Month: June 2015

Box Office Predictions: June 19-21

Another record could be broken for the second weekend in a row as Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out debuts this Friday. It will take on the sophomore frame of Jurassic World, which exceeded all expectations this past weekend – to say the least (more on that below). You can read my detailed Inside Out prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/12/inside-out-box-office-prediction/

If Inside Out holds to my prediction, it will provide Pixar with its third highest and largest non-sequel debut in its existence. However, that will probably not be enough to get it to the #1 spot considering what Jurassic will make even it drops close to 60%. That means Inside could set the record for highest non #1 opening in domestic history, which is currently held by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow with $68.7 million.

The only other newbie this weekend is the urban comedic drama Dope, which I expect to open outside the top five with $4.6 million (I didn’t do an individual post on it).

**Wednesday June 17 bloggers update: I have upgraded my Dope estimate after its announced 2000 screen rollout which is higher than I expected. New prediction is $7.7 million.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:

1. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $88.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)

2. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $71.4 million

3. Spy

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 42%

4. Dope

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 12-14)

In a word… WOW! Jurassic World. No one really saw this coming as the dino reboot accomplished the #1 domestic box office opening… not of the year, but of all time! Its gross of $208.8 million edged out three year record holder The Avengers, which made $207.4M. I predicted a meager $123.5M debut for Jurassic and, was I way off or what?!?!?! So was everyone else. Clearly the nostalgia factor stemming from the 1993 original and the fact that every kid in America wanted to see it (and Chris Pratt and mostly positive reviews) turned this into an event experience. This puts Jurassic World in a position to be the summer’s biggest hit, something everyone assumed Avengers: Age of Ultron would have little trouble achieving. Amazing.

The dinosaur love contributed to pretty much everything else in the top five dropping more than I anticipated. Spy was second with $15.6 million (I said $19.7M) and its two weeks total is at $56.5M. The Melissa McCarthy comedy may just clear $100M when all is said and done.

San Andreas was third with $10.8 million compared to my $12.6M projection and its total is at $119.1M. Insidious: Chapter 3 made $7.3 million in weekend #2 (under my $8.9M estimate) and it’s made $37.3M. Pitch Perfect 2 was fifth with $6.3 million (for a $171.1M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. My #5 prediction Entourage was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $5.7M prediction and its two weeks total is at a weak $25.8M.

And that’s all for now! Until next time…

Get Hard Movie Review

Get Hard is a limp premise that wastes the pairing of two talented stars of the genre in a sea of dated jokes. In this film’s world, gay and racial humor is displayed in full force and the writers seem to believe it’s edgy just because it exists on the page and its high profile performers are saying the lines. It doesn’t connect and the result is a pic that will soon be easily forgotten on both Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart’s resumes.

James King (Ferrell) is a hedge fund manager who’s engaged to his boss’s (Craig T. Nelson) materialistic and cliched money grubbing daughter (Alison Brie). Darnell (Hart) runs the car wash business that services King’s building. When King is wrongfully convicted of embezzlement, he enlists Darnell to help him cope with his upcoming ten year stint at San Quentin. You see, King assumes Darnell has done hard time because… well, he’s black and he believes statistically there’s a likelihood of it. When Darnell is promised $30,000 to assist with King’s request, he is perfectly OK with misleading him.

This sets up elaborate scenes in which Darnell simulates prison riots and instructs King on how to stand up for himself. Mostly it involves advice on how not to get raped in the joint. Lots and lots of jokes about it, which are all stale. The filmmakers even go as far as putting King in a situation where he must learn to, um, service a man should he have to. It’s more uncomfortable than funny. Like the entire idea of this venture.

Get Hard is not anywhere close to as dangerous as it wants to be. It must waste some of its running time investigating who really is behind the crimes King is charged with and that part is dull. The rest of the way is gay joke, racial joke, gay joke, racial joke. Mixed in occasionally is tired commentary on how corporate America contains the real bad guys, a thread also common in much more rewarding Ferrell fare like The Other Guys and The Campaign. Even what purports to be the pic’s comedic highlights, like Ferrell accidentally getting injured by a weapon, only reminded me of when he did it better like in Old School. And let’s face it – how many times have we already seen Will use his naked body as a punchline? It’s here too! The main side effect of taking the journey to Get Hard in this case is absence of laughter.

