: Jude Hill (Belfast), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Saniyya Sidney (King Richard), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Ending on a high note! I’ll say Zegler, but don’t discount Hill.
That means these films achieved these numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
CODA, House of Gucci
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, Mass, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Pig, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Worst Person in the World
I’ll have final predictions for this show shortly before its airing on January 9th!
Under a cloud of controversy and uncertainty as to what their January 9th ceremony will even look like (it won’t be on NBC), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees this morning for the 79th Annual Golden Globe Awards.
Per usual, there were some surprises though no Kate Hudson for Best Actress in Music level one like in 2020. Overall I went 49/70 in my picks for the 14 cinematic races – going perfect in just one derby while striking out 2/5 in two others.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary and my initial thoughts on who/what could win:
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: No shockers here as my runner-up CODA got in over Nightmare Alley. Guillermo del Toro’s noir thriller got zero love from the HFPA and it’ll need to rally with Oscar voters. Belfast and Dog led all nods with seven apiece. Both could vie for the victory with the former perhaps having a slight edge.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Tick Tick… Boom!, West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Comments: The real mystery here was whether Cyrano or In the Heights would be the third musical of the bunch. I picked correctly. Seeing that Steven Spielberg is the only director in this race nominated, it’s hard to imagine West Side Story not emerging victorious here.
Best Director
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Gyllenhaal’s inclusion was not anticipated and she got in over my selection of Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley. Truth be told, I could see any of the other four hopefuls taking this prize.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Colman in over Jennifer Hudson (Respect). This could absolutely be the Oscar five. Stewart is the soft frontrunner with any other of the performers viable.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: Bardem getting in is not all that unexpected but I didn’t see Ali coming. They make the cut over Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) and Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). This one should boil down to Smith and Cumberbatch.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Annette), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up), Emma Stone (Cruella), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Cotillard over Haley Bennett for Cyrano. As for the favorite, expect West Side Story to carry Zegler.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick… Boom!), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Anthony Ramos (In the Heights)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: I went a little out there with my fifth pick of Ryan Reynolds in Free Guy. Hoffman is here instead. Garfield is out in front in this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Negga gets a needed boost (I had Meryl Streep for Don’t Look Up in her slot). If Jodie Foster could win an upset victory last year here for The Mauritanian, any of these performers could win.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: The Golden Globes often go for big names so the fact that Kotsur got in with HFPA bodes well for his Oscar chances. He and Affleck make it over my picks of Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci). Conversely I’d argue that if Leto can’t make it here, his Academy prospects look shaky. Smit-McPhee is picking up critics prizes but this race is wide open in my view.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: The HFPA loves them some Aaron Sorkin and his Ricardos script triumphs over West Side Story. This could be Belfast, Pizza, or Power.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, My Sunny Maad, Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: My Sunny Maad came out of nowhere. Not so much with Raya. They’re in instead of The Mitchells vs. the Machines (which I’m genuinely surprised missed) and Vivo (which I’m not). Don’t discount Flee, but Encanto is the likely winner.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Compartment No. 6, Drive My Car, The Hand of God, A Hero, Parallel Mothers
How I Did: 2/5
Comments: Ouch. Only got Drive My Car and A Hero correct (and they could duke it out for the prize). On the cutting room floor: Flee, Titane, and The Worst Person in the World. Mothers could contend here as well.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Dune, Encanto, The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 2/5
Comments: The pain continues as I only called Dune and Power correctly. The others are in over Nightmare Alley, Spencer, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. This should be Dune, but Power is possible too.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Be Alive” from King Richard, “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, “Down to Joy” from Belfast, “Here I Am” from Respect, “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: The Encanto and Respect cuts make it instead of “Every Letter” from Cyrano and “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. Like the Oscars, this could be a battle between Beyonce (“Be Alive”) and Billie Eilish (“No Time to Die”).
