Box Office Predictions: July 11-13

This coming weekend, there’s bound to be lots of monkey business at the box office as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opens. It looks on course to absolutely dominate the weekend and you can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/06/dawn-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

As I will talk about in just a minute, the Fourth of July holiday box office was unimpressive and that’s being kind. Dawn is the only new entry coming and all the holdovers should have drops ranging from high 30s to mid 50s. Current #1 and #2 Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy should suffer the largest drops.

And with that, I’ll predict the top six for the weekend:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $77.2 million

2. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

3. Tammy

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

6. Earth to Echo

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

As mentioned, this was a bad Fourth of July at the movies. How bad? Adjusted for inflation, it’s the poorest performance in 27 summers. Ouch. Summer 2014 is currently running 20% behind last summer. Transformers: Age of Extinction held onto the top spot with $37 million, but it’s 63% drop is troubling and Extinction will certainly be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise. It couldn’t match my $42.2M estimate. The robot extravaganza has earned $175 million so far.

Melissa McCarthy’s Tammy got off to a middling start with $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $33.3 million since its Wednesday debut. This is below my respective estimates of $27.3M and $42.9M. Bad reviews and negative audience reaction (a troubling C+ on CinemaScore) likely contributed to its so-so premiere and it shouldn’t have the strong legs that many summer comedies develop.

In third was 22 Jump Street in its fourth weekend with $9.8 million, just above my $8.9M prediction. The blockbuster sequel stands at $159 million.

Landing with disappointing results in fourth was the horror flick Deliver Us from Evil with just $9.7 million over the traditional weekend and $15.2 million since Wednesday. It fell short of my respective estimates of $13.1M and $20.6M. Like most titles in its genre, expect this one to fall fast next weekend.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 made $8.9 million in weekend #4 for firth place, above my $7.8M projection. The animated sequel has brought in lackluster results and stands at $140 million so far, well below expectations.

Another kiddie pic debuted in sixth as I predicted with Earth to Echo earning a muted $8.3 million over the weekend and $13.5 million since Wednesday. This is just slightly higher than my estimates of $8M and $12.3M, respectively.

That’s all for now!

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 60-51

It’s day four of my personal Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s and that means numbers 60-51 coming your way. If you missed my three previous installments, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/03/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/04/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-80-71/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/05/top-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-70-61/

Onto the next ones!

60. “My Lovin’ (You’re Never Gonna Get It)” by En Vogue (1992)

The first single from En Vogue’s second album hit #1 on the charts and is probably the last song a guy would want to hear a girl sing to them at the club.

59. “Breakin’ My Heart (Pretty Brown Eyes)” by Mint Condition (1991)

This group only put out a couple of hits, but this groove managed to stay on the chart for 34 weeks.

58. “All Around the World” by Lisa Stansfield (1990)

Stansfield’s biggest worldwide hit peaked at #3 in the United States.

57. “You Are Not Alone” by Michael Jackson (1995)

What happens when you pair MJ with R. Kelly’s production? You get this beautiful second single from his History album which gave the singer yet another #1.

56. “It’s So Hard To Say Goodbye to Yesterday” by Boyz II Men (1991)

The boy group is on the list once again with this cover of a 1975 ballad.

55. “Baby Baby Baby” by TLC (1992)

The group’s second single from their debut album is yet another production from the hit making L.A.&Babyface duo.

54. “My Love is the Shhh!” by Somethin’ for the People (1997)

If you don’t know this one, you need more 90s R&B knowledge! This California based group had their largest hit with this track tailor made for the clubs.

53. “I Believe I Can Fly” by R. Kelly (1996)

Don’t pretend like you don’t crank this if you’re alone in the car. Kelly’s monster hit from the Space Jam soundtrack is the prolific artist’s largest hit of his career.

52. “Can’t You See” by Total featuring The Notorious B.I.G. (1994)

The Puff Daddy backed female group hit it big with this track from the New Jersey Drive soundtrack featuring a killer opening verse from the Notorious B.I.G.

51. “If I Ever Fall in Love” by Shai (1992)

This fantastic a cappella groove spent eight weeks at #2 on the charts, being held from the top spot by Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You”.

And that’s today’s edition, folks! Numbers 50-41 will be arriving tomorrow!

