Oscar Watch: American Sniper

Another picture that premiered during this week’s AFI Film Festival is garnering some Oscar chatter, though not to the extent of the MLK biopic Selma, which I wrote about yesterday.

That would be Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, which tells the true life story of Chris Kile, who’s said to have over 300 kills in his military service. The central character is played by Bradley Cooper and he’s managed Oscar nominations the past two years (for Actor in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook and Supporting Actor in 2013 with American Hustle).

For Cooper, pulling off the trifecta could be an uphill battle. He is receiving rave reviews for his work here, but the Best Actor race is incredibly crowded. Five performances – Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), all seem likely for recognition. That leaves room for no one else. Still, if one of them were to be left out, Cooper is a wise substitute pick.

The only other actor in the film with any chance would be Sienna Miller, who plays Kile’s wife in the Supporting Actress race. She, too, may be on the outside looking in and it’s somewhat difficult to see her inclusion if Cooper isn’t recognized.

Some reviews out of AFI have been quite positive while others are more mixed. I don’t see Eastwood picking up a Director nod. Strangely enough, American Sniper could be a movie that is recognized only in the Best Picture category. That may depend a lot on its box office grosses, which could be substantial (Lone Survivor is a recent similar genre title that did very well).

For now, I’ll predict Sniper doesn’t make the cut – though that is certainly subject to change as the race takes shape over the next two months.

Oscar Watch: Selma

As of yesterday, a major force joined the Oscar race and it is Selma. I’m not referring to Cruel Intentions actress Selma Blair, but rather Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Jr. biopic that screened at the AFI Film Festival last night. The picture focuses on the 1965 voting right marches in Alabama. Critics got their first look at it prior to its December 25th limited release and January 9th nationwide bow. Their verdict points to Selma as a highly likely nominee for Best Picture. Additionally, David Oyelowo (known to most as Forest Whitaker’s son in Lee Daniels’ The Butler) has drawn raves as MLK.

Oyelowo seems primed to join a Best Actor race that already appears to have four near lock nominees: Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton in Birdman, Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, and Steve Carell in Foxcatcher. With Oyelowo seemingly joining that group, the race for Best Actor nominees may well be over.

As for other performers in Selma, either Tim Roth (as George Wallace) or Tom Wilkinson (as Lyndon Johnson) could find themselves competing against one another in the Supporting Actor category. Their nominations are far less assured than Oyelowo’s, but that race still seems somewhat open compared to Actor.

Carmen Ejogo (as Coretta Scott King) may be facing an uphill battle in the Supporting Actress category, but it’s certainly a possibility.

Selma now seems likely to make some Oscar history as its director DuVernay would become the first African American woman to be nominated in that race. Based on the reaction that occurred at AFI, history is about to be made.

Interstellar Movie Review

There are many terms that could be used to describe Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, but my choice is “spacejerker”. For all the visual bells and whistles on display (and they’re considerable), the picture is really an old-fashioned family drama that attempts to wring tears from its audience on an often annoyingly consistent basis.

It’s also a mix of 2001: A Space Odyssey, Field of Dreams, and, surprisingly, vintage M. Night Shyamalan at times. Add that peculiar concoction up and Interstellar is a mixed bag that still demands to be seen on the big screen (preferably an IMAX one).

As do most pics of the genre, we begin in the “near future” as Earth’s resources are becoming alarmingly scarce. The belief is that the planet will soon become uninhabitable and the citizens of Earth have resigned themselves to their eventual fate. Cooper (Matthew McConaughey) is a relic of a time gone by as a former astronaut whose services are seemingly no longer required. The widower lives on a desolate farm with his father-in-law (John Lithgow) and two young children. His daughter Murphy believes their home is haunted by a spirit attempting to communicate with her. Her father soon comes to believe that the messages she’s getting are legitimate. These otherworldly signals put Cooper in contact with NASA, who exist now as a secret organization. Professor Brand (Michael Caine, of course) and his daughter Amelia (Anne Hathaway) are spearheading a mission to investigate a wormhole orbiting the planet of Saturn. This wormhole may lead to a planet that can allow the human race to travel there and survive. Naturally, they pick Cooper as their pilot.

Cooper’s decision to depart devastates Murphy, even though he promises her he’ll return. The mission begins and leads to many surprises that bend the course of time, so much so that we soon see Murphy all grown as Jessica Chastain (and Casey Affleck as her big brother) while McConaughey is off in galaxies of space still looking like he’s behind the wheel of his beloved Lincoln.

Going any further into Interstellar‘s plot would be getting into spoiler territory. In case you don’t already know, there’s an A list actor who makes a “surprise” appearance around midway through. There are twists and turns (some handled better than others) that gave me the aforementioned Shyamalan vibe at times.

Yet at its heart, Interstellar is about a relationship between a dad who promised his little girl he wouldn’t be gone forever and whether he’s capable of keeping that vow. When the emotional resonance of that dynamic is pulled off well, it’s due in main part to McConaughey’s skill. He’s proven himself to be a fine actor, especially in recent years and that holds true here.

It is not because of the dialogue, which handles the family dynamic in mostly familiar fashion. Hathaway’s character soon has her own daddy issues with her Professor father. This adds up to a lot of crying. McConaughey crying. Hathaway crying. Murphy crying – as a child and an adult. Caine crying. If the robots who help the team on their mission were capable of tears, I’m confident they would’ve as well. However, it’s only in a couple of spots where the film came close to hitting an emotional moment for me. The rest of the plentiful moments seem forced and don’t have powerful dialogue to accompany them.

On the bright side, Interstellar truly is phenomenal looking. Even with my issues pertaining to the screenplay, this is unquestionably worth the trip to the theater. Nolan is successful at staging a number of intense and impeccably choreographed action sequences, whether on a planet with giant awesome looking waves or on one that makes Antarctica look downright tropical.

When Interstellar endlessly tries to pull your heartstrings, it often comes up short. There are a host of significant “wow” moments thankfully that will make your eyes widen. They just won’t be as wet as the filmmakers want them to be.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: November 14-16

A comedy sequel 20 years in the making and a musical romantic drama hit the marketplace this weekend as Dumb and Dumber To and Beyond the Lights make their debuts. You can read my detailed predictions on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

My prediction for Dumb To is a bit lower than that of others and it stands a chance of opening #1. However, my estimate puts in a dogfight with Interstellar for the runner-up position with Disney’s Big Hero 6 remaining atop the charts. Hero should experience a smallish decline while Interstellar could lose close to 40% of its opening audience.

I’m predicting Beyond the Lights has a healthy debut at #4 (though others are putting it considerably lower than my projection) while Gone Girl should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $38.9 million (representing a drop of 30%)

2. Dumb and Dumber To

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

3. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Beyond the Lights

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

Two big new releases saw their debuts this past weekend and both managed to open under my estimates.

Disney’s Big Hero 6, as predicted, opened in first with a sturdy $56.2 million, a bit shy of my $61.4M estimate. Still, the animated pic should anticipate a robust run ahead.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar performed decently, but undeniably below most expectations. It earned $47.5 million, well under my $57.2M estimate (which was lower than plenty of other prognosticators). Since its Wednesday IMAX roll out, it’s made $49.6M. This opening indicates that Interstellar could struggle to reach $200M domestically, which would be a letdown.

In third was Gone Girl with $6.2 million in weekend #6, just over my $5.4M estimate. The David Fincher hit has amassed an impressive $145M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t have the eventual #4 or #5 in my top five as Ouija was fourth with $5.8 million and Fury fifth with $5.6 million. Their respective totals stand at $43M and $69M.

I had Nightcrawler in third, but it dropped to seventh in weekend #2. The Jake Gyllenhall grossed $5.3 million, on pace with my $5.4M projection and has earned $19M at press time.

As for the animated The Book of Life, I didn’t quite anticipate how much Big Hero 6 would eat into its audience. It grossed just $2.7 million for a tenth place showing, while I predicted it’d be fifth with $5.3M. Its total is at $45 million.

That’s all for now, friends!

Birdman Movie Review

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman has plenty to say about the current mega-blockbuster movie culture that we live in and have for some time. The screenplay (by the director along with Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo) puts in its two cents regarding the power that critics have, which is highly debatable in the Internet culture. Ironically, while Inarritu and his team may share a disdain for them, it is likely the rave reviews and Oscar buzz Birdman has received that will grant it a larger audience than expected. Yet, ultimately, this picture will be remembered as a story of an actor trying to make a comeback while giving its actual star one humdinger of a real one.

That would be Michael Keaton in the kind of part that most actors dream about and never get to play. He’s Riggan Thomson, an aging celebrity known to the world for his role as Birdman in a series of wildly popular comic book flicks from two decades ago. As you can gather, this is not much of a stretch for Keaton himself who brought Batman to the masses a quarter century ago. In the present day, he’s directing, writing, and starring in a Broadway play based on a Raymond Carver short story. He sees it as an opportunity to make himself relevant again and yet he’s haunted by his famous alter ego. The production of the play is a mess, which reflects Riggan’s personal life. He employs his fresh out of rehab daughter (Emma Stone) as his assistant. One of his actresses is his girlfriend (Andrea Riseborough), who may or may not be carrying his child. His ex-wife (Amy Ryan) turns up from time to time. Riggan makes life difficult for his lawyer and “best friend” (Zach Galifianakis). And his main co-stars (Edward Norton and Naomi Watts) are action packed with emotional issues.

Birdman shows us an actor on the edge of sanity who is grappling with this massive undertaking of the play and dealing with his wilting fame. He feels like he’s doing something of utmost importance while those around him may not see it that way. The screenplay doesn’t shy away from humorously but honestly ribbing the healthy egos that actors are often known for displaying. Norton’s character could perhaps be based on himself, if you believe the gossip about how difficult he is to work with in real life.

