Month: June 2014

Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Movie Review

Looking over the landscape of movies over the past decade, it’s almost as if someone got Batman, Superman, Spiderman, The Incredible Hulk, James Bond, Jason Bourne, and others in a room together circa rougly 2004. And in their best Oprah voice, they exclaimed “YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! EVERYONE GETS A REBOOT!!!”

And so it continues with the character of Jack Ryan which casts Chris Pine (the rebooted Captain Kirk himself) as the fourth actor to play the role after Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck (soon to be rebooted Batman). Based on the works of Tom Clancy, this franchise got rolling in 1990 with The Hunt for Red October (Baldwin), continued with Ford in 1992’s Patriot Games and 1994’s Clear and Present Danger, and then onto 2003’s The Sum of All Fears with Affleck.

Like Sum of All Fears, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit is yet another origin story of the character and how he got involved in the CIA in the first place. Affleck’s origin story worked in part due to its arrival less than two years after the events of September 11. The terrorist attack scenes involving Baltimore hit close to home after the tragic real-life events in New York City, Washington D.C., and rural Pennsylvania. In this reboot, it’s the event of 9/11 itself that influences Jack to his military and eventual CIA service.

We open with Jack as a student abroad when 9/11 occurs and this leads him to enlist in the military and an eventual injury sustained while serving in Afghanistan. His stateside rehab puts him in contact with a med student (Keira Knightley) who will become his fiancee and also with a CIA official (Kevin Costner) who’s on a recruiting (SHADOW RECRUITING!) mission. Costner’s casting as the wily veteran mentor was interesting to me in the sense that I bet the actor was probably offered the role of Ryan when Hunt for Red October was being developed (just an educated guess).

Costner recruits Ryan to go deep undercover as a Wall Street analyst whose main job is to keep an eye out for terrorist financial transactions. Jack discovers a plot to crash the U.S. financial market and perhaps carry out even more dastradly attacks on the homeland. This nefarious plot is led by a Russian baddie portrayed by the film’s director himeslf, Kenneth Branagh.

There’s a nifty sequence in Shadow Recruit where Jack and his fiancee must team up at a dinner meeting to trick Branagh’s villainous character. This portion is well-constructed and sufficiently suspenseful. Unfortunately, the remainder of the picture feels awfully familiar and unremarkable. The truth is that it’s easy to see why audiences were ambivalent about this franchise reboot and why it only earned a middling $50 million stateside.

Like The Amazing Spider-Man in 2012, Shadow Recruit feels unnecessary. Also like that film, it’s an easy enough viewing experience and has its moments but that’s not quite enough to justify its existence. We’ve seen Batman and James Bond rebooted to terrific results in recent years. This reboot is one that is mildly entertaining but easily forgotten.

**1/2 (out of four)

Jersey Boys Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros Pictures attempts a summer counterprogramming move with Jersey Boys, Clint Eastwood’s adaptation of the hugely successful Broadway musical. The pic tells the story of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons group and the studio is hopeful that adults will turn their attention to this after a healthy heaping of comic book flicks, comedies, and action spectacles over the last few weeks.

With a cast of mostly unknowns save for Christopher Walken, Jersey Boys is mostly relying on its built-in audience who’ve seen the Broadway hit. We’ve certainly seen our share of pictures based on Broadway musicals that have been successful over recent years, including Chicago, Dreamgirls, Mamma Mia, and Les Miserables. On the other hand, Rock of Ages bombed two summers ago with only $38 million domestic.

The ceiling for Jersey Boys is around $25 million as I see it. If it gets beyond that, it would be quite a surprise. This type of adult fare is likely to succeed or fail based on how audiences like it and whether or not it receives small declines in subsequent weekends. I believe the likely scenario is for Jersey Boys to grow in the high teens or low 20s out of the gate.

Jersey Boys opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Think Like a Man Too prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

 

 

 

 

 

Edge of Tomorrow Movie Review

Over the past decade, Tom Cruise has concentrated mostly on sci-fi and action B movies in between the occasional Mission: Impossible franchise pic. Edge of Tomorrow resides on the higher end of the spectrum as far as quality. It does so mostly by featuring an aspect of Cruise that many of his latest films have not – the guy’s got a sense of humor and can use it well.

