Month: November 2016

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 3rd Edition

Well – we’ve reached November, loyal blog readers and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m paring down the list of Oscar hopefuls in the eight major categories. Over the past two months, I’ve listed 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the Directing, Acting, and Screenplay races. Today, it gets whittled down to 20 in BP and 10 in the others. One development of note this week: it appears Dev Patel will be competing in Supporting Actor for Lion instead of Lead. That enters him in the derby for that race, which looks more unpredictable than any other at this moment.

There are still a number of Oscar hopefuls left to screen: Silence, Fences, Live by Night, Rules Don’t Apply, Passengers, The Founder, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane, Gold among them. In other words, look for shifts in placement as these movies start receiving reviews and buzz in the near future.

Here’s how I have the respective competitions shaping up in this early November period:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Fences (PR: 3)

4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 5)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Arrival (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

14. Live by Night (PR: 15)

15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 24)

16. Sully (PR: 14)

17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

18. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 16)

19. Allied (PR: 20)

20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals, Miss Sloane, Passengers, Gold, 13th

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

4. Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mike Mills (20th Century Women), Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Clint Eastwood (Sully)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)

7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 13)

10. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Dev Patel (Lion – moved to Supporting), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Miles Teller (Bleed for This)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: Not Ranked; considered to be Lead)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)

7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)

10. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Sunny Pawar (Lion), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Janelle Monae (Moonlight), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 3)

2. La La Land (PR: 1)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

4. Loving (PR: 5)

5. Jackie (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8. The Lobster (PR: 9)

9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Toni Erdmann, Allied, Rules Don’t Apply, Gold, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

8. Live by Night (PR: 8)

9. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)

10. Certain Women (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Sully, Elle, Indignation, The Jungle Book, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And that shall do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Shut In Box Office Prediction

Naomi Watts makes a return to a genre that served her well years ago when Shut In opens next weekend. The horror/thriller places the actress stranded in her home during a blizzard with some potentially unwelcome visitors. Other cast members include Oliver Platt, Charlie Heaton, and Jacob Tremblay (who made waves last year as the child actor in the acclaimed Room).

Of course, the aforementioned title I was referring to with Watts is 2002’s The Ring, which turned into a smash hit. Don’t look for history to repeat itself here. Shut In has had a muted marketing campaign and it’s been pushed back by its distributor several times (it was originally slated to open in February).

Add all that up and I see a pretty bad debut, even factoring in that horror has had a solid 2016. I believe a mid single digits roll out is where Shut In will end up.

Shut In opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Arrival prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

For my Almost Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

Almost Christmas Box Office Prediction

Next weekend comes the first Christmas themed title as Almost Christmas presents itself in theaters. The pic comes from director David E. Talbert, maker of 2008’s First Sunday and 2013’s Baggage Claim. The comedic drama focuses on a dysfunctional holiday family gathering with a cast that includes Kimberly Elise, Mo’Nique, Gabrielle Union, Danny Glover, Jessie Usher, Danny Glover, Nicole Ari Parker, Omar Epps, John Michael Higgins, and Romany Malco.

Christmas should benefit from both its release date and the fact that it could attract a sizable African American audience. One decent comp would be 2007’s This Christmas, which debuted to $17.9 million. A more unlikely comp would be 2013’s The Best Man Holiday, which shocked the industry with an opening of over $30M.

I’ll say Almost Christmas manages a merry start in the high teens range.

Almost Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million

For my Arrival prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

For my Shut In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

Arrival Box Office Prediction

Denis Villeneueve’s science fiction drama and potential Oscar contender Arrival lands in theaters next weekend, looking for a healthy run throughout the awards season. Amy Adams headlines a cast that includes Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker, and Michael Stuhlbarg. Villeneueve has been on a roll (especially critically) in recent years with well-regarded titles such as Prisoners and last year’s Sicario.

With a relatively modest $50 million reported budget, Arrival debuted at the Venice Film Festival to many raves and it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could find itself in the mix at the Academy Awards for Best Picture, Director, and Actress with Ms. Adams.

What could hinder Arrival from a huge debut is a relative lack of star power. While Adams and Renner are certainly recognizable names, they don’t carry the box office potency of Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in Gravity ($55 million opening  in 2013), Matthew McConaughey and director Christopher Nolan in Interstellar ($47 million in 2014), and Matt Damon and director Ridley Scott in The Martian ($54 million last autumn). Those similar genre pics premiered in a realm that looks to be unrealistic for this.

Arrival could manage to top $30 million out of the gate, but a relatively low screen count of 2200 screens should prevent that. I’ll say a low to mid 20s debut is more probable as it looks to play well in subsequent weekends based on buzz.

Arrival opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Almost Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

For my Shut In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/