*1/2 (out of four)

Inside Out Box Office Prediction

Pixar and Disney are back in the summer mix with Inside Out, opening Friday. The hit studio surprisingly sat the summer of 2o14 out and it was the first time Pixar hadn’t had a summer entry since 2005. Inside Out comes from Pete Docter, who made the acclaimed and Oscar nominated Up in 2009. The pic features the voices of Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling and Lewis Black. While critical kudos are widely expected for these animated offerings, Out’s reaction has been remarkable with its 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It could certainly contend for a Best Picture nod come Academy time next year.

The studio has had consistent openings for its features. Eight of the fourteen Pixar movies have debuted with numbers between $60 and $70 million. Only their sequels have earned higher. It’s easy to see Inside Out falling right in line with the expectations. I’ll say it manages to take in just over $70M, which would earn it the distinction of best Pixar non sequel premiere and third best overall.

Inside Out opening weekend prediction: $71.4 million

The Lost World: Jurassic Park – A Look Back

On this Throwback Thursday and on the evening of the debut of the franchise reboot Jurassic World, it would be obvious to pontificate about the original Jurassic Park. It opened 22 years ago today and is widely and deservedly considered a modern day classic. I, however, chose to go in a different direction and talk about The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which stood as one of the most breathlessly awaited sequels ever in the summer of 1997. While the dino sequel certainly has its share of moments, impressive visuals and well constructed action sequences – the thrill, as the late B.B. King put it, is gone – mostly.

The Lost World picks up four years after the events of the original and stars Sam Neill and Laura Dern are nowhere to be found (they would come out of extinction for the third installment). Instead Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum), the wise cracking comic relief from part one is the headliner. He’s still understandably shaken up from the events that transpired on Isla Nublar and things don’t improve when John Hammond (Richard Attenborough) informs him that there was always a second island where the replicated dinosaurs are developed. To add insult to injury, Ian’s girlfriend Sarah (Julianne Moore), a paleontologist, is already on the island documenting them. It’s all part of Hammond’s way of protecting his money grubbing family from turning the island into a theme park, which he knows darn well didn’t work out so hot four years ago.

This all leads to Malcolm going after Sarah, along with his young daughter and an eco activist videographer (Vince Vaughn, fresh off Swingers). As you might expect, it’s not a simple mission and the new island finds plenty of angry dinosaurs while Malcolm and company also must contend with a separate team led by Hammond’s greedy nephew and a hunter (Pete Postlethwaite) whose mission is to bag a T. rex.

With Steven Spielberg returning behind the camera, it’s no surprise that there are cleverly directed action sequences. The most thrilling involves a trailer and slowly breaking glass. Problem is, while the first Jurassic was so influential, World often feels like leftovers. For moviegoers too young to remember the release of Park in 1993, there’s really no way to properly explain just how awe struck it left audiences. We had never seen visuals like it and hearing that T. Rex growling loudly in our eardrums was exhilarating. When that film’s characters gasped at the creatures the first time they saw them, so did we. The Lost World has its fun moments, but the fresh factor is eliminated. Taking Ian Malcolm from an effective supporting player to hero doesn’t always work and his wise cracks might be more plentiful but they’re twice as corny. The other human characters contribute little. Don’t get me wrong – the dinosaurs look friggin sweet and there’s more of them but a better viewing experience it does not make.

By the time we arrive at the climax set in San Diego, the sight of T. Rex terrorizing the city seems like little more than Spielberg’s chance to make a short Godzilla tribute. We see a relic of the past terrorize the city, including a Blockbuster Video, another relic from the past. As Jurassic World is about to premiere, it will be the 1993 version we have in our hearts and minds for comparisons sake. The quality of this sequel is justified as a mixed bag, which explains it having been mostly lost in the world of conversation this week.

