Month: February 2014

This Day in Movie History: February 11

Nine years ago Today in Movie History – February 11 – Will Smith’s romantic comedy Hitch got the thumbs up from audiences and many critics. After his sitcom days, Smith’s movie career mostly consisted of huge grossing action/sci-fi flicks until this came along. Hitch, which costarred Eva Mendes and Kevin James, opened to a terrific $43 million debut on its way to a domestic total of $179 million.

As for birthdays, Burt Reynolds turns 78 today. He was one of the biggest movie stars of the 1970s and his hits included Deliverance, The Longest Yard, Gator, Smokey and the Bandit, Semi-Tough, The End, and Hooper. His successes would continue into the early 80s with The Cannonball Run, Sharky’s Machine, and The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas. He would experience a movie career resurgence with his Oscar-nominated turn in 1997’s Boogie Nights and appear in the Adam Sandler led Longest Yard remake in 2005.

Jennifer Aniston is 45 today. By far, Aniston has had the best movie career among the “Friends” cast. Her success from the sitcom led to starring in late 90s rom coms like Picture Perfect and The Objection of My Affection. In 1999, she would costar in the now cult classic Office Space. Notable films since are many – The Good Girl, Bruce Almighty, Along Came Polly, The Break-Up, Marley & Me, Horrible Bosses, and We’re the Millers.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between Smokey and Rachel:

Burt Reynolds was in The Longest Yard with Adam Sandler

Adam Sandler was in Just Go With It with Jennifer Aniston

And that’s today – February 11 – in Movie History!

2014 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor Prediction

Tonight I continue on with my Oscar predictions in the six major categories as to who/what I think will win. A couple of days ago, I forecasted Supporting Actress and predicted a win for 12 Years a Slave‘s Lupita Nyong’o. We move forward with Supporting Actor. Let us recap the nominees:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

This category was of interest due to the high number of people who could have been nominated. Those mentioned in prediction circles that didn’t make the final cut include James Gandolfini in Enough Said, Daniel Bruhl in Rush, Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks and Will Forte in Nebraska.

While the net was wide for could have been honored with a nomination, the list is considerably shorter as to who will win. And that list pretty much comes down to one name: Jared Leto. The actor/musician’s work in Dallas Buyers Club represented a major movie comeback for him and he’s been rewarded with just about precursor there is – Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and several regional critics associations.

If anyone else were to take home the gold statue, it would be a huge upset. I see Fassbender as the only one with a remote shot at the upset, but Leto is easily one of the safest bets in the top categories.

Predicted winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

I’ll be back soon with my prediction for Best Actress!

Box Office Predictions: February 14-17

The long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend arrives with four new pictures looking for some audience lovin’. They are the 80s remake Robocop (out Wednesday), 80s remake About Last Night, 80s remake Endless Love, and Winter’s Tale. The latter three are all competing for the Valentine’s Day crowd while Robocop will skewer towards the dudes. You can find my prediction posts on all four here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

This quartet of flicks could all post decent numbers, but the story of the weekend is still likely to be The Lego Movie as it enters weekend #2. The animated pic opened to a massive $69 million generating the second largest February debut of all time. With terrific word-of-mouth, its gargantuan grosses should continue over the holiday frame.

Last weekend’s #2 The Monuments Men is likely to also experience the typical smallish decline that pictures experience on this particular holiday weekend.

I’ll branch my predictions out to the Top 6 and here’s the predictions for the weekend. Please note my predictions are for the Friday to Monday frame due to the holiday:

1. The Lego Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.2 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million

3. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million ($36.8M predicted for Wednesday to Monday)

4. Winter’s Tale

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

5. Endless Love

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

6. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

As already mentioned, The Lego Movie put together a HUGE BLOCKbuster opening (I’m sorry). Opening with $69 million, it went way beyond my $54.2M estimate. Coincidentally, my current prediction for the film’s second weekend is exactly what I predicted for its first.

