There’s a movie opening in limited release this weekend being a touted as a breezy and pleasant romance featuring two young professionals on their first date in 1989. It’s called SouthsidewithYou and you may have heard of the subjects that the date covers. Their names are Barack and Michelle Obama.
The pic comes from writer/director Richard Tanne and was made for a reportedly tiny $1.5 million. Unknown Parker Sawyers plays young Barack with Tika Sumpter (best known for playing Kevin Hart’s love interest in the RideAlong flicks) as Michelle. Southside premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year to positive notices and it currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While the reviews are just fine, they’re likely not strong enough to garner serious Oscar attention. Sumpter is being singled out for her work, but it would be pretty surprising to see her vault into the Best Actress conversation. Perhaps Tanne is an outside contender for Original Screenplay, though it’s probably a long shot.
SPOILER ALERT: if you want to avoid knowing what happened with this couple after their first date, it’s my hope you’ve literally been living under a rock for about 12 years.
***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.9 million. That would leave it at #11 this weekend based on my projections.
****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.
The 2016 summer movie season comes to a close this weekend and it does so in a manner in which most late Augusts do… with a whimper. There are three newbies debuting. None are expected to create major waves. They are: Jason Statham action sequel Mechanic: Resurrection, Sam Raimi produced horror pic Don’t Breathe, and Robert Duran boxing biopic Hands of Stone with Edgar Ramirez and Robert De Niro. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:
I don’t have any of the newcomers making double digits out of the gate. I will note that my blog readers are strenuously disagreeing on that point with Don’t Breathe, it seems. A whopping 85% believe my prediction is Too Low with 11% saying Just About Right and just 4% saying Too High. Truth be told, horror movies are tough to predict (Lights Out opened considerably beyond my estimate just a month ago). My projection for Don’t Breathe takes into account the late August release and a similar comparison with You’re Next (another critically acclaimed genre title released in the same weekend three summers back). Still, it appears this might be the trendy pick to be #1 in the final summer frame.
As for Mechanic: Resurrection, it’s a pretty even split with 40% saying my forecast is Just About Right and 30% each believing it’s Too High and Too Low. With Hands of Stone, 44% each think I’m either Just About Right or Too Low with 12% saying Too High.
So what will be #1? It looks to me as if Suicide Squad has a real shot at a four-peat if none of the debuting pictures reach past $10M. When it comes to other holdovers in their second weekends, I expect Kubo and the Two Strings will have a smaller percentage drop-off than War Dogs while Sausage Party in weekend #3 may drop at about 50%. It should create an extremely close race between them.
As for Ben-Hur and its dismal weekend opening (more on that below), its drop may not be as massive as some may think (it did get an A- Cinemascore), but over 50% is quite probable. It may battle with Pete’s Dragon and Hands of Stone and Bad Moms for similar grosses.
Add all that activity up and I’ll predict a Top Ten for this final blowout (aka mild fade out) of summer ’16:
1. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
2. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Mechanic: Resurrection
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
4. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
6. War Dogs
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)
7. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 42%)
8. Bad Moms
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 32%)
9. Ben-Hur
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jason Bourne
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (August 19-21)
Suicide Squad remained atop the charts for the third weekend in a row, grossing $20.8 million (slightly ahead of my $19.8M estimate) for a total of $262M. As mentioned above, the DC Comics pic has a nice shot at a fourth weekend at #1 (unless I’m wrong about Don’t Breathe… which many believe I am).
Sausage Party held in second place in weekend 2 with $15.4 million (I predicted a bit higher with $16.7M) for a pleasing 10 day total of $65M. Whether or not it reaches $100M is still in question, but this is a fine performance considering its $30M budget.
The Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs had the highest debut of the newbies with a respectable third place showing. It grossed $14.6 million, a bit above my $13.4M projection. I expect it lose almost half its audience in its sophomore frame as audiences didn’t seem too impressed with a B Cinemascore grade.
Kubo and the Two Strings garnered strong reviews, but had the weakest opening yet in fourth place for animation studio Laika with $12.6 million (under my generous $17M forecast). It could be that family audiences have simply had their fair share of pics to enjoy this season.
Speaking of underwhelming family entertainment, Disney’s Pete’s Dragon continued its unimpressive run with $11.3 million for fifth place (I predicted $12.3M). The total stands at $42M.