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

This Friday brings us Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, the eighth picture in a franchise over 45 years old and the direct sequel to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes. There have been a number of changes in the past three years with Clovefield director Matt Reeves behind the camera in place of Rise‘s Rupert Wyatt. We also have a new cast of human actors that includes Gary Oldman, Jason Clarke, and Keri Russell. Andy Serkis does return with his acclaimed motion capture performance of ape leader Caesar.

Three  summers back, Rise was a pleasant surprise to both critics and audiences. It got off to a strong $54 million opening weekend in August 2011 on its way to a $176 million domestic take. This time around, expectations are even higher. And it also seems that critics are even more enthusiastic about Dawn. It currently holds a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Nearly all tent pole summer 2014 entries from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 to Godzilla to X-Men: Days of Future Past to How to Train Your Dragon 2 to Transformers: Age of Extinction have either just met expectations or grossed under them. Dawn is in a unique position of following a well-received original franchise entry and having critics gushing about it. This could mean big things for it and I believe it has a fair chance of possibly becoming the season’s largest hit, which I wrote about last week here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/will-the-apes-rule-summer-2014/

As for its opening weekend gross, it should have no problem whatsoever surpassing the $54 million that its predecessor grossed out of the gate. While I don’t see it earning a low to mid 90s haul like Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, or X-Men did, it’s within the realm of possibility. I think a better bet is that it grosses in the mid to high 70s and may develop strong legs in subsequent weekends.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $77.2 million

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 70-61

It’s day three of my personal Top 90 R&B singles from the 1990s and today we’ll cover numbers 70-61. In case you missed the first two installments, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/03/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/04/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-80-71/

Let’s get to it, shall we?

70. “Someone to Love” by Jon B. and Babyface (1995)

This duet was featured on the Bad Boys soundtrack and marked the biggest hit for Mr. B.

69. “Make It Hot” by Nicole (1998)

Written by Missy Elliot and produced by Timbaland, this marks one of the mega-producer’s most memorable beats.

68. “Another Sad Love Song” by Toni Braxton (1993)

The first official single from her debut album, this L.A.&Babyface produced ballad hit the top ten in the summer of ’93.

67. “Touch Me, Tease Me” by Case featuring Foxy Brown (1996)

A highlight from the The Nutty Professor soundtrack, this groove also introduced us to Ms. Foxy Brown.

66. “All 4 Love” by Color Me Badd (1991)

It may not be their biggest hit (wait until later on this list), but it’s a personal favorite of mine.

65. “Red Light Special” by TLC (1995)

Once again, Babyface is behind this one that marked the second single from TLC’s landmark album CrazySexyCool.

64. “Hit Me Off” by New Edition (1996)

The mega-group from the 1980s reunited in 1996 and it produced this terrific first single from their comeback album.

63. “Freak Me” by Silk (1993)

It’s got some of the most gloriously raunchy lyrics of any song to hit #1 and it marked a career highlight for this group.

62. “Waterfalls” by TLC (1995)

The summer jam of 1995, this TLC joint was most recently memorably featured in We’re the Millers.

61. “In the Closet” by Michael Jackson (1992)

The first appearance by Mr. Jackson is a Teddy Riley produced banger with a great video featuring Naomi Campbell.

And that’s today’s edition, folks! I’ll be back tomorrow with numbers 60-51.

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 80-71

We have arrived at Day 2 of my list of personal Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s and this means numbers 80-71 coming your way. In case you missed Part 1, you can find it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/03/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

Let’s go right to it:

80. “Set Adrift on Memory Bliss” by PM Dawn (1991)

The soul duo had their largest hit with this jam.

79. “I’m Going Down” by Mary J. Blige (1994)

Ms. Blige had a soulful hit with this cover of the Rose Royce 1970s song.

78. “Water Runs Dry” by Boyz II Men (1995)

The Boyz make their first appearance on the list with Babyface produced slow track.

77. “100% Pure Love” by Crystal Waters (1994)

Crystal Waters techno/R&B blend hit #1 on the dance chart.

76. “Keep On Walkin” by CeCe Peniston (1992)

CeCe has a number of hits and her signature song is considered “Finally”, but this one has always been my persona favorite.