That means the following films garnered these numbers with their nominations:
7 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Dune, Encanto
2 Nominations
CODA, Cyrano, The Lost Daughter, Parallel Mothers, Tick Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
Annette, Compartment No. 6, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The French Dispatch, The Hand of God, A Hero, House of Gucci, In the Heights, Luca, My Sunny Maad, No Time to Die, Passing, Raya and the Last Dragon, Respect, Spencer, Swan Song, The Tender Bar, The Tragedy of Macbeth
As if the Golden Globe nominations coming tomorrow morning weren’t confusing enough to figure out, we also have the nods on the same day for the Critics Choice Awards. They’re frequently a reliable indicator of which way the Academy could go. However, there’s a caveat. While both branches choose ten pictures, the other races can fluctuate between 5-7 nominees. Generally Director and the lead acting races are seven while supporting and the screenplay derbies are six. The rest are a rather (needlessly unpredictable) mix. This show also contains some categories not seen in others like Best Ensemble, action, comedy, and sci-fi/horror pics, and Young Performer.
Here’s my best shot at projecting what the critics will do. The ceremony itself hits January 9th… the same day as the Globes. And as I did with the Globes, I’ll name runners-up and second alternates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
C’Mon C’Mon
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Runner-Up: Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Dune
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: The Summit of the Gods
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: I’m Your Man
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Spencer
Runner-Up: The Last Duel
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Dune
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Belfast
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Every Letter” from Cyrano
Second Alternate: “Here I Am” from Respect
Best Visual Effects (note that it is unlikely that The Matrix Resurrections or Spider-Man: No Way Home screened in time for inclusion)
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Eternals
Finch
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: The Green Knight
Second Alternate: The Suicide Squad
Best Action Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
The Harder They Fall
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Nobody
Second Alternate: Eternals
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Red Rocket
Runner-Up: Cruella
Second Alternate: Zola
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Candyman
Dune
Finch
Free Guy
A Quiet Place Part II
Runner-Up: The Suicide Squad
Second Alternate: Titane
Best Young Performer
Predicted Nominees:
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Jude Hill, Belfast
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Demi Singleton, King Richard
This list means I’m projecting the following number of nominations for these movies:
12 Nominations
Dune
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
King Richard
7 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth
6 Nominations
CODA
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mass, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Being the Ricardos, Belle, Black Widow, Candyman, Drive My Car, Eternals, Finch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall, A Hero, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Pig, A Quiet Place Part II, Red Rocket, The Suicide Squad, Tick Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Reaction (along with that for the Globes) up tomorrow!
Let’s begin with this blanket statement… I’m basically flying a bit blind with my predictions for the Golden Globe Awards, which will be revealed tomorrow morning. For those who don’t follow the awards derbies closely like I do, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been in some considerable hot water for the last couple of years. So much so that NBC has decided they won’t air the January 9th ceremony due to lack of diversity for its voting membership. There were genuine questions as to whether the HFPA would even hold an event for their 79th awards, but they are pushing forward amidst the controversy.
Then there’s the simply the matter of the Globes being quite unpredictable. We tend to see a shocker nomination at least once a year… remember Kate Hudson’s nod in Actress (Musical/Comedy) for the barely seen and critically reviled Sia directed Music in 2020? Then the voters went ahead and nominated the picture itself!
Last year in Supporting Actress, Jodie Foster scored a surprise nomination and win for The Mauritanian. The Academy didn’t even bother to nominate her. In Supporting Actor, both Jared Leto (The Little Things) and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) made the cut in Supporting Actor though not at the Oscars. This is why my general rule at the Globes is to fill in bigger names when I’ve got a spot or two left over in an acting race.
The HFPA’s method of dividing Drama and Musical/Comedy always creates category questions and that holds true in 2021. Where’s CODA? Or House of Gucci and C’Mon C’Mon? Or Being the Ricardos. We don’t know. For prediction purposes, I’m putting them in Drama. Obviously, if they’re not, that would alter my estimates and make some of my calls moot.
Let’s take go through the categories one by one and see how this guesswork turns out, shall we? I’ll do a runner-up and second alternate for each race as well.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
King Richard
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: CODA
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary – At this point, Belfast, Dune, King Richard, and Power of the Dog seem like pretty safe bets. Any one of them missing out would be considered a significant snub. The fifth slot is wide open in my view. The surging CODA (if it’s placed in Drama) could certainly make the cut. Tragedy is a strong possibility and I wouldn’t count out Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon and House of Gucci (if they’re in Drama), The Last Duel, or Spencer. Despite some critical reservations, I’ll go with Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. It’s important to remember that foreign films are relegated to their own category at the Globes. That’s why Parasite didn’t show up here two years ago and it’s why A Hero or Drive My Car won’t contend in this competition.