Despite mostly negative reviews, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men was able to its translate its considerable star power to a solid $22 million debut, above my $16.1M prediction. I wrongly thought its weak reviews would hurt it and it didn’t.

As for the rest of the top five, Ride Along held up better than my prediction with $9.5 million (I said $6.9M) for third while Frozen was fourth with $6.8 million – right on pace with my $6.6M projection. Lone Survivor, which I didn’t predict for the top five, was fifth with $5.5 million.

The real loser over the weekend was Vampire Academy, which totally bombed with only $3.9 million – considerably below my $8.4M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the weekend with final results Tuesday because of the long weekend!

This Day in Movie History: February 10

19 years ago Today in Movie History – February 10 – Billy Madison debuted in theaters and kick started “SNL” star Adam Sandler’s profitable movie career. It would debut at #1 with a decent $6.6 million on its way to a $25.5 million domestic gross. However, Sandler’s back to school comedy would go onto become a massive cult favorite. Since Madison, Sandler has headlined 14 pictures that grossed over $100 million stateside with a lifetime total of over $2 billion in earnings.

As for birthdays, Laura Dern turns 47 today. The actress and daughter of Bruce Dern was first seen in Mask and David Lynch’s groundbreaking Blue Velvet. She would continue her work with Lynch alongside Nicolas Cage in Wild at Heart, earn an Oscar nomination in 1991 for Rambling Rose, and costar in the giant dino hit Jurassic Park. Since then, Dern has mostly popped up indie flicks and the occasional mainstream entry. They include A Perfect World, Citizen Ruth, October Sky, We Don’t Live Here Anymore, and her acclaimed turn as Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris in HBO’s “Recount”.

Elizabeth Banks is the big 4-0 today. Known mostly for comedies, Banks has turned up in numerous films over the past few years and she first gained major notice as freaky Beth in The 40 Yr. Old Virgin. Prior to that, she was seen in the Spider-Man trilogy, Catch Me If You Can, and Seabiscuit. Lately, she’s been a part of the massively successful Hunger Games franchise that will continue into 2015. Other notable pictures: Zack and Miri Make a Porno, W., Role Models, and Pitch Perfect. It was just announced that Banks will make her directorial debut with the Pitch Perfect sequel, in which she’ll also appear.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two ladies:

Laura Dern was in Little Fockers with Ben Stiller

Ben Stiller was in Tower Heist with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Meet Dave with Elizabeth Banks

And that’s today – February 10 – in Movie History!

 

This Day in Movie History: February 9

13 years ago Today in Movie History – February 9 – the eagerly awaited sequel Hannibal debuted in theaters. It was the follow-up to 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs, which was an instant classic and won the Academy Award for Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Silence director Jonathan Demme and costar Jodie Foster chose not to return and it was Ridley Scott who stepped in behind the camera with Julianne Moore assuming the role of Clarice Starling. Anthony Hopkins would return to the title role and that was enough for the picture to open with $58 million – which at the time was the third largest debut of all time. Its domestic run topped out at $165 million. While crowds turned out, they didn’t necessarily love what they saw. Both audiences and critical reaction was mixed and trended toward negative as it currently stands at 39% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, if you want to see Ray Liotta with half his head removed and a truly bizarre performance from Gary Oldman, this is your movie. Hopkins would return to the signature role one more time less than two years later in Red Dragon.

As for birthdays, Charlie Day is 38 today. He’s best known for his work on TV’s cult hit “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” but broke into movies in a big way with 2011’s Horrible Bosses. A sequel to that is on the way this year. Last year, Day costarred in Pacific Rim and his voice can be heard in this weekend’s blockbuster The Lego Movie.