75. “I Have Nothing” by Whitney Houston (1993)

Ms. Whitney makes her first list appearance with this David Foster produced ballad from The Bodyguard.

74. “Candy Rain” by Soul for Real (1994)

The boy band hit #1 on the R&B singles chart with this track produced by Poke&Tone and Heavy D.

73. “Tell Me” by Groove Theory (1995)

This male/female duo had their biggest hit with this jam.

72. “One In a Million” by Aaliyah (1996)

The late great singer makes her debut on here with the title track from her critically acclaimed second album which featured the beginning of her groundbreaking collaborations with Timbaland.

71. “The Best Things In Life are Free” by Luther Vandross and Janet Jackson

Featured on the soundtrack to the Damon Wayans comedy Mo’ Money, the Jam&Lewis produced track also features a rap cameo from Bell Biv Devoe.

And that’s all for today, my friends! Back again tomorrow with numbers 70-61!

 

Life Itself Movie Review

“Most people choose to write a blog. I needed to.”

These words are written by Roger Ebert in the latter stages of his life when cancer has robbed him of the ability to speak. His outlet to his legions of readers and admirers comes in the form of his extensive blog. Ebert, unlike many of his old school critic colleagues, was quick to embrace the Internet and how it could reach so many people.

And indeed – Steve James’s powerful new documentary Life Itself, based loosely on Roger’s memoir, shows how many people Roger reached through a career that spanned nearly half a century. It is impossible for me to write a proper “review” of this doc without admitting the profound effect that Roger Ebert has had on me personally. As a kid when I first realized how much movies meant to me and how much I loved watching them and talking about them and writing about them, it was Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert’s TV program that assisted in serving as that catalyst. As a teen, I would pour over Ebert’s yearly edition of his film reviews that came out every year and read them cover to cover. This would, of course, become a weekly occurrence after the Internet became an everyday fact of life for most of us. When I began penning movie reviews weekly for my hometown newspaper in Northwest Ohio, I was trying to write like Roger Ebert and probably failing. I’ll be damned if I didn’t love doing it though.

Life Itself goes well beyond documenting Roger’s considerable talents when it came to film criticism, but it thankfully spends a decent portion of its running time celebrating it. When the Siskel and Ebert program became a phenomenon, there were fellow critics (especially on the coasts) that believed the duo had somehow bastardized the art form with their “Thumbs Up” rating and brief reviews on the show. You don’t hear that often anymore because, well, it’s  a ridiculous and high-minded notion that misses the central point. Roger Ebert’s style of writing was conversational and made you feel like you were hearing a very intelligent discussion on whatever feature he was opining about. When one reads a film review and you feel like the critic is talking down to the reader, that’s a failure of writing. Ebert and Siskel understood that. Most importantly, Roger Ebert loved movies. And he went out of his way to celebrate and promote filmmakers who he believed in. By way of his reviews and TV program, this helped promote Scorsese and Spike Lee and Gregory Nava and Errol Morris and Werner Herzog and countless others. It exposed audiences to movies and movie makers who they might not otherwise have known about.

One such person that Ebert unquestionably exposed to a much bigger audience was Steve James, whose 1994 documentary Hoop Dreams was named by Siskel and Ebert as their favorite picture in a year when Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption were also released. James does an amazing job returning the favor with Life Itself.

When James and Ebert sought out to make this documentary, they didn’t know that its subject would soon pass away. The cancer that Ebert suffered ravaged his face, his voice, and body. The picture doesn’t hold back from showing some uncomfortable scenes of Ebert at the hospital undergoing treatments you wouldn’t wish on anyone. Yet we also see the unwavering dedication of his wife of twenty years, Chaz. Life Itself is as much a love story as anything else and theirs is a strong one that truly shows “the sickness and in health” portion of their vows.

James does an incredible job of jamming a lot of information about Ebert’s life into two hours. We hear of his childhood, his alcoholism, Chicago newspaper politics, the national celebrity that he and Gene gained, his Pulitzer prize, his writing of the screenplay to the 1960s Russ Meyer sex flick Beyond the Valley of the Dolls. There’s much about the complicated and often extremely antagonistic relationship between Siskel and Ebert. Life Itself is able to show all these aspects of Ebert in a fast-paced, always fascinating way. And it doesn’t hold its subject up as a saint by any means. Especially in the early portions of his rise to prominence, Ebert could be difficult and arrogant and the picture doesn’t shy away from that.