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Runner-Up: In the Heights
Second Alternate: Cruella
Commentary – The Musical/Comedy derby actually has a bunch of musicals to choose from in 2021 and West Side Story and Tick Tick… Boom! especially seem like surefire additions. Between In the Heights and Cyrano, I’m giving the latter a slight edge (though both could make it). Licorice Pizza should get in though I’m a tad more unsure about Don’t Look Up. I would generally say the top six listed here will be duking it out for five slots (Cruella is kind of a throwaway addition but if Music could get in…)
**Note that pics like CODA, Gucci, or Being the Ricardos could be campaigned for here and not Drama and that could change the dynamic.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Commentary – Feeling good about Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve. The 5 spot is tougher but I’ll give del Toro the nod over Anderson (who, somehow, has never been nominated for a Globe).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Second Alternate: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Commentary – So here’s when it gets truly complicated as Gaga, Hudson, and Kidman could all theoretically wind up in Musical/Comedy. If not, both Gaga and Kidman seem like likely nominees in Drama. So do Chastain and Stewart. I’m picking Hudson over considerable competition that includes Colman, Comer, Emilia Jones in CODA (if placed here), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), and Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Cumberbatch, Smith, and Washington are obvious choices. The other two slots – not so much. Phoenix could be in Musical/Comedy, but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and put him here. Same with runner-up Bardem. As much as I’d like to anoint Cage for Pig, I’ll hedge with Cooper in Alley. Super dark horse choice: Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Haley Bennett, Cyrano
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Melissa Barrera, In the Heights
Second Alternate: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Once again – there’s some women I have in Drama that might shift over this way (Gaga, Hudson, Kidman, Jones). That would make this category more interesting as, right now, this is Zegler’s to lose based on my current composition. If serious hopefuls like Gaga and Kidman stay in Drama, this race could be ripe for an out of nowhere pick (I’m thinking either Annie Mumolo or Kristin Wiig in Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Ryan Reynolds, Free Guy
Runner-Up: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Simon Rex, Red Rocket
Commentary – The first four seem probable and the safer choice for #5 would be Hoffman (that’s if Joaquin Phoenix or Javier Bardem don’t play here). I gotta pick at least one head scratcher though so let’s throw in Reynolds for the hit Free Guy!
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Commentary – Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Ellis are likely. If any of that quartet miss, it could be Dunst. I’m utilizing my aforementioned big name theory by picking Streep in the five spot. Could be Moreno or Blanchett and the star power could overshadow other possibilities like Ruth Negga (Passing) or Ann Dowd (Mass).
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Mike Faist, West Side Story
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Commentary – No one can really make heads or tails of Supporting Actor in 2021 so there’s some winging it happening. I’ll say both Belfast boys get in while HFPA recognizes Cooper’s limited screen time in Pizza and Leto’s out there performance in Gucci. Smit-McPhee has been picking up critics awards and that could get him in. Truth be told… anything could happen in this one.
Best Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Being the Ricardos
The one I’m uncertain about is Don’t Look Up with its many lackluster reviews, but I’ll go for it over Richard. I also wouldn’t completely dismiss Ricardos due to the Aaron Sorkin factor.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Vivo
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: Belle
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: The Hand of God
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Every Letter” from Cyrano
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Second Alternate: “So May We Start” from Annette
My picks equate to the following scorecard in terms of total nominations:
7 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
West Side Story
4 Nominations
Cyrano, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Dune
2 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Free Guy, A Hero, In the Heights, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Respect, Titane, Vivo, The Worst Person in the World
I’ll have a post up later tomorrow with my results! Critics Choice predictions are next…
It’s been a question nagging at me for a few days now. Is Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast truly the Best Picture frontrunner? I’ve had it ranked #1 for weeks and weeks. Yet I find myself moving away from it in other top of the line races. And that casts a shadow of doubt and a legitimate one.
Why? Let’s start with Best Director. I’ve never had Branagh listed in first place. That spot has mostly been held by Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. I also believe Denis Villeneuve could be honored for Dune. And West Side Story holds the ability to make a real impact and that could sweep its maker (his name is Steven Spielberg) in. Even if Branagh doesn’t take the gold for his behind the camera work, that doesn’t eliminate Belfast for Pic contention. Those races often split (8 out of 21 times this century).
So let’s move onto its Original Screenplay. Up until the last few days, I had Belfast placed first there. However, I’ve replaced it with Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. Once again, not winning screenplay doesn’t necessarily forecast losing Best Picture. That’s occurred six times in the 21 21st century ceremonies (including with last year’s Nomadland).