While the pic pokes its dark humor from time to time at the superhero genre craze, it cheekily employs three actors who’ve been a part of them: Keaton, Stone (Gwen Stacy in Spider-Man), and Norton (The Incredible Hulk). And while Inarritu could feel those movies are just visual fluff, Birdman itself is a technical marvel, so to speak. There is a visual trickery to make the film seem like one long continuous take and the result from Emmanuel Lubezki’s camerawork is often hypnotic.

The supporting cast is uniformly top-notch. Every performance is rock solid and every actor gets their moments to shine. Let me there be no doubt though – this is Keaton’s show. People who describe themselves as “movie people” (pretentiously or not) all seem to have a Keaton affinity. Part of it could be that he’s the original Caped Crusader in the blockbuster area. Same goes for Beetlejuice. We’ve never seen him like this, but I believe we always suspected he was capable of this kind of amazing performance. Here, Keaton must balance portraying several alter egos and it’s a joy to witness.

Birdman is not necessarily a movie for the masses. Its pitch black humor could fall flat with some while others will deem it too inside baseball. The ending may be perfect to some viewers, but it took one step too far into unnecessary ambiguity for my taste. There’s a terrific scene when Riggan tells off The New York Times theater critic (Lindsay Duncan). On one hand, he feels liberated telling her what he really thinks of her high-mindedness and misguided sense of self importance. On the other, he’s terrified of her negative review. This explains Riggan’s character in a way – looking for liberation where he may not ever find it and scared as hell the whole time. That probably describes the way a lot of actors truly feel and Birdman drives that point home in an original, often funny, and constantly interesting ways.

***1/2 (out of four)

Beyond the Lights Box Office Prediction

This Friday’s Beyond the Lights represents a fine example of a film that could do absolutely nothing or greatly exceed expectations upon its debut. The romantic drama focusing on the music industry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to positive reviews and it currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The cast includes Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Nate Parker, Minnie Driver, Danny Glover, and rapper Machine Gun Kelly.

The big question is whether or not Beyond the Lights reaches its African-American target audience. If so, I believe Lights could reach double digits when it rolls out on a relatively small 1600 screens Friday. Truth be told, this could simply not land with its intended audience and debut in the mid single digits.

However, I’m going the opposite way here. I believe the positive buzz and frequent TV spots I’ve seen will allow Lights to post a respectable debut and reach double digits.

Beyond the Lights opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my Dumb and Dumber To prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/

Dumb and Dumber To Box Office Prediction

One of the most beloved comedic duos returns as Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) blast back in theaters in Dumb and Dumber To, out Friday. The Farrelly Brothers are back in the director chairs as this sequel is released nearly 20 years after the original earned $127 million domestically. Kathleen Turner, Laurie Holden, and Rob Riggle are in the supporting cast.

A lot has changed in those two decades. At the time, Carrey was a box office force as Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and the first Dumber all were huge hits in 1994. In the last decade or so, Carrey’s power has waned. His last traditional comedic release, 2008’s Yes Man, couldn’t break the $100M dollar mark. We’re a long ways away from even 2003 when his Bruce Almighty could debut to $67 million. And it’s important to remember that to a young generation of moviegoers, a high-profile Carrey release is something they’re not accustomed to rushing out to the multiplex to see.

Having said that, 1994’s Dumb and Dumber is arguably the actor’s most fondly remembered release with its constant rotation on cable TV and the great work of Jeff Daniels is part of the reason as well. The most fair comparison to how Dumb To could perform may well be last year’s Anchorman sequel (another cherished comedy) which got off to a $28M traditional Friday to Sunday start.

Rolling out in approximately 3000 theaters, the Anchorman number is just about where I see this premiering. It could certainly reach past $30M, but I’ll put it just under that.

Dumb and Dumber To opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million

For my Beyond the Lights prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 7-9

After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.

As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $57.2 million

3. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.

The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.

Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).

In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.

On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.

That’s all for now, friends!

Big Hero 6 Box Office Prediction

In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar. 

It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.

My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.

Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million

For my prediction on Interstellar, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

Interstellar Box Office Prediction

One of the most eagerly awaited titles of the year arrives Friday when Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar blasts into theaters. The science fiction epic stars recently minted Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and Nolan mainstay Michael Caine, among others.

Nolan, of course, is best known for his massive Dark Knight trilogy. He is one of the few directors around whose name sells tickets. Of course, Interstellar is not expected to come near the box office grosses of his Batman flicks. A more fair benchmark may well be 2010’s Inception, which opened to $62 million on its way to a $292 million domestic haul.

The picture currently sits at a respectable though unspectacular 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The TV ads and trailers certainly succeed at marketing Interstellar as an “event movie” while maintaining Nolan’s desired secrecy prior to release. Reaching the Inception take of above $60M is certainly a major possibility, but my gut feeling reflects a belief that its debut will be more in line with Gravity last year. That film opened with $55.7 million in October of 2013. There could be a real battle for #1 next weekend with Disney’s Big Hero 6 premiering as well and I believe it’ll likely edge out Interstellar. Still – Nolan’s pic should enjoy a very solid roll out.

Interstellar opening weekend prediction: $57.2 million

For my Big Hero 6 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/