We are witnesses to Ebert’s last months in this world and it’s not always easy going, but his bravery and Chaz’s when facing these times are emotional and inspirational. Ebert makes it clear that besides his beloved family, it’s his work that gets him through these horrendously difficult times. It is that work of Ebert that inspired not only so many writers, but even the people he was writing about. There is a lovely passage in the doc where Martin Scorsese explains how Roger assisted him in getting back on his game after a rough patch in his life.

Even if you don’t have the distant connection through similar interests that I have with Ebert, Life Itself is worth seeking out. It’s a masterfully done documentary that is worthy of the man it covers. For me – it provided a final and often funny and often touching and uplifting last chance to see a person who, in many ways, is the reason I’m typing these words right now.

**** (out of four)

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 90-81

Two things: I love lists and I love 90s R&B music. And seeing that I’ve got this here handy blog, I figured why not do my own personal Top 90 R&B songs of that decade that people are beginning to get nostalgic about?

Making this list was far more complicated than I anticipated. The main reason: where to draw the line between hip hop and R&B? This was a tricky proposition, but I ultimately arrived at this decision – if the song being considered could also potentially be on a Top 90 Hip Hop Songs, it would not be included here. This means no Heavy D and the Boyz, Salt n Pepa, Naughty by Nature, or “Good Vibrations” by Marky Mark or “Tennessee” by Arrested Development. Don’t be surprised if that hip hop list does surface on the blog in the future.

The other major decision I made – the songs had to have been singles. In other words, they were on the radio. I didn’t want to do a deep cuts list of tracks that you loyal readers have never heard of. So if you’re going to be a stickler – feel free to think of this as Top 90 R&B singles of the decade.

In the same way that 1980s were a golden age for pop (MJ, Prince, Madonna, etc…), I look at the 1990s as a golden age for rhythm and blues music with acts such as Boyz II Men, Bell Biv Devoe, Aaliyah, Whitney Houston, Aaliyah, Toni Braxton, TLC , Tony! Toni! Tone!, Mariah Carey, Janet Jackson, and many others dominating the charts. At the same time, producers of the genre like Teddy Riley, Timbaland, Dallas Austin, Jam and Lewis, and Babyface came to the forefront with fantastic work.

So let’s get to it, shall we? This will be a nine-part series posted daily. So put on your 90s overalls or cuff your jeans and enjoy these 1990s flashbacks!

90. “What About Your Friends” by TLC (1992)

The third single from TLC’s debut album marks their first appearance (but not last) on this list with production from Dallas Austin.

89. “Wanna Get With U” by Guy (1990)

Super producer Teddy Riley formed this group in the late 1980s and they were instrumental in developing the “New Jack Swing” sound that dominated the era. This is one of my favorites by them.

88. “I’m Dreamin” by Christopher Williams (1991)

Featured on the soundtrack to New Jack City, this new jack single gave Williams a #1 hit.

87. “Good Enough” by Bobby Brown (1992)

Brown’s second album produced this L.A.&Babyface made slow jam.

86. “If I Had No Loot” by Tony! Toni! Tone! (1993)

New Jack pioneers Tony! Toni! Tone! made the summer of 1993 a memorable one with this banger.

85. “If You Love Me” by Brownstone (1995)

The girl group had their biggest hit in 1995 with this memorable groove.

84. “Sensitivity” by Ralph Tresvant (1990)

Possibly the least talked about member of New Edition, Tresvant nevertheless hit #1 on the charts with this one in 1990.

83. “Can We Talk” by Tevin Campbell (1993)

Tevin Campbell, originally a Prince discovery, hit #1 with this Babyface produced track.

82. “Nobody” by Keith Sweat (1996)

Sweat had a whole lot of hits in the 1980s and 1990s and this is one of best and biggest that spent three weeks at #1.

81. “BBD (I Thought It Was Me)” by Bell Biv Devoe (1990)

The spinoff from New Edition makes its first appearance here with their third single from their debut album.

And that’s all for now! I’ll have part two covering numbers 80-71 coming tomorrow!

Updates:

Numbers 80-71 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/04/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-80-71/