Box Office Predictions: June 12-14

Just like they did 22 summers ago, the dinosaurs shall rule the box office this weekend as Jurassic World should easily dominate. The fourth entry in the franchise looks to score the third best opening weekend of 2015 (following Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/05/jurassic-world-box-office-prediction/

With Jurassic being the only new film in release, that leaves holdovers. Current champ Spy should have the smallest decline while Insidious: Chapter 3 is likely to suffer the largest, as horror pics usually do.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $123.5 million

2. Spy

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

3. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Insidious: Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Entourage

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 45%)

Box Office Results (June 5-7)

As expected, the critically acclaimed Melissa McCarthy comedy Spy debuted at #1. However, its $29 million take did not match the openings of her 2013 efforts Identity Thief or The Heat and didn’t come close to my $42.1M prediction. This is still a solid opening for McCarthy and it should suffer smallish declines in coming weekends.

San Andreas dropped to second with $25.8 million, just above my $24.3M projection. The hit disaster thriller has amassed $98.4M in its two weeks of release.

Insidious: Chapter 3 couldn’t come close to what part 2 accomplished, but it still managed a commendable $22.6 million, under my $26M estimate. As mentioned above, look for it to fade fast, however.

The film version of HBO’s Entourage had a muted opening with $10.2 million, just below my $11.2M prediction. The five-day gross of $17.6 million (it opened on Wednesday) did just manage to outpace my $16.5M projection.

I incorrectly had Pitch Perfect 2 at fifth with an estimate of $8.4 million, but it was sixth with my $7.5M (its total stands at $160.8M). Mad Max: Fury Road ended up taking the five spot with $7.8 million to bring its cume to $130.6M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Oscar Watch – Mad Max: Fury Road

A month ago it may have seemed a far fetched notion, but a current summer blockbuster begs the question – could Mad Max: Fury Road score a Best Picture nomination come Oscar time? It’s possible. George Miller’s reboot and his fourth directorial effort in the franchise (some 30 years after the last one) has received high critical acclaim and fine box office numbers. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 98% and that’s certainly greater than some other Academy nominated flicks will receive.

The solid argument could be made that it’s precisely movies like Fury Road that caused the Academy to expand its number of Picture nominees in 2009 to anywhere from five to ten. It happened immediately after the enormously grossing and critically lauded Dark Knight failed to make the five picture cut the year prior. Obviously much will depend on what follows in the next six and a half months but don’t count out Max for potential Oscar attention. Same goes for its well regarded auteur Miller.

Even if it doesn’t score a nomination for the top category, it could show up elsewhere. While stars Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron are unlikely to find themselves in the acting mix, don’t be surprised if it lands nominations in the following down ticket races: Production Design, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects.

Jurassic World Box Office Prediction

Nearly 22 years to the day after Steven Spielberg’s dino adventure Jurassic Park invaded theaters in the summer of 1993, Colin Trevorrow’s reboot Jurassic World should rule the box office when it opens Friday. It’s the fourth entry in the franchise, but the first in fourteen years and there’s been proper time for nostalgia to increase, while still allowing young viewers to want to flock and see the cool prehistoric creatures wreaking havoc. Chris Pratt, who headlined 2014’s largest summer blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy, stars with Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio supporting.

When the original Jurassic opened, its $47 million opening weekend take marked the biggest domestic debut of all time. It now ranks 197th. Jurassic World looks to easily double and threaten to triple what came before it over two decades ago. The pic looks to have the third highest domestic debut weekend of 2015, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7.

As I see it, this should pretty easily top $100 million out of the gate. It is the only wide release next weekend as competitors steered clear. The question is – by how much? I look for Jurassic World to flirt with $125M but fall just a bit under it for a rock solid premiere.

Jurassic World opening weekend prediction: $123.5 million

Selma Movie Review

Like Spielberg’s Lincoln that preceded it two years prior, Ana DuVernay’s Selma sidesteps the idea of a biopic and rather focuses on a short but integral passage of time in its subject’s life. The focus is on Martin Luther King Jr. and the 1965 Voting Rights marches in Selma, Alabama. The film provides a history lesson that takes strides to not portray its central figure purely as a saint – nor does its perspective shy away from criticism of President Lyndon B. Johnson, while also acknowledging his achievements.

The film opens with King (David Oyelowo) and wife Coretta (Carmen Ejojo) in Norway circa 1964 to accept his Nobel Peace Prize. They speak of an alternative lifestyle in the opening scene that doesn’t involve the constant threat of death and his constant search for equal rights and justice. The couple seems to know that this is only talk and it is not what he’s destined for. Back home, the recent signing of the Civil Rights Act by President Johnson (Tom Wilkinson) has done little in the South to allow African Americans the right to vote. And this sets off a decision by King to organize a march in Selma that is met with Johnson’s objections, though not near to the level of Alabama Governor George Wallace (Tim Roth).

Director DuVernay and screenwriter Paul Webb do not shy away from showing us the brutality that took place in this era in the South. We also witness the goodness of people of many faiths and races who come to lend their support to Dr. King in his efforts. It is not one march on Selma – it’s three. The first ends in violent resistance from the police. The second time it’s halted is due to a more surprising manner of resistance. The third is history. The filmmakers also tackle the Kings marital status, including Dr. King’s infidelities.

His political skills are shown as well and they are often as powerful as his oratory abilities. The scenes with King and LBJ have been challenged by some for inaccuracy, but this is not a documentary and I won’t judge it as such. My only drawback to these sequences are Wilkinson, a fine actor that’s simply not the right choice for the 36th POTUS.

The flaws don’t stop there. The complex relationship between King and Malcolm X is touched upon so briefly that it begs for further fleshing out. Adding familiar faces like Martin Sheen and Cuba Gooding Jr. for cameos threaten to take you out of the story than involve you more.

Where it delivers is its willingness to tell this important story as a real one. A human one. King is a great man, but is written as experiencing the doubts and insecurities that he must have had. Oyelowo nails the role and he excels at embodying MLK’s mannerisms and spirit.

Selma tells the story of imperfect men fighting for a more perfect union. The film is imperfect as well but it’s worthy of its important subject matter that might have occurred a half century ago, but still resonates on many levels today.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: June 5-7

As the June box office session begins, we have three new pictures opening in the marketplace: the Melissa McCarthy action comedy Spy, horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 3 and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/30/spy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/insidious-chapter-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/entourage-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spy (which has received rave reviews) should easily come out of the gate at #1. The battle for second could be fierce between Insidious and current champ San Andreas, which had a larger than anticipated premiere (more on that below). I expect the third Insidious to just make it to the #2 position. I have Entourage placing fourth with Pitch Perfect 2 rounding out the top five in its fourth weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Spy

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million

2. Insidious: Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $26 million

3. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Entourage

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million ($16.5 million predicted for its five-day gross)

5. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Dwayne Johnson’s disaster flick San Andreas had anything but a disastrous opening with a higher than expected $54.5 million, easily topping my $43.4M projection. The pic was pretty much critic proof and audiences responded with a solid A- Cinemascore grade to give its star yet another hit, not even two months after his participation in the massive Furious 7.

Holdovers dipped further from their Memorial Day grosses than I anticipated as Pitch Perfect 2 was second with $14.8 million (I said $18.5M). The high grossing sequel has amassed $147.5M so far.

The bad news continued for Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland, which has undeniably become one of the season’s early disappointments. It experienced a precipitous drop in its sophomore frame with $14.3 million for third place, below my generous $19.1M prediction. Its two week total is at $63M and it probably won’t reach the $100M mark.

Mad Max: Fury Road took fourth with $14.1 million, just below my $15M estimate for an impressive total three week tally of $116.4M. Avengers: Age of Ultron was fifth with $11.4 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The Marvel superhero juggernaut has made $427.5M at press time.

Cameron Crowe’s critically panned Aloha was DOA for a sixth place debut with just $9.6 million, well under my $18.2M projection. Audiences weren’t impressed with what they saw either with a lackluster B- Cinemascore grade. You can read my review of it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/aloha-movie-review/

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…