Superman’s Dad (Kevin Costner), Deadpool (Ryan Reynolds), Commissioner Gordon (Gary Oldman), Two-Face (Tommy Lee Jones), and Wonder Woman (Gil Gadot) headline the CIA action thriller Criminal, out next weekend. The pic hopes to bring in an older audience not preoccupied with taking their kids to see The Jungle Book.
It could be a tall order. I don’t believe the marketing campaign has done much to inspire enthusiasm and Costner’s track record over recent years has been spotty when he’s in the lead. This will be lucky to reach the $12.2 million that his 3 Days to Kill managed two years ago, though it’s certainly possible. Summit Entertainment’s best hope might be that audiences notice the participation of Mr. Reynolds (in a supporting part) so soon after the massive success of Deadpool.
It was a good day for Ice Cube in 2002 when Barbershop debuted to $20.6 million with an eventual $75M domestic gross. It was another good day when its sequel Barbershop 2: Back in Business opened with $24.2 million and a $65M overall haul.
Twelve years later, Barbershop: The Next Cut marks the third entry in the franchise with Mr. Cube returning alongside series regulars Cedric the Entertainer, Eve, and Sean Patrick Thomas. Regina Hall, Nicki Minaj, J.B. Smoove, Tyga, and Common also join the cutting crew.
The Next Cut continues the all of a sudden hot 2016 trend of comedy sequels to pictures released early in the 21st century. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 has posted decent numbers. Zoolander – No. 2? Not so much.
My feeling is that fans of this franchise will welcome its return, even if it’s been 12 years (not counting its 2005 spin-off Beauty Shop). I believe the possibility of this over performing is significantly greater than underperforming and have it opening just below what 2004’s sequel managed.
Barbershop: The Next Cut opening weekend prediction: $23.1 million
For the past month, Disney’s mega-hit Zootopia has cornered the family market and stampeded to a current gross of over $275 million. The next kiddie friendly blockbuster looks to be the studio’s own The Jungle Book, which swings into theaters next weekend.
From Iron Man director Jon Favreau, this animal tale remakes Disney’s 1967 animated pic based on Rudyard Kipling’s celebrated works. It also continues their recent trend (Maleficent, Cinderella) of live action remaking titles from their storied past. Book casts newcomer Neel Sethi as young Mowgli with lots of familiar faces voicing the creatures. That list includes Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley, Idris Elba, Scarlett Johansson, and Lupita N’Yongo.
As I see it, The Jungle Book appears primed for a terrific opening in range with the aforementioned Mouse Factory products. 2014’s Maleficent debuted to $69 million. Last year’s Cinderella premiered with $67 million. Their respective domestic hauls were $241M and $201M. Interestingly, just today, Warner Bros own Jungle Book remake (directed by Andy Serkis) has been pushed from 2017 to 2018.
Boasting a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score should only further positive word of mouth. I believe this could potentially top the remakes that came before it and exceed $70 million.
The Jungle Book opening weekend prediction: $74.6 million
For my Barbershop: The Next Cut prediction, click here:
Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:
I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.
As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. The Boss
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)
4. Hardcore Henry
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (April 1-3)
All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.
Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.
In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.
Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).
Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.
Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
This past week, Richard Linklater’s latest pic Everybody Wants Some!! came out in limited release and critical reaction has been strong. This has become typical for its director, who previous effort Boyhood received much Oscar attention (eventually losing in 2014 to Birdman).
His new effort is described as a “spiritual sequel” to his 1993 acclaimed cult classic Dazed and Confused. The 1980s set comedy features a cast of unknowns, though that might not be for long. You’ll recall that the “unknowns” from the aforementioned Dazed included Ben Affleck, Matthew McConaughey, Joey Lauren Adams, Milla Jovovich, and Parker Posey. Everybody currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90%.
So what does this all mean for its Oscar prospects? I would say this stands at outside shot at Best Picture and Director attention, though it’s probably unlikely. Where Some!! could shine is in the Original Screenplay category for Linklater. If so, it would mark his fourth nomination in the writing races (for Boyhood and Before Sunset and Before Midnight). That would appear to be its best chance at Academy attention several months down the road and it’d be foolish to count this celebrated director out.