Tomorrow‘s plot is explained mostly by CNN anchors as the movie opens. An alien race called Mimics have wreaked havoc all over the world and Cruise’s character Major William Cage has the cushy position of explaining how things are going to talking heads on TV. He’s never actually seen battle and that’s perfectly OK with him. That is until he’s summoned by a general (Brendan Gleeson) to cover a real battle up close and when Cage refuses, he’s stripped of his rank and forced to actually fight in it.

This leads to a situation where Cage’s character is killed (no spoiler here) and the aliens blood is splattered on him. And that creates the Groundhog Day situation where he wakes up everyday on that battle morning until he figures out a way to prevail and eliminate the alien race. Emily Blunt is cast as a super soldier who is the only one that understands Cage’s unique predicament. If this all sounds a bit silly – I suppose it is. However, screenwriters Christopher McQuarrie, Jez Butterworth, and John-Henry Butterworth do a remarkable job at making this all make sense.

Most importantly, Cruise succeeds at bringing a sense of fun for most of Edge‘s running time. The script allows Cruise and Blunt to have some humorous interplay, particularly because its up to Blunt to “kill” him every time he screws up… which is often. Edge of Tomorrow doesn’t take itself too seriously for about two-thirds of its length. It’s only in the last act that it becomes humorless and therefore a more conventional and run-of-the-mill alien invasion flick.

Bill Paxton seems to be having a good time as a squadron leader and Noah Taylor turns up as a scientist who must explain important plot points to Cruise – just as he did over 12 years ago in Vanilla Sky. Blunt is certainly cast against type but she makes the most of her butt kicking role. Doug Liman’s direction is sturdy as you’d expect and The Bourne Identity director knows his well around an action sequence.

The so-so final act aside, Edge of Tomorrow stood out to me because Cruise seems to having more fun that he has in awhile. I would put it ahead of his latest lackluster fare such as Jack Reacher and Oblivion. If you’re looking for a decent summer popcorn watching experience, this fits the bill.

*** (out of four)

Non-Stop Movie Review

2008’s Taken began a new and profitable chapter in the career of Liam Neeson as a B movie action king and that trend barrels forward with Non-Stop.

The formula is simple: write a fairly absurd and mostly conventional action plot setup and let Neeson growl his way through it. The original Taken took moviegoers by surprise by showing just how effective the star could be in these roles as a total badass. Non-Stop casts Neeson as a federal air marshal who is struggling with alcoholism and depression after the death of his young daughter to cancer. If this seems like a convenient plot device for easy sympathy to the lead character – well there you have it.

On a long flight to London, Neeson begins receiving text messages that a passenger will be killed every 20 minutes unless $150 million is transferred to a bank account. The stakes get higher when it turns out that the account is registered to Neeson himself. Zoinks! This leads to everyone believing that he is the hijacker and he must prove them wrong by figuring out who the real culprit is.

Non-Stop features supporting work from Julianne Moore in a pretty thankless role as Neeson’s seatmate, “House of Cards” Corey Stull as an NYPD officer/passenger, and Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o as a flight attendant. While these faces are recognizable, this is Neeson’s show all the way. He manages to allow Non-Stop to be a mostly entertaining diversion for most of its running time.

That said, as the plot rolls along, it becomes clear that no explanation of the events taking place are likely to make any real sense. And when the true culprits are revealed, the reasoning behind their actions are a bit… well, unbelievable.

Non-Stop doesn’t belong in the same solid B movie category as the first Taken. It’s more in line with that picture’s sequel and Unknown. If you don’t carry on your brain to the proceedings, there’s some fun to be had just watching Neeson do his thing. This type of nonsensical flick would actually be the perfect waste of time pic to view on a long flight… if it wasn’t about a plot to blow up a long flight.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!