Here’s where it gets trickier. What’s the latest Best Picture winner to land the gold statue without a Director or Screenplay victory? That would be 19 years ago with Chicago. It happened two years prior to that with Gladiator.
What do both of those films have in common? They both picked up another major award. For Gladiator, it was Russell Crowe in Best Actor. With Chicago – Catherine Zeta-Jones’s Supporting Actress win.
So if history is any guide, Belfast at least needs an acting win. That’s absolutely possible in either supporting race. I’ve had Caitriona Balfe at #1 for some time (while having her costar Judi Dench on the outside looking in). I’m not sure if she stays there when I do my update this week. Her biggest threat to lose could come from Ariana DeBose in West Side Story. I also wouldn’t count out Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard or Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog.
Supporting Actor is wide open. Both Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan’s performances in Belfast could make the cut. I don’t have either in first place. That slot belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog at the moment. Anything could happen in Supporting Actor and hopefully the picture becomes more clear as precursors bestow their best of’s. We could see contenders like Troy Kotsur (CODA), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), or Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) rise.
My point is this. The idea that Belfast doesn’t win Director, any acting race, or screenplay is quite feasible. If that occurs, how can it be considered the favorite for the biggest competition of the bunch?
Of course this post could be premature. Belfast could win Director, Original Screenplay, and podium trips for Balfe and probably Hinds over Dornan (or some combo of that). Or there’s the other scenario. If Licorice Pizza takes screenplay and the supporting prizes go elsewhere and a different filmmaker takes their race, Oscar night is more likely to end in a West Side story or with a Dog flexing power or with a Pizza delivery.
Santa Claus is comin’ to frown in Fatman, which should have never gotten past the conceptual stage. From brother directors Eshom and Ian Nelms, Mel Gibson is a dour Chris Cringle. Holiday cheer isn’t what it used to be and neither is business. He’s remotely located in Alaska with supportive wife Ruth (Marianne Jean-Baptiste) and the elves and reindeer when an overachieving kid and the U.S. government cramp his style.
His toy making enterprise is disrupted by the military (they’ve got a contact with him) and his diminutive workers are tasked with making parts for a fighter jet. A different kind of contract is put out on Santa’s head by spoiled brat Billy (Chance Hurstfield). When he receives a lump of coal on Christmas morning, he hires hitman Jonathan (Walton Goggins) to exact revenge on the bearded icon. This is no problem for the eccentric assassin as he harbors childhood ill will toward the no longer jolly Saint Nick.
A potentially interesting idea is simply squandered here. Fatman isn’t good for many laughs or thrilling action sequences. The industrial complex themes are reminiscent of Barry Levinson’s expensive bomb Toys from 1992. When that’s the only comparison that comes to mind, you’re in trouble. It’s as if the filmmakers (who also wrote the script) believed the notion of Santa toting weapons and protecting his turf was enough to fill 100 minutes. Turns out the answer is no no no! Gibson’s Cringle is supposed to be bored for the most of the running time so that sort of explains his performance. You’ll (or shall I say) yule be right there with him in this joyless slog.
The last time Guillermo del Toro was behind the camera, 13 Oscar nominations came his way with 2017’s The Shape of Water (including wins in Picture and Director). His follow-up is Nightmare Alley, a remake of a 1947 pic which was based on a 1946 William Lindsay Gresham novel. The noirish thriller boasts an impressive cast led by Bradley Coper (in his first starring role since 2018’s A Star Is Born). Costars include Rooney Mara, Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Mary Steenburgen, and David Strathairn.
Long looked at as an Oscar contender, the recent review embargo lapse made the situation a bit murkier. The 83% Rotten Tomatoes score is decent, but some critics are griping that it’s a disappointment. Its standing in the Best Picture race is questionable.
Stronger awards buzz could have pushed this to higher numbers, but that’s not the only challenge. Plenty of moviegoers will be distracted with the release of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which looks to blow away pandemic era records. Alley is only opening on about 2000 screens (about half of Spidey’s). It’s normal for projects in the December time frame to open relatively small and hope to play well in subsequent frames. That is likely to be the case here and low to mid single digits is my forecast.
Nightmare Alley opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million
For my Spider-Man: No Way Home prediction, click here:
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