Someday and hopefully soon, a comedic vehicle will come along to match the charisma and talent that Kevin Hart clearly possesses. It wasn’t Ride Along. It wasn’t Get Hard from last year. And it’s not The Wedding Ringer from two years past, which sprinkles in an occasional laugh when it’s not overdoing it by setting grandmothers on fire or extending a peanut butter/dog joke (yep…) far longer than it should.
The concept is simplistic and silly: Hart is Jimmy Callahan, who offers his services as a best man to guys who can’t find one. His latest project is a difficult one as Doug (Josh Gad) not only is without a lead guy to stand beside him – he has no groomsmen period. Doug is a big teddy bear and successful tax attorney who’s still in shock he landed a hottie (Kelly Cuoco-Sweeting) to say “I do”. Jimmy recruits a band of misfits to fill out the wedding party and assumes the identity of Bic Mitchum, a priest with military experience, for his role.
The Wedding Ringer then embarks upon a series of adventures for the twosome as they attempt to keep up their well-intentioned scheme, all in sitcom type scenarios (albeit R rated ones). Jimmy has a hard and fast rule to not actually become friends with his clients, but Doug tests it. The groom also begins to question just how much he is in love with his fiancee. Parties happen. Cliched football games with the father in law do, too. Uncomfortable family meals result in the aforementioned engulfed granny, played by Cloris Leachman. Then there’s that unfortunate peanut butter incident.
It basically comes down to this – despite a few genuinely humorous touches, most of Ringer is sophomoric, generic, and just not very funny. Despite their best efforts, both Hart and Gad deserve better, though they do share a pretty decent chemistry together. I’ll give this the distinction of being just slightly more tolerable than Hart’s Ride Along and Get Hard. That isn’t saying a lot.
“Say cheese” is the final line of Jelmari Helander’s Big Game and it’s an appropriate one because this Finnish director knows he’s paying homage to 80s/90s style PG-13 adventure in a tongue and cheek way. The result is a fast paced experience that doesn’t always transcend the cliches of the kind of pics it admires, but has some fun moments along the way.
The concept is of the highest order. The President of the United States Bill Moore (Samuel L. Jackson) is aboard Air Force One flying over Finland (though it was filmed in Germany) when it’s shot down by terrorists. The POTUS gets out through an escape pod, landing in the wilderness. Lucky for him, young Oskari (Onni Tommila) is on a hunting trip in the barren land. He’s about to turn 13 and it’s tradition in his family to show their manhood by bagging a bear or deer… or in this case, corrupt Secret Service agents and Middle Eastern looking baddies. The two team up to outrun their hunters, led by Ray Stevenson’s head agent gone rogue (think James Woods in White House Down). We also see the confusion happening in Washington D.C. as the VP (Victor Garber), an expert CIA man (Jim Broadbent, having a good time), and others including Felicity Huffman and Ted Levine try to save their leader.
Somewhat surprisingly, Helander’s screenplay doesn’t turn President Moore into a secret ass kicker like this material frequently does (think ID4’s Bill Pullman or Air Force One’s Harrison Ford). He’s a bit of a weakling (his approval rating is apparently upside down as well) and young Oskari is also trying to live up to his father’s legendary huntsman status. Moore’s survival skills are questionable as is his teenage companion’s bow and arrow abilities. In a role where one might think Jackson would overact, he gives an often tender performance, when he’s not trying to work a machine gun.
Action sequences are certainly not of the huge budget order, but they’re passable enough. The villains are pretty dull and non descript. For a quick fix of playful and knowingly ridiculous entertainment, Big Game isn’t bad even if its concept can’t completely sustain itself through the Finnish line. What I came away thinking the most is that director Helander could be a natural choice to helm a throwback genre that’s been rebooted or is currently producing sequels. With his clear admiration of the time period, he might do something worthwhile with Jurassic dinos or Goonies.
When Hardcore Henry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last year, it set off a wave of positive buzz to the tune of a current 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The sci-fi action thriller is touted as a “first person” experience in which the audience sees all the destruction and mayhem through the eyes of the title character. Sharlto Copley and Tim Roth are among the cast.
How will this experimental pic translate to box office dollars? I’m not overly optimistic. While certain fanboys have had this circled on their calendars for months now, I just don’t see this getting beyond a niche audience and I don’t believe it’ll reach double digits. So while Hardcore Henry could certainly become a cult hit, it may not necessarily become a real hit at the multiplexes.