Tom Hiddleston is 33 today. He’s garnered rave reviews for his villainous turn as Loki in both Thor flicks and The Avengers. Other notables pictures include War Horse and The Deep Blue Sea and Hiddleston will soon appear in Muppets Most Wanted.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two actors:

Charlie Day was in Horrible Bosses with Kevin Spacey

Kevin Spacey was in A Time To Kill with Samuel L. Jackson

Samuel L. Jackson was in The Avengers with Tom Hiddleston

And that’s today – February 9 – in Movie History!

Endless Love Box Office Prediction

I’ve already covered two 80s remakes (Robocop and About Last Night) that will be released Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend and now we move to the third – Endless Love. This one updates the 1981 Brooke Shields flick that today is mostly known for its title song sung by Lionel Richie and Diana Ross. In this case, blogging last about this movie may be indeed because it’ll make the least.

Alex Pettyfer from Magic Mike and Gabriella Wilde from The Three Musketeers headline the romantic drama. The fact that it’s being released on Valentine’s Day will only help it grosses, but it’s worth noting that Winter’s Tale and About Last Night are also making a play for the V Day crowd. I expect both of them to outdo Love.

Endless Love should easily get beyond double digits for the four day weekend, but anything over mid teens would be higher than I can envision.

Endless Love opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

Winter’s Tale Box Office Prediction

This weekend’s romantic drama Winter’s Tale is the sole picture of the quartet coming out over President’s Day that isn’t based on a 1980s flick. It is based on a novel from Mark Helprin that came out in the 80s though. The period piece’s cast includes Colin Farrell, Jennifer Connelly, and Russell Crowe and comes from Akiva Goldsman, making his feature directorial debut. He’s well-known in Hollywood for his screenplays and they include A Time to Kill, A Beautiful Mind, Cinderella Man, and The Da Vinci Code.

Warner Bros. is definitely hoping the pic’s Valentine’s Day release date brings in couples. And I’ll predict that the release date will certainly help. Anything over $20 million would be considered quite a feat and it wouldn’t shock me if it got there (it has a smallish $46M budget). However, with direct competition from both About Last Night and Endless Love, I believe a more likely scenario is a debut in the high teens.

Winter’s Tale opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (Friday to Monday)

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

About Last Night Box Office Prediction

The President’s Day cavalcade of 80s remakes continues on with About Last Night, which updates the 1986 romance that starred Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Jim Belushi, and Elizabeth Perkins. Perfectly positioned with a Valentine’s Day release – it will face competition from other romantic themed pictures Winter’s Tale and Endless Love, which I’ll get to later today.

About Last Night, however, has a pretty big ace up its sleeve in the form of Kevin Hart who couldn’t be more popular right now with the massive success of last month’s Ride Along. Costars include Michael Ealy, Regina Hall, and Joy Bryant. The combination of Hart and its well-timed release leads me to believe this could open very big, perhaps even surpassing Robocop – another high-profile 80s reboot. For comparisons sake, it could open similar to what The Best Man Holiday did in November with $30 million.

The four day holiday gross may push About Last Night beyond that number by a bit. This film should especially do well with African-American audiences, who made up 87% of Holiday‘s opening weekend crowd. Bottom line: Kevin Hart’s run of box office fortune in 2014 should continue here.

About Last Night opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million (Friday to Monday gross)

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

Robocop Box Office Prediction

It’s been over 20 years since the character has appeared on screen, but that will change Wednesday when the Robocop reboot hits theaters. A remake of the 1987 action hit, director Jose Padilha takes over the franchise with relative unknown Joel Kinnaman taking on the title role that Peter Weller made famous over a quarter century ago.

While Kinnaman isn’t well-known, there are plenty of familiar faces in supporting roles including Samuel L. Jackson, Gary Oldman, Michael Keaton, Abbie Cornish, and Jackie Earle Haley. MGM and Columbia are clearly hoping they have a worldwide hit on their hands with the pic’s large $130 million budget. Reviews have been mixed so far with a current rating of 48% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Robocop launches on Wednesday so my prediction will reflect my feeling for both its Friday to Monday gross over the President’s Day weekend and its total six day haul. On this same weekend last