Now… to Ben-Hur. And, boy, is this an enormous flop for Paramount. The umpteenth remake (most notably of the 1959 Charlton Heston Best Picture winner) of the Biblical epic bombed with $11.2 million. I was kinder with a $16.3M prediction. With a reported $100 million budget, this stands as one of the largest flops of the year. Not even Morgan Freeman’s dreadlocks could save it.
Finally, outside of the top ten, the critically lauded Western thriller Hell or High Water expanded to 472 screens and had the highest per screen average of any film. It grossed $2.6 million and is expected to roll out even wider this weekend.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
It’s been nearly five years since comedic legend Eddie Murphy has appeared on the silver screen and the majority of his last few features have been underwhelming family box office duds. ImagineThat, anyone? AThousandWords?
Mr. Murphy goes for a change of pace this fall with the low-budget drama Mr. Church, opening September 16. Set in the 1970s, it stars Britt Robertson as a young girl who meets the title character (Murphy) and he finds ways to positively impact her life. Bruce Beresford, who made 1989’s Best Picture winner DrivingMissDaisy, directs.
You may recall that a decade ago, Murphy received accolades for another serious turn in Dreamgirls. That picture vaulted him as the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars, but he came up empty-handed when Alan Arkin took the prize for LittleMissSunshine.
Church screened at the TriBeca Film Festival this past spring. Early reviews are not encouraging as it stands at just 14% on Rotten Tomatoes. So why am I even bringing this title up for Oscar Watch? Even the negative notices praised the work of its star (effusively in some cases) and there could still be some lingering regret from Academy voters for not recognizing him in 2006. It’s likely that this film will come and go too fast to pick up traction for Murphy to get a Best Actor nod. Yet it’s not outside of the realm of possibility.
As the 2016 summer movie season winds down – it’s time to start thinking of the leaves changing, football (both real and fantasy), and yes – the fall slate of movies heading our way from September to December!
By most accounts, it has been a rather ho-hum summer at the multiplexes. Let’s hope the autumn frame picks things up a little. A few things are certain: the pictures being released in the final third of this calendar year will almost surely make up the bulk of Oscar-bait material. There has been very little that has counted as that in the first eight months. We have plenty of contenders and some of them are in this here list.
I decided to pick out my personal 16 most anticipated titles of what’s coming to us. This is also an exciting time of the year as my “Oscar Watch” posts are certain to increase as the major film festivals (starting with Toronto and Venice in a matter of weeks) begin to showcase some of the Academy hopefuls.
Here are 16 for ’16 titles that have piqued my interest for the rest of the year:
The Accountant
Release Date: October 14
Ben Affleck sheds the Bat-suit for this thriller from Warrior director Gavin O’Connor. Batfleck plays a math savant mixed up in some secret government activity and the stellar supporting casts includes Anna Kendrick and J.K. Simmons.
Allied
Release Date: November 23
Robert Zemeckis directs what sounds like an old-fashioned romantic thriller. It’s set in the WWII era in Casablanca and is headlined by Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard.
Arrival
Release Date: November 11
Prisoners and Sicario director Denis Villenueve delves into sci-fi territory with this alien tale featuring Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, and Forest Whitaker.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Release Date: November 11
Acclaimed director Ang Lee has won two Oscars and his latest is a war drama based on a bestseller. Expect this to garner Oscar buzz. The cast includes newcomer Joe Alwyn in the title role, as well as Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Chris Tucker, and Vin Diesel.
Doctor Strange
Release Date: November 4
After a somewhat middling 2015 with the Avengers sequel and Ant-Man, the Marvel Cinematic Universe got back on track with this summer’s Captain America: Civil War. Let’s see if the introduction of Benedict Cumberbatch’s title character continues the momentum. Scott Derrickson directs with a supporting cast including Rachel McAdams, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Tilda Swinton.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Release Date: November 18
Will audiences flock to the return of Harry Potter world sans Harry Potter? It’s a pretty safe bet as J.K. Rowling’s novel comes to life in this fantasy starring Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne.
The Founder
Release Date: December 16
Michael Keaton has been on a roll lately (both 2014’s Birdman and 2015’s Spotlight won Best Picture). Expect this biopic, in which he plays McDonald’s founder Ray Croc, to also order up Academy Awards talk. John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directs.
The Girl on the Train
Release Date: October 7
This mystery thriller from The Help director Tate Taylor should give star Emily Blunt an Oscar-bait type role, just a year after her acclaimed turn in Sicario. Based on a bestselling novel, it’s no accident that its release date is the same as Gone Girl from two two years ago.
La La Land
Release Date: December 2
Damien Chazelle made a major splash two years ago with his Oscar nominated Whiplash. His follow-up is a musical featuring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and J.K. Simmons. It’s screening at the Venice Film Festival in a couple of weeks in hopes of beginning its Academy talk.
The Magnificent Seven
Release Date: September 23
Denzel Washington reunites with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua in this Western remake that also features red-hot Chris Pratt and Ethan Hawke.
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Release Date: September 30
He’s been hit or miss lately, but anything from the mind of Tim Burton immediately inspires hope. The dark fantasy, based on a bestseller and starring Eva Green, Asa Butterfield, Judi Dench, and Samuel L. Jackson, looks right up his alley.
Passengers
Release Date: December 21
This space thriller from The Imitation Game maker Morten Tyldum unites the box office powers of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. Let’s get a trailer for this already!
**No trailer at press time
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Release Date: December 16
You may have heard of it. Gareth Edwards, who made the good Godzilla movie of the last few years, directs the latest Disney epic set in a galaxy far, far away. The events here take place between the events of Episodes III and IV with a plot to steal plans for the iconic Death Star. Felicity Jones, Forest Whitaker, and Diego Luna join this fabled cinematic universe… and James Earl Jones returns (!!) to voice a certain famed villain.
Rules Don’t Apply
Release Date: November 23
It’s been nearly 16 years since Warren Beatty appeared on the silver screen and 18 years since he’s directed. He’s back with this comedic drama in which he plays billionaire Howard Hughes. The supporting casts includes his wife Annette Bening, Lily Collins, Alden Ehrenreich (soon to be young Han Solo), Matthew Broderick, and Alec Baldwin.
Silence
Release Date: Undetermined (probably December)
No firm release date has been set for Martin Scorsese’s latest – a historical drama set in Japan. Yet it’s likely to earn a 2016 release for Oscar consideration. Andrew Garfield, Liam Neeson, and Adam Driver star.
*No trailer at press time
Sully
Release Date: September 9
Coming off the biggest hit of his incredible career American Sniper, Clint Eastwood directs the real-life tale of the “Miracle on the Hudson” with Tom Hanks in the title role. Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney costar.
And there you have it! There’s plenty of other intriguing films coming our way in these next four months and readers of this blog know that I’ll be reviewing, box office predicting, and evaluating the Oscar chances on them! Stay tuned…
Joel and Ethan Coen seem to be struggling with ambivalence to the film industry in their latest, Hail, Caesar! It takes place in the early 1950s when the studios had their own struggles with the impending explosion of television threatening their existence. Capitol Pictures production head Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) spends his days and nights putting out fires with damaged actors, directors, and other assorted players. He has an offer on the table for a nice everyday job with Lockheed and his decision whether to stay or go is treated (quite literally) as one of Biblical proportions.
The film’s title is one shared with a Roman epic meant to be Capitol’s blockbuster of the year. It stars Baird Whitlock and he’s played by George Clooney in a welcome continuation of the actor playing extraordinarily dumb guys in the Coen universe. These directors either realized years ago that Clooney excels in these roles or have secret contempt for him. It’s probably the former. Baird is kidnapped by a group of gentlemen who are either underpaid and frustrated screenwriters, Communist sympathizers, or both. His return to the set means a handsome ransom paid by Capitol.
That is just one of many issues that Mannix deals with during his workday. They include the synchronized swimming Esther Williams type starlet (Scarlett Johansson) whose squeaky clean image is polar opposite from the real story. And the Western crooning leading man (Alden Ehrenreich) clumsily trying his hand at serious drama.
Much of this simply appears to be an excuse for the brothers from Minnesota to play around with genres popular in the era. Channing Tatum pops up as a tap dancing sailor making an energetic and silly musical. The works of the aforementioned movie stars lets the Coens give us scenes from Westerns, Bible epics, and aquamusicals. Fans of the period will almost certainly appreciate it all more than those unfamiliar.
Certain performances stand out. Some of the more recognizable faces (Johansson, Jonah Hill as a studio problem fixer) are given little material. Lesser known Ehrenreich is quite a find and he shares a very funny sequence with an exasperated director played by Ralph Fiennes. Tilda Swinton is on point in a dual role as haughty twin gossip columnists.
The overall theme is of Mannix’s wondering if his crazy job is inconsequential. You get the feeling from time to time if it’s the Coens thinking that themselves. We saw it in 2008’s superior BurnAfterReading, a picture that concluded with a conversation about its own unnecessary existence. That also seemed to serve as a statement about the spy thrillers it was sending up. Here the message is a little murkier and quite a bit less humorous. Joel and Ethan Coen have certainly earned the right to do whatever they want and Hail, Caesar! stillhas plentyofmomentsthatreminduswhythey’resuchcinematictreasures. TheambivalencethatImentionedearlierthatpermeatestheir exercise here? We feel it a bit as well, however.
***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.2 million.
Centering on the relationship between real-life boxing legend Roberto Duran and his trainer Ray Arcel, Venezuelan filmmaker Jonathan Jakubowicz brings us Hands of Stone next weekend. Edgar Ramirez plays the fighter with Robert De Niro as his corner man. Costars include Usher (playing Sugar Ray Leonard), Ana de Armas, Ellen Barkin, Ruben Blades, and John Turturro.
The pic premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to a mixed reaction after sitting on the shelf for over two years (not a good sign). Movies about the sweet science have been prevalent this decade with hits like 2010’s The Fighter and last year’s Creed. They had the benefit of critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. There was last summer’s Southpaw with Jake Gyllenhaal, which managed to do just OK with a $52 million overall gross.
Hands of Stone arrives in the dog days of August, where new titles typically fight to reach double digits. The Weinstein Company is distributing and they’re rumored to be making a push for De Niro in the Supporting Actor Academy race. They will probably not be successful like Sylvester Stallone was for Creed. And this will likely not pack much of a punch in the box office ring.
Hands of Stone opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:
****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.
Next weekend, the makers of the Evil Dead reboot are back with Don’t Breathe, a horror pic that is garnering early positive reviews. Fede Alvarez directs with Sam Raimi producing in this tale of some teenagers robbing a blind man’s home. That man (played by veteran character actor Stephen Lang) turns out to be quite a force to be reckoned with. Jane Levy and Dylan Minnette costar.
The film premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival this past spring to good notices. It currently stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s been a solid summer for horror – as The Conjuring 2 and Lights Out both performed well (especially the latter considering its tiny budget). Lights benefited from a simple concept and critical acclaim, yet I’m not sure that will be repeated here. The late August release date has not been kind to the genre over the past few years. Last summer’s Sinister 2 managed just $10.5 million and that was a sequel to a well-regarded predecessor. The best comparison might be 2013’s You’re Next, another well-reviewed title that only grossed $7 million for its start. I’ll say this manages to top that, but not by too much.
I’ll predict Don’t Breathe tops that meager figure, but not by much at all.
Don’t Breathe opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:
Jason Statham starred in one of the biggest sequels of 2015 with Furious 7. He is highly unlikely to repeat himself this year as Mechanic: Resurrection hits screens next weekend. This is a follow-up to 2011’s The Mechanic, a remake of a 1972 Charles Bronson vehicle that performed fairly modestly with an $11.4 million opening and $29.1 million overall domestic gross. Frankly, I’m not really sure why this warrants a sequel.
The supporting cast includes Jessica Alba, Tommy Lee Jones, and Michelle Yeoh with Dennis Gansel taking over directorial duties from Simon West. While the past five years has given its star more exposure with hits like the aforementioned seventh Furious entry and Spy, I doubt that will be enough for Resurrection to rise above what its predecessor even earned. Heck, this isn’t even the most high-profile sequel ending in the word “Resurrection” (as Ripley and Winona Ryder could tell you).
In this same late August weekend last year, similar genre type pic Hitman: Agent 47 made $8.3 million. That actually seems about right for this and I’ll predict it just tops that unimpressive number.
Mechanic: Resurrection opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
A year after Woody Allen felt London calling in 2005’s MatchPoint instead of his usual New York stories, he returned to the British city a year later in Scoop. It isn’t a picture talked about too much in his extensive catalogue and ten years later, I’ve learned there’s pretty good reason for it.
The aforementioned Point was a pivotal comeback work for Woody and also provided a role for Scarlett Johansson that she was perfect for. Here she’s rather miscast as mousy journalism student Sondra on London holiday. When she attends a magic show by Sid or “The Great Splendini” (Allen), she’s called onstage for the whole disappear in the box act. When she gets in, she’s greeted by the spirit of a recently killed famous journalist (Ian McShane). He has information on London’s famed Tarot Card Killer that he believes to be hunky aristocrat and aspiring politician Peter (Hugh Jackman). Naturally, Sondra falls for him as she’s investigating the case along with Sid as the “did he or didn’t he?” mystery plays itself out.
Woody dabbling in murder mystery hijinks is nothing new. He did it seriously in 1989’s terrific CrimesandMisdemeanors and with far more laughs in 1993’s ManhattanMurderMystery. When we talk of Mr. Allen’s extensive filmography, there’s his dramatic work and his hilarious stuff. Scoop is one that wants to be on the hilarious side, but is too slight and inconsequential to succeed. Anything with Allen dropping one-liners is going to have its bright spots and they exist here. The best dialogue belongs to him. It does move along briskly, too. And his career long obsession with death is intact here. Yet, as mentioned, Johansson is a little out of her element and Jackman has little to do other than veer between kinda charming and maybe sinister. It’s not bad (the director rarely does bad), but it is forgettable.
Ten years after Scoop, it’s simple to see why it’s been lost in the shuffle. And I say that with all due respect.
As the summer movie season beings to close out, three new titles open Friday and they could all experience similar grosses. They are the big-budget Ben-Hur remake, animated fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, and Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each here:
The difference in predictions between the trio of newcomers is a scant $3.6 million. I have Kubo edging out the others with Ben-Hur closely behind and War Dogs a bit further down.
As for where my loyal blog readers see my predictions: 53% currently feel my Kubo estimate is Just About Right with 30% saying Too High and 17% saying Too Low. 43% say Just About Right on Ben-Hur with 30% saying Too High and 27% saying Too Low. Those numbers for Hur show the unpredictability as to what it might accomplish or not accomplish. As for War Dogs, a whopping 61% think I’m Too Low with 39% saying Just About Right. A whole ZERO percent think I’m Too High on it.
Suicide Squad experienced a hefty decline in its sophomore frame. It shouldn’t be quite as big in its third weekend, but I still estimate it losing in the mid-50s. That should still keep at #1, unless one of the newcomers tops my forecast (which is certainly possible).
The story of this past weekend was the huge opening of Sausage Party (more on that below). I have it losing just over half its audience in weekend #2. Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, which experienced a disappointing debut. Its “A” Cinemascore grade could mean a fairly soft decline, unless Kubo takes a nice portion of its family audience away (also possible). If it drops 40% or more, that would put Pete and his green friend in sixth place.
Bottom line: this is one unpredictable weekend where the grosses could be tightly bunched together. Here’s my top 6 predictions on how I believe it will play out:
Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. Ben-Hur
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
5. War Dogs
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
6. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
As expected, Suicide Squad dropped precipitously in its second weekend but managed to stay atop the box office rather easily with $43.5 million (a touch below my $45.7M prediction) for a total of $222 million. Its 67% dip isn’t quite as pronounced as Batman v Superman‘s 69%, but consider that the Caped Crusader/Man of Steel battle earned $33M more out of the gate than Harley Quinn and company.
The real fiesta was happening over at Columbia Pictures as Seth Rogen’s critically acclaimed raunchy animated Sausage Party produced a gross of $34.2 million. This was on the absolute highest end of expectations (as I totally underestimated it with $19.4M). Making its $30 million budget back in one weekend, expect a sequel to this and some other R rated ‘toons heading your way in the future.
Pete’s Dragon did not bring (or breathe, if you will) the kind of fire normally reserved for Disney live-action remakes. It opened in third with a muted $21.5 million (under my $29.8M estimate), despite solid reviews and its studio pedigree. Family audiences have had plenty to see this summer and the fact that this property was based on one of Disney’s lesser known properties clearly hurt.
Jason Bourne held nicely in weekend 3 with $13.8 million (ahead of my $11.4M forecast) for a total of $127M. Holding even better was Bad Moms in its third frame with $11.3 million (above my $9.3M prognosis) for a very good $71M.
Finally, Meryl Streep’s Florence Foster Jenkins debuted in 8th place with a quiet $6.6 million (I went a bit higher with $8.2M). Interestingly, that’s the exact same figure that Streep’s Ricki and the Flash opened with a year ago.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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