Month: September 2014

Box Office Predictions: September 19-21

Four new titles enter the marketplace this weekend to compete with the current #1 and #2 – No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2. They are the YA adaptation The Maze Runner, the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones, star-studded comedy This Is Where I Leave You, and Kevin Smith horror flick Tusk.

**In a change from normal practice, let’s get Tusk out of the way first. Kevin Smith, known most from Clerks fame, has directed this low-budget horror pic. It’s unknown at press time how many screens it will open on, though it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the three other new releases. Without knowing a screen count, it’s difficult to post a detailed prediction post on it, so I didn’t. I will say it opens with $2.3 million, well below having the possibility of being in the top five.

As for the other newbies, you can find my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/the-maze-runner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/a-walk-among-the-tombstones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/this-is-where-i-leave-you-box-office-prediction/

I expect the three newcomers to populate the top three positions this weekend and the possibility exists of a battle between Maze Runner and Tombstones. Current #1 No Good Deed should suffer a far bigger decline than Dolphin Tale 2 and the two could duke it out for the four spot.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $26.1 million

2. A Walk Among the Tombstones

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. This Is Where I Leave You

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Dolphin Tale 2

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. No Good Deed

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

In a bit of a surprise, the Idris Elba/Taraji P. Henson thriller No Good Deed debuted at #1 with a robust $24.2 million, well beyond my meager $13.8M projection. Clearly the marketing campaign worked with 60% of its audience being female. As predicted above, it should drop precipitously in its sophomore frame, but with a low budget, it’s an unqualified hit.

Dolphin Tale 2 had to settle for the #2 spot with $15.8 million, in line with my $16.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $19.1 million opening gross of its predecessor, though it shouldn’t fall too far in weekend #2.

The rest of the top five was made up of summer holdovers that all didn’t drop quite as far as I expected. Guardians of the Galaxy was third with $8.1 million (my prediction: $6.8M), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fourth with $4.8 million ($3.9M was my estimate), and Let’s Be Cops fifth with $4.3 million (my prediction: $3.4M).

One interesting box office story was the sixth place debut of The Drop, a crime thriller starring Tom Hardy and the late James Gandolfini. It managed an impressive $4.1 million on only 809 screens, giving it the second highest per screen average of the weekend after Deed. This was certainly above the estimates of most and I didn’t even make a prediction on it.

That’s all for now, friends! Until next time.

This Is Where I Leave You Box Office Prediction

It’s got all-star cast and a director who’s had his share of successful comedies, but I have my doubts as to whether This Is Where I Leave You will have much of an impact with audiences. Shawn Levy, the man behind the Pink Panther reboot, the Night at the Museum franchise and Date Night, is behind the camera. The family comedy’s cast includes Jason Bateman, Tina Fey, Jane Fonda, Adam Driver, Rose Byrne, Corey Stoll, Dax Shepard, Connie Britton, Kathryn Hahn, Timothy Olyphant, and Abigail Spencer.

Yet my take is that the TV spots and trailers haven’t made this look like a must-see and reviews are mixed. This is the exact type of flick that audiences might wait to watch at home in a few months. The high-profile cast could theoretically push it to a bigger opening that I’m imagining, but my gut says it won’t even reach the mid teens and be a box office disappointment like Levy’s last outing, The Internship.

This Is Where I Leave You opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my prediction on The Maze Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/the-maze-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on A Walk Among the Tombstones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/a-walk-among-the-tombstones-box-office-prediction/

The Maze Runner Box Office Prediction

20th Century Fox is putting its faith in The Maze Runner, out Friday. The YA pic, based on a bestselling 2009 novel by James Dashner, is looking to appeal to the Hunger Games/Divergent crowd and the studio has already began pre-production on a sequel.

I’m not so sure the sci-fi flick will reach the numbers that Fox is hoping for. However, there is a significant bright side: the film only cost a reported $30 million to produce and it’ll certainly sail well past that in its domestic run alone. Some prognosticators have it grossing its budget in the first weekend, but I’m not willing to go that far. The book is well-known, though not to the level of Hunger Games or Divergent. The latter pic grossed a terrific $54 million earlier this year and that seems out of the question here.

The Maze Runner‘s trailers and TV spots might make it look like a poor man’s Hunger Games to those not familiar with the source material. Still, I’ll predict it debuts north of $25M for what should be a #1 opening, unless Liam Neeson’s A Walk Among the Tombstones eclipses it.

The Maze Runner opening weekend prediction: $26.1 million

For my prediction on A Walk Among the Tombstones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/a-walk-among-the-tombstones-box-office-prediction/

For my This Is Where I Leave You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/this-is-where-i-leave-you-box-office-prediction/

A Walk Among the Tombstones Box Office Prediction

Liam Neeson is back in vengeance mode in A Walk Among the Tombstones, out Friday. The actor has surprisingly turned into a major action star over the past few years since the unexpected success of Taken in 2008. Since then, all of Neeson’s genre pics has debuted to around $20 million or over. His previous outing, this February’s Non-Stop, opened to $28 million on its way to an impressive $91M domestic haul.

Tombstones finds Neeson as a private investigator searching for a kidnapped woman in New York City. Sounds right up his alley, doesn’t it? The picture is directed by Scott Frank in his directorial debut and he’s best known as a screenwriter for films such as Out of Sight and Minority Report. If Tombstones reaches the $28M gross of Neeson’s predecessor, it certainly wouldn’t shock me.

However, my gut tells me a premiere in the range of 2011’s Unknown seems more likely. That movie opened to nearly $22M and that seems about right for this one.

A Walk Among the Tombstones opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million

For my prediction on The Maze Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/the-maze-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my This Is Where I Leave You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/this-is-where-i-leave-you-box-office-prediction/

Oscar History: 2007

Tonight on the blog – we review the Oscars from 2007, continuing with my series of Oscar History posts. 2007 was a year in which the brilliant Coen Brothers finally received some Academy love. Their critically lauded No Country for Old Men won Best Picture and earned the twosome the Best Director prize. It’s hard to argue with the Academy’s choice of this terrific pic for the top prize.

In my view, There Will Be Blood would’ve been another deserving recipient and it was nominated for Best Picture, along with Joe Wright’s Atonement, Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton, and Jason Reitman’s Juno. I likely would’ve left Atonement and Juno off the list and considered David Fincher’s meticulously crafted Zodiac and/or Ridley Scott’s American Gangster.

A running theme of my Oscar posts has been the Academy’s consistent lack of comedy inclusion and, for me, the genre’s 2007 highlight was Superbad, one of the finest raunch-fests in quite some time.

I was also a huge fan of Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez’s ode to B movies, Grindhouse.

There Will Be Blood director Paul Thomas Anderson was included in the Best Director race along with Gilroy and Reitman. Atonement director Joe Wright was the lone director left out whose film was nominated and Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was a bit of a surprise nominee. As mentioned, they all lost to the Coens. I would have certainly included Fincher’s work in Zodiac.

The Best Actor race was over as soon as Daniel Day-Lewis’s work in There Will Be Blood was seen and it would mark his second win after being honored for My Left Foot eighteen years earlier. Other nominees (who truly can say it was just an honor to be nominated after Day-Lewis’s tour de force): George Clooney in Michael Clayton, Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd, Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, and Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises.

Nobody plays a calculating bad guy better than Denzel Washington and I probably would have found room for him with his turn in American Gangster.

In the Best Actress race, Marion Cotillard would win for La Vie En Rose – beating out Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away from Her), Laura Linney (The Savages), and Ellen Page (Juno).

Leaving out Keira Knightley’s work in Atonement was a surprise. For my dark horse contender, Christina Ricci’s fearless work in Black Snake Moan might’ve made my cut.

Like the Best Actor category, the Supporting Actor race was over when audiences and critics saw Javier Bardem’s amazing performance in No Country for Old Men. Other nominees: Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War, Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild, and Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton.

Paul Dano’s performance in There Will Be Blood certainly should’ve been acknowledged here. Two others to consider: Robert Downey Jr.’s work as a boozy reporter in Zodiac and Kurt Russell’s hilarious and sadistic role in Grindhouse.

The Supporting Actress race belonged to Tilda Swinton as a ruthless attorney in Michael Clayton. She would win over double nominee Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There, Ruby Dee for American Gangster, Saoirse Ronan in Atonement, and Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone.

I would’ve included Kelly MacDonald as Josh Brolin’s wife in No Country for Old Men.

And there’s my take on the ’07 Oscars, my friends! I’ll have 2008 posted soon.

Box Office Predictions: September 12-14

The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/dolphin-tale-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/no-good-deed-box-office-prediction/

I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Dolphin Tale 2

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. No Good Deed

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (September 5-7)

In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.

Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.

YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.

Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.

Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

Dolphin Tale 2 Box Office Prediction

Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.

In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.

Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my No Good Deed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/no-good-deed-box-office-prediction/

No Good Deed Box Office Prediction

Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.

Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.

No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Dolphin Tale 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/dolphin-tale-2-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Bill Murray in St. Vincent

The Toronto Film Festival kicked off two days ago and you can expect the Oscar picture will become a bit clearer once some of the heavyweights are screened over the next few days.

One such picture is St. Vincent, which debuted last night as part of Bill Murray Day at the festival. For movie lovers, though, isn’t everyday Bill Murray Day??

Reaction to the pic has been quite positive, though its reviews suggest it could have an uphill battle to be recognized in the Best Picture race. On the other hand, Mr. Murray could be in position to receive his second Best Actor nomination, eleven years after his first for Lost in Translation. There’s already stiff competition – as Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) also seem to be likely nominees with several other actors films having not yet screened.

Still, Murray is a living legend and if St. Vincent connects with audiences, he could certainly be in the running. St. Vincent opens domestically on October 24.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We’ve reached the last day for my first round of Oscar predictions and that means we’ve arrived at the biggest category of them all – Best Picture! If you missed my other five posts covering Director and all four acting races, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/02/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-director/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/01/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/30/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Since 2011, the Best Picture race is the only category where there can be more than five nominees and it can range anywhere between 5-10. In each of the three years since the system was put in place, there have been nine nominated films. I’m going against the trend (call it a gut feeling, subject change) and predicting the magic number will be eight in 2014. And with that, my first predictions for Best Picture, with other possible nominees listed after:

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

 

Other Possibilities:

American Sniper

Big Eyes

Fury

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Men, Women, and Children

A Most Violent Year

Mr. Turner

Wild