Hardcore Henry opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Melissa McCarthy’s first comedy of 2016 is her second most anticipated of the year as The Boss debuts next weekend. Directed by her hubby Ben Falcone (who also made 2014’s Tammy), his wife plays a member of the 1% guilty of insider trading trying to rehabilitate her image. Kristen Bell, Peter Dinklage, and Kathy Bates costar.
Since her breakout role in 2011’s Bridesmaids, McCarthy has been a force in the genre. 2013’s Identity Thief made $34 million out of the gate while that same year’s collaboration with Sandra Bullock, The Heat, earned $39 million. The aforementioned Tammy took in $21 million over the July 4th, 2014 three day weekend with a $33 million five-day haul. Last summer’s Spy opened to $29 million.
Her comedies have proven to be mostly critic proof (Tammy was met with derision) and that should apply here. However, I’m a little skeptical that this reaches the mid-high 30s heights of her largest openers and I’d be somewhat surprised if this one tops $25 million. That is not likely to be the case with July’s eagerly anticipated Ghostbusters reboot that McCarthy is featured in. For The Boss, low to mid 20s seems to be the strongest probability.
The Boss opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
Zack Snyder’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is indeed Warner Bros answer to the Marvel Cinematic Universe – a realization that more is more when it comes to bringing their stable of DC’s most famous superheroes to the same screen. Where Disney’s Avengers are often considerably lighter in tone, these caped crusaders bring the bleakness to their proceedings. The template set forth by Nolan’s Dark Knight trilogy and Snyder’s Man of Steel is present here with the additional responsibility to begin the forthcoming Justice League series. At two and a half hours, BvS does feel overstuffed from time to time. There are elements that just don’t work, but I came away believing its merits outweighed its flaws. More is more, from the Nigel Tufnel approved decibel level of its score and sound effects to a variety of subplots fighting against one another for a cohesive whole. It shouldn’t work as well as it does and that’s a compliment to the director and the actors (most of them at least).
The film picks up 18 months after Man of Steel, when Henry Cavill’s Supes defeated General Zod (Michael Shannon), who appears in a lifeless performance and I don’t mean that negatively. That throwdown with Zod and the casualties that resulted has caused some in the public and some in the government to question Superman’s role in society. This includes a Kentucky senator (Holly Hunter) who’s opened hearings into it. She is not, however, his most important detractor. Bruce Wayne/Batman (Ben Affleck) is. Gotham City’s morose bachelor doesn’t believe Kal-El stands for Truth or Justice or the American Way. It leads to a royal rumble between them that marks the inaugural time we’ve seen these giants in tights together.
Due to the aforementioned Justice League features coming soon to a megaplex near you, we also are introduced to Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman and briefly to some others. Gadot shines enough in her limited role to make us curious for her stand alone pic. Then there’s Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg), who serves as our main antagonist. Eisenberg, who’s shined himself in certain roles, doesn’t here. His overacting and strange mannerisms (along with some doozies of dialogue) make him the weakest link here. Other supporting players from Man of Steel are back, including Laurence Fishburne as Perry White and Diane Lane as Clark’s beloved mama. Amy Adams’ Lois Lane is back as well and she’s grown better into her part the second time around. Jeremy Irons debuts as Batman butler Alfred. He doesn’t get much screen time and certainly won’t make you forget Michael Caine.
Henry Cavill continues his serviceable service as Superman. The best surprise is Affleck, who entered the unenviable position of following Christian Bale. He does a fine job as the beleaguered Wayne wrestling with his own demons (his parents murder is shown… again) and his distrust of the God like hero from Metropolis. I’m happy to report Affleck looks good in the Bat Suit and the screenplay even explains that lower register voice when he dons it.
BvS has a LOT of ground to cover between its action set pieces. The danger for this to feel fragmented and unfocused occasionally manifests itself, but it feels more united than it really has any right to. The main villain is a disappointment. Some of the special effects look suspect. Most look fantastic. Here we have a grim comic book tale that generally accomplishes its mission of being fairly decent dark entertainment. It also appears primed to achieve its studio’s mission statement: the birth of a franchise and keeping these icons flying on.
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