Jonah Hill has two Oscar nominations to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2011’s Moneyball and 2013’s TheWolfofWallStreet. Now the actor broadens his horizons this fall with Mid90s, his directorial debut which he also wrote. It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.
Based on early reactions from critics, Hill has made an impressive first feature behind the camera. The coming of age dramedy stars Sunny Suljic, Lucas Hedges (who’s everywhere this awards season with BoyErased and BenIsBack), and Katherine Waterston.
While reviews are solid, Mid90s doesn’t look like Best Picture kind of material for Academy voters. It’s best chance could be recognition for Hill in the Original Screenplay race.
Bottom line: while this looks poised to kickstart a second career for its maker, Oscar chatter could be hard to come by.
The film opens October 19 domestically. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
A quartet of new titles make their way to multiplexes this weekend: franchise reboot ThePredator, Anna Kendrick/Blake Lively thriller ASimpleFavor, crime drama WhiteBoyRick with Matthew McConaughey, and “spiritual sequel” Unbroken: PathtoRedemption. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Predator should have little trouble hitting the top spot, but I do have it on the lower end of the expectation range in the mid to high 20s.
The Nun got off a terrific start (more on that below) and I do expect a rather large decline due to both front loaded business and fairly poor word of mouth (a C Cinemascore grade). A drop in the low to mid 60s is feasible here and horror pics often have significant declines anyway.
A Simple Favor is intriguing. I believe it should place third and I have it managing to reach its intended female audience with a healthy showing at the top end of estimates.
White Boy Rick has generated zero awards buzz after its Telluride premiere and I’m having trouble seeing it hit double digits. That would put it in fourth.
Even though Peppermint just outdid Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot this past weekend, I expect the latter to have a smaller decline and get the five-spot.
As for Unbroken: Path to Redemption, my lowly $2.5 million forecast puts it well outside the top 5.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. The Predator
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
2. The Nun
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
3. A Simple Favor
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
4. White Boy Rick
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (September 7-9)
Warner Bros was in full sister act level celebration mode this weekend as The Nun conquered the charts. The fifth entry in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe experienced the best debut of the franchise with $53.8 million compared to my $45.4 million projection. That’s good for the second highest September opening of all time behind last year’s It.
In a bit of a surprise, Jennifer Garner’s revenge tale Peppermint was second with a decent $13.4 million, topping my $11.8 million prediction. Overcoming poor reviews, the film reached the upper end of its projections. I see it dipping around 50% next weekend and falling out of the top five.
The three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians came to an end as it placed third with $13.1 million (I said $14.2 million) for $135 million total.
The Meg was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.4 million take and the shark tale has amassed $131 million.
Searching rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (in line with my $4.2 million prediction) for $14 million overall.
Finally, faith-based drama God Bless the Broken Road premiered in 11th place with a weak $1.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.1 million.
One of the most eagerly awaited titles screening at the Toronto Film Festival has premiered in the form of If Beale Street Could Talk, the third directorial feature from Barry Jenkins. As you may recall, his second film Moonlight took home the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2016 in rather memorable fashion over La La Land.
Beale Street is based on a James Baldwin novel and set in mid 70s Harlem. The pic sports a large ensemble cast led by Stephan James and Kiki Layne alongside Regina Hall, Colman Domingo, Teyonah Parris, Pedro Pascal, Diego Luna, Ed Skrein, and Dave Franco. Early reviews suggest this could be a player in multiple categories, including Best Picture and Director. In down the line races, it could be recognized for its score from Nicholas Britell as well as Cinematography, Editing, and Production Design. Jenkins could also contend for his Adapted Screenplay. While most critical reaction is strong, some have said it doesn’t quite match up to Moonlight. That said, we shall see if that particular buzz changes in the coming weeks and I feel pretty secure marking it for Picture consideration.
As for the cast, that’s a little murkier. James and Layne are receiving positive notices, but both the lead acting races seem awfully crowded. Both Hall and Parris could contend in Supporting Actress, but that too is far from guaranteed.
Bottom line: If Beale Street Could Talk likely did what it needed to do to be in the Picture and Director mix, while acting nods are a bit less clear.
The film opens domestically on November 30. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The film festival season always gives us plenty of Best Picture contenders and potential recipients for the acting categories and elsewhere. There’s also those movies that debut and completely eliminate themselves from contention due to poor reviews. At Toronto, that definitely appears to be the case with Dan Fogelman’s LifeItself (not to be confused with the terrific documentary about Roger Ebert).
Fogelman is most known for creating the hit NBC tearjerker series “This Is Us”. For his second feature film (after the barely noticed Al Pacino led DannyCollins), he’s assembled a cast including Oscar Isaac, Antonio Banderas, Annette Bening, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Simply put, critical reaction here has been bad, saying it’s manipulative and corny. Bottom line: LifeItself has taken itself out of any awards talk.
The film opens September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Five Oscars ago, Steve McQueen’s 12YearsaSlave took home Best Picture and it’s been five years for his follow-up to debut. That picture is Widows, a heist drama based on a 1983 British miniseries and it’s premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.
Reviews for the film are encouraging, but I’m not too sure they’re strong enough for a realistic shot at Best Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay (by the director and GoneGirl writer Gillian Flynn) nods.
As for the actors involved, that could be a different story. An impressive supporting cast includes Michelle Rodriguez, Colin Farrell, Jacki Weaver, Robert Duvall, and Liam Neeson. Most of the ink, however, has been reserved for its star Viola Davis. She won Supporting Actress just two years back for Fences. It appears she could factor into the lead Actress race this time around, though competition could be steep. If there’s anything chance at supporting players being recognized, both Daniel Kaluuya (nominated for last year’s GetOut) and Elizabeth Debicki have been singled out in some reviews.
Bottom line: Widows is doubtful for Best Picture, but Davis and maybe a supporting performance or two could be in the mix.
The film opens domestically on November 16. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Toronto Film Festival has screened a second high-profile drama centered on drug addiction following the mixed reaction of BeautifulBoy. That would be BenIsBack, the latest effort from director Peter Hedges. It stars Julia Roberts and the filmmaker’s son Lucas Hedges and early reviews indicate it could garner Oscar talk.
Critical buzz is strong, especially for Roberts. The chance of the actress earning a fifth Academy Award nod has increased. She won eighteen years ago for ErinBrockovich, in addition to nominations in Supporting Actress for SteelMagnolias (1989) and August: OsageCounty (2013) and lead for PrettyWoman (1990). A Best Actor nod for Hedges is more of a question mark. There is the possibility he could cancel himself out by also receiving votes in BoyErased.
Beyond the actors involved, Ben could also contend in Original Screenplay (which director Hedges wrote).
Bottom line: BenIsBack announced itself as a contender in Canada.
The film opens December 7 domestically. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Venice Film Festival has wrapped up its business with awards bestowed. Alfonso Cuaron’s autobiographical Mexico set drama Roma is the winner of the fest’s version of Best Picture – the Golden Lion.
This comes as no surprise. Roma has received rapturous reviews and it seems destined to compete at the Oscars in Best Picture and not just the Foreign Language race. It’s worth noting that last year’s Golden Lion recipient, Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater, went on to Oscar glory.
The Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize (basically runner-up) went to the Yorgos Lanthimos pic TheFavourite, which has also achieved the status of a likely contender come Oscar time. Olivia Colman took the Best Actress trophy for her work in it. And Willem Dafoe is Best Actor as Vincent Van Gogh in AtEternity’sGate. Both performers appear primed to hear their names mentioned in the Academy’s nominees for their respective lead races.
If there was a surprise, it’s the Coen Brothers winning Best Screenplay for their Western anthology TheBalladofBusterScruggs over Roma or TheFavourite. While critical reaction appeared somewhat mixed, one wonders if this could still have enough admirers to be a player in future awards mixes.
All in all, Roma and TheFavourite have solidified their place as true Oscar hopefuls.
Nineteen year old actress Amandla Stenberg is most known for her work as Rue in the original HungerGames and the 2017 romance Everything, Everything (she also headlined this summer’s box office flop TheDarkestMinds). The Toronto Film Festival has screened TheHateUGive, George Tillman Jr.’s crime drama where Stenberg’s character witnesses the shooting of her childhood best friend.
Early reviews suggest it could be a breakout role for the performer. The supporting cast includes Regina Hall, Common, and Anthony Mackie. The pic is based on last year’s YA novel by Angie Thomas. Tillman Jr. has seen many of his pics achieve financial success, such as SoulFood, Barbershop and Notorious. Awards recognition has alluded him.
Bottom line: TheHateUGive will need to get noticed by audiences in order for that recognition to have any chance. While reviews are strong, I’d say Oscar nods are a long shot and that includes Stenberg.
The film is slated for release on October 19. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
BeautifulBoy is one of the more anticipated premieres out of the Toronto Film Festival. The true life tale of a father (Steve Carell) and his drug addicted son (Timothee Chalamet), the film marks the English language debut of Belgian director Felix Van Groeningen.
Early reviews from up north are mixed. While it’s not out of the running for a Best Picture slot, it appears its chances have markedly decreased. This doesn’t hold true for the two leads, whose performances have been praised. It’s not entirely certain which categories they will be placed in, but Carell in lead Actor and Chalamet in Supporting Actor seems most probable. At this juncture, the latter race seems wide open. Chalamet was nominated just last year for his work in CallMebyYourName. Carell earned a nod in 2014 for Foxcatcher.
As for other races, both Maura Tierney and Amy Ryan could contend for Supporting Actress, but the male leads are getting the bulk of the ink.
Bottom line: Chalamet could be a shoo-in nominee if he’s campaigned for in Supporting Actress, with lead Actor recognition for Carell less certain.
BeautifulBoy opens October 12. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
One of the year’s most awaited documentaries has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in the form of Fahrenheit 11/9, the latest from Michael Moore. The film’s title, of course, slightly changes the numerical composition of the filmmaker’s biggest grosser Fahrenheit 9/11 from 2004.
Early critical reaction is out and it’s no surprise that many from the festival are praising Moore’s critical look at the current administration. The pic is also said to be equal parts a take down of the response to the Flint, Michigan water crisis. Some reviews have remarked that 11/9 (the date of President Trump’s election in 2016) isn’t quite as focused as his most acclaimed works.
Moore is no stranger to the Oscars. 2002’s Bowling for Columbine won the award for Best Documentary Feature and 2007’s Sicko was nominated. However, Fahrenheit 9/11 was not.
2018 has already seen at least three docs released that seem to be strong contenders for recognition in the doc race: RBG, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, and Three Identical Strangers. Academy voters may want to nominate 11/9 due to its political relevance, but I’m not sure at this point there will be room for it.
Bottom line: While Moore’s latest stands a chance at a nod, it’s no guarantee in a crowded field.
Fahrenheit 11/9 opens domestically on September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 