 

The Purge Movie Review

James DeMonaco’s The Purge is proof positive that an effective marketing campaign and creepy TV spots can lead some titles to gross far more than they should. Released last June, the pic opened to a way more than expected $34 million. Once audiences figured out its questionable quality, it only added $30 million more after its initial three day debut. Still, with a tiny $3 million budget it represented a financial windfall for Universal and a sequel is coming next month.

The Purge is predicated on a simple and pretty ludicrous premise. Set in 2022, the crime rate is down to 1% due mostly to a 12 hour period every March where there are no laws. People can feel free to murder anyone they want with no repercussion and this is designed to restore balance and let individuals play out their violent tendencies. It’s sort of like The Hunger Games where everyone can participate and not just watch. DeMonaco’s script does little to explain why this tactic is so successful and it takes a tremendous suspension of disbelief on the audience’s part to buy it.

Ethan Hawke (who has seen better horror flicks with Sinister) is a security system salesman with a wife (Lena Headey) and two kids who has undoubtedly seen financial benefit from all the purgin’. On the night of said Purge, events take place which make the family vulnerable to becoming victims of the big event. Scary looking individuals with Strangers type masks follow.

The largest problem with The Purge is that it attempts to walk a fine line between social satire and just being an all out B movie horror flick. It never quite decides which it would rather be so it succeeds at neither. DeMonaco’s script suggests there may have more background on why this Purge tactic was adopted by the U.S. government, but it never gets into explaining it. For most of the running time, this is just a run of the mill pic about terrorizers trying to kill the family and it’s not a terribly original or memorable one at that.

Performances are adequate if not particularly noteworthy for any of the actors. There’s “twists” involving the family’s neighbors that you’ll see coming from a mile away. One of the most positive aspects of The Purge is the brisk 85 minute running time. It’s watchable for sure, but little else.

There are moments few and far between where we see how The Purge could have been an intelligent commentary on violence in this country, but it never bothers to go there. What we’re left with is considerably less impressive.

** (out of four)

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction

Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum are back in action with this Friday’s 22 Jump Street, the sequel to the successful 2012 21 Jump Street, which is loosely based on the 1980s Johnny Depp TV series. The original made $35 million in its debut weekend on the way to a $138 million domestic gross. This is expected to outshine that.

While 22 Jump Street is highly unlikely to match what How to Train Your Dragon 2 earns next weekend, it should very easily settle for a second place premiere. Word of mouth has been terrific – most critics are saying it improves upon its predecessor and it stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. With costars Ice Cube, Dave Franco, and Rob Riggle back in the mix (and some reported celebrity cameos), audience anticipation and goodwill left over from the first should lead this to solid results for Columbia Pictures and MGM.

Both Hill and Tatum have seen their stars rise since 21 over two years ago. The big question to me is whether this posts the largest comedy opening so far in 2014. To do that it would need to debut higher than the $49 million of Neighbors from Hill’s buddy Seth Rogen. My prediction puts it just beyond that to claim victory.

22 Jump Street opening weekend prediction: $53.1 million

For my How to Train Your Dragon 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

How to Train Your Dragon 2 Box Office Prediction

With a surprisingly serious dearth of animated features for the kiddos this summer, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears poised to breathe some fire into the box office when it opens Friday. Opening ultra-wide on approximately 4,100 screens, Dragon 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original that grossed $43.7 million in its March debut on its way to a $217 million domestic haul. The numbers for the sequel are expected to be quite higher and its premiere could easily double the first weekend of its predecessor.

Featuring the voices of Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Kristen Wiig and Cate Blanchett – Dragon so far stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll surely be a candidate for Best Animated Feature come Oscar time. While summer 2013 saw a slew of animated features vying for attention, this season is different. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is really the only game in town with just Planes: Fire&Rescue coming in mid July. With a lack of the usual genre fare for family audiences, their demographic should flock to this.

A legit question is whether this could challenge Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million debut which still stands as 2014’s highest. I don’t think it’ll quite get there, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. I’ll predict it gets just past double what the first did out of the gate and it should have healthy legs in subsequent weekends.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million

For my 22 Jump Street prediction, click here:

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction