There’s a whole lot of talent involved with the Annie remake opening this Friday. Will Smith and Jay-Z are among the producers with Easy A and Friends with Benefits director Will Gluck behind the camera. Quevenzhane Wallis (who won critical acclaim for Beasts of the Southern Wild) plays the title role with Jamie Foxx, Cameron Diaz, Rose Byrne, and Bobby Cannavale rounding out the cast.
There’s a real question as to whether those big names will translate to big holiday box office though. Based loosely on the Broadway play and 1982 picture, the film trades its Depression era setting for modern day NYC. So far, reviews have been far from kind. There’s also the matter of serious family competition in the form of Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
Sony Pictures is hoping for a healthy debut to divert attention away from its considerable hacking scandal. It could be wishful thinking. I believe Annie won’t even reach $20 million out of the gate for a lackluster start.
Annie opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
The Hobbit isn’t the only trilogy coming to an end next weekend as Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opens Friday. Ben Stiller is back headlining a cast that includes Owen Wilson, Ricky Gervais, Dick Van Dyke, Steve Coogan, Rebel Wilson, and the late Robin Williams and Mickey Rooney. Shawn Levy returns to direct.
It’s been five years since the second installment of the franchise which debuted to a $54 million gross on its way to a $177M domestic gross. That sequel’s opening overshadowed the $30 million rollout of the 2006 original, but it ended up with a higher overall haul of $250M.
Competition is fierce as some youngsters may take in The Hobbit while others (particularly girls) may spend the weekend watching Annie. There’s another factor: many of the kids who were fans of the first two are now older teenagers and above whose interest has perhaps waned.
Add all that up and I’ll predict Secret of the Tomb sets a low bar for the franchise and takes it out on a rather low note. I believe it won’t manage even half of what the second picture opened at.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.
Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.
For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.
Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes generally follows the sequel playbook closely. It’s darker and more action packed. We get new human characters introduced that don’t come close to matching the interest we have in the apes. The saga of Caesar (Andy Serkis) and his struggle of loyalty to his species and the human race is what’s truly fascinating.
In 2011, Rise of the Planet of the Apes reinvigorated a series that had stumbled in 2001 with its original restart that was Tim Burton’s misguided effort. Rise was much better than anyone expected. The freshness of seeing a franchise reborn in a legitimately satisfactory manner has been replaced in its sequel with competency. That and amazing visual effects that improves upon its predecessor.
We begin ten years after the events of Rise and the human race has been decimated by deadly pandemic. A small group of survivors dwells in dystopian San Francisco and must access a dam to provide themselves a power source. The problem is that Caesar and his loyal ape followers have set up their home on the way to that dam. And based on the events that transpired years ago, most of the apes don’t exactly trust humans. And vice versa.
Included among the humans is Malcolm (Jason Clarke), who soon forms a bond with Caesar. Our main ape character has not forgotten that humans can be good people and it is a constant source of contention with Koba, Caesar’s second in command who has no use for them. Keri Russell plays Malcolm’s wife with Kodi Smit-McPhee as his son. Caesar has a wife now and two children of his own. The leader of the human pack is portrayed by Gary Oldman, solid as always with not a whole lot to do expect for an effective crying scene.
The last two Apes pictures have been very successful in realizing Caesar as a fully formed character and represents some of the finest CG work to date. Much of the credit, though, is due to the indispensable Andy Serkis and his work to bring him to life. Matt Reeves (who did Cloverfield) takes over his directorial duties from Rupert Wyatt.
As mentioned, there is more action to be had here and it is certainly well choreographed. There’s a shot of Koba on a tank during a key battle sequence that is magnificent. While the action is solid, it is Caesar’s character arc that keeps us interested and keeps this second entry in the reconfigured Apes universe worth watching.
The second week of December sees the debut of two new films as Ridley Scott’s Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings and Chris Rock’s acclaimed comedy Top Five enter the marketplace. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Despite very mixed reviews, Exodus should have no problem topping the charts. Top Five is likely to post a healthy debut opening on a relatively small 975 screens and should battle for the number two spot with three week reigning champ The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Family holdovers Penguins of Madagascar and Big Hero 6 should round out the “top five”.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend:
1. Exodus: Gods and Kings
Predicted Gross: $35.5 million
2. Top Five
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Penguins of Madagascar
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
Box Office Results (December 5-7)
As expected, the first week of December was a quiet one before some of the holiday season’s heavy hitters drop. The Hunger Games stayed #1 in its third frame with $21.7 million, right on pace with my $21.9M estimate. The three-quel has earned $257M so far.
Penguins of Madagascar was second with $10.9 million in weekend two, below my $13.3M prediction. The animated Dreamworks tale has been a financial disappointment, earning just $49M so far. It’s unlikely to even reach $100M.
Another lackluster sequel in its 2nd weekend was third as Horrible Bosses 2 earned $8.4 million, a bit above my $7.2M projection. It’s made $35M at press time.
Big Hero 6 was fourth with $8.1 million – not matching my $10.5M estimate. The profitable Disney animated pic stands at $177M. In fifth was Interstellar with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.6M prediction. It’s total is at $158M.
Finally, the barely promoted horror flick The Pyramid opened ninth with $1.3 million. That’s not exactly impressive, but it did manage to top my estimate of $977,000.
Chris Rock is back in headlining mode as Top Five enters theaters this Friday. The acclaimed comedian wrote and directed the comedy and he stars as well. The supporting cast includes Gabrielle Union, Rosario Dawson, Kevin Hart, Tracy Morgan, and Cedric the Entertainer.
Top Five has garnered the approval of the critical community and it stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. As for Rock, he’s been in supporting mode for the greater part of this decade as he played second fiddle to Adam Sandler and others in the Grown Ups series. Prior to that, he’s seen some decent successes with solo ventures including Down to Earth and Head of State.
Positive word of mouth and reviews should help Top Five open to a solid start. What will limit it is the fact that it’s debuting on a relatively low 975 screens. It should still manage to surpass double digits out of the gate.
Top Five opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
For my Exodus: Gods and Kings prediction, click here:
Ridley Scott unveils his $140 million Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings this Friday and it’s expected to end the three week reign of The Hunger Games at the box office. How much it makes is an intriguing question.
Christian Bale headlines the tale as Moses with Sigourney Weaver, Ben Kingsley, Joel Edgerton, John Turturro, and Aaron Paul rounding out the cast. Director Scott has seen massive success with ancient tales that include Gladiator but also some failures, which includes Kingdom of Heaven.
Reviews have been very mixed with several being downright negative. It currently stands at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes. Biblical epics, by their nature, often generate controversy and Exodus is no exception. As I see it, the studio would probably love to see Exodus match the $43 million that Noah opened at in March of this year. That is definitely a possibility, but my prediction reflects a belief that Exodus may open around the $34 million that Gladiator accomplished in 2000. I’ll say it gets over that, but not by much.
Exodus: Gods and Kings opening weekend prediction: $35.5 million
While moviegoers this weekend will be left with only Thanksgiving leftovers to munch on, it’s been quite a week for film news.
Just today, the title of the 24th James Bond picture was revealed: Spectre. Longtime 007 fans know what this means. SPECTRE (it stands for Special Executive for Counter-Intelligence, Terrorism, Revenge and Extortion) is the dastardly organization that has been run by Ernst Stavro Blofeld during the franchise including Dr. No, Thunderball, You Only Live Twice, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, and Diamonds Are Forever. The group appears to be heading back into Bond lore with two time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz playing the bad guy (whether or not he plays Blofeld is still a mystery). The official announcement this morning lists him playing a different character, but many suspect it’s a head fake and he’ll be stepping into role of Bond’s most iconic villain. Spectre will be out in November 2015 with Daniel Craig returning for his fourth outing as 007 and Skyfall director Sam Mendes behind the camera.
Speaking of iconic villains, news was confirmed this week that The Joker will return in Suicide Squad, Warner Bros. 2016 pic focusing on villains in the DC Comics Universe. Jared Leto, fresh off his Dallas Buyer’s Club Oscar, steps into the part made famous by Jack Nicholson first and then the late Heath Ledger (who picked up a posthumous Academy Award for his work). David Ayer (director of Fury) is heading up the project that also stars Will Smith, Tom Hardy, and Margot Robbie.
So there we have it! Potentially two beloved baddies with two Oscar certified actors filling the roles. Also – ICYMI, there was a trailer for something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I’ve posted it already, but it never hurts to watch again… and again.
The Best Picture race took yet another turn today when the National Board of Review named JC Chandor’s early 80s set New York City crime thriller A Most Violent Year as its choice for film of the year. Chandor is the well-regarded director of both Margin Call and All is Lost. The picture stars Oscar Isaac, Jessica Chastain, Albert Brooks, and David Oyelowo. Critical reception has been outstanding as it rates 93% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.
How significant is a National Board of Review victory? Let’s go the stats as only two NBR winners in the last 25 years have not been nominated for Picture at the Oscars (1998’s Gods and Monsters and 2000’s Quills).
I have yet to include Year among my nine predicted nominees in past blog posts. That is highly likely to change when I do my next round of predictions (probably next week). While its nomination seems forthcoming, a win seems out of reach. Only eight of the last 25 years NBR winners have gone onto win the big prize and Year definitely seems well behind Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, and Selma (and maybe some others).
As for other nominations, JC Chandor has improved his opportunity for a directing nod, as have Oscar Isaac for Actor and Jessica Chastain for Supporting Actress. Chastain seems the most probable right now, due to the more crowded fields in the other categories. In fact, one of Isaac’s main competitors is his Violent costar Oyelowo (whose nod seems assured for Selma). The film could also sneak into the Original Screenplay derby, which is also a packed race.
Any way you look at it – A Most Violent Year improved its Academy opportunities today with the NBR’s activity.
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