Keanu Reeves returns to science fiction territory next weekend with the release of Replicas. The thriller casts him as a neuroscientist who clones his family after they’re killed in an auto accident. Costars include Alice Eve, Thomas Middleditch, and John Ortiz. Jeffrey Nachmanoff, best known as the screenwriter for TheDayAfterTomorrow, directs.
While its lead has certainly had success in the genre (TheMatrix), it hasn’t always been that way (JohnnyMnemonic anyone?). Reeves should have a hit at the box office this year, but that will come in May with JohnWick: Parabellum. This effort appears to be getting the unceremonious January dump.
I’ll say Replicas gets low single digits and disappears quickly.
We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:
Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)
14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)
8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)
4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
5. Shirkers (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. RBG (PR: 5)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)
10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dark Money
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Black Panther (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
8. Widows (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 10)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Vice (PR: 2)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Border (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)
8. Roma (PR: 6)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
10. Vice (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)
9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:
12 Nominations
Black Panther
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Roma
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Sony Pictures is hoping ADog’sWayHome will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made DolphinTale and its sequel, directs.
When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, ADog’sPurpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, MeganLeavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, DogDays managed just $2.5 million.
My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.
ADog’sWayHome opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
An adaptation of the well-regarded 2011 French film TheIntouchables, next weekend sees the long brewing release of the comedic drama TheUpside. Kevin Hart stars as a former convict who starts working for a paraplegic billionaire played by Bryan Cranston. Nicole Kidman costars and Neil Burger (who recently made Limitless and Divergent) directs.
TheUpside first premiered at the Toronto Film Festival way back in the fall of 2017 and was shelved for months when the Weinstein Company fell into its well publicized controversies. Critical reaction from Canada was mixed with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 55%.
Hart has been subject to his own negative publicity lately that resulted in his dropping out of hosting the Oscars. He’s been a consistently strong commodity at the box office over the past few years. However, that’s been with pictures played just for laughs without the dramatic elements. His potency in slightly more serious material is questionable.
A January release isn’t a major sign of confidence from its studio. I’ll say Hart and company could get this to high teens at its upside, but I suspect low double digits to teens is the likelihood.
TheUpside opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
We are just two days into the new year, but it’s already time for my first Oscar Watch post of 2019. That’s because HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld comes out in Australia tomorrow before its stateside release on February 22. Early reviews are out and the third and final installment of the Dreamworks Animation franchise is receiving solid ones. The action fantasy sequel stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
In 2010, the original Dragon nabbed a Best Animated Feature nod at the Oscars. Four years later, part 2 accomplished the same. Both pictures lost to titles coming from the mighty Mouse Factory – ToyStory3 and BigHero6, respectively. The Disney competition will be fierce this year with ToyStory4 and Frozen2.
That said, even at this extraordinarily early date, the latest Dragon already looks like a serious contender for a nomination given the history of the series. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Happy New Year and welcome to the first box office predictions for 2019. It should be a weekend led by holiday holdovers with the only newcomer being horror pic EscapeRoom. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
My low teens projection puts the newbie in the #3 slot, behind returning champions Aquaman and MaryPoppinsReturns, with Bumblebee and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse filling out the rest of the top five.
Let’s see how I have the high-five playing out:
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. EscapeRoom
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Bumblebee
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (December28–30)
2018 was a record year at multiplexes and it closed out with Aquaman repeating in first place with $52.1 million, in range with my $53.8 million forecast. The DC superhero tale has amassed $189 million total.
MaryPoppinsReturns was in the runner-up position yet again with $28.3 million compared to my $26.5 million estimate. The Disney sequel stands at $99 million.
Bumblebee was third with $20.9 million (I said $21.4 million) for $67 million overall.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was fourth with $18.8 million, a touch higher than my $17.3 million take. The acclaimed animated feature crossed the century mark at $104 million.
TheMule rounded out the top five with $12.1 million, in line with my $11.5 million prediction. The Clint Eastwood thriller has made $61 million.
Vice was sixth and made the most of the two Christmas openers with $7.7 million over the traditional frame and $17.6 million since its Tuesday debut. The Dick Cheney biopic managed to top my respective estimates of $7.2 million and $14.8 million.
The critically lambasted Holmes&Watson had an underwhelming start in seventh with $7.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $19.8 million since Christmas Day. It came in under my projections of $11.3 million and $23 million.
SecondAct was eighth in its sophomore frame at $7.3 million (I said $7.9 million) for a tally of $21 million.
RalphBreakstheInternet was ninth at $6.7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million prediction. It’s up to $175 million.
TheGrinch had a hefty drop-off in 10th at $4.1 million, well under my $7.3 million forecast. The total gross is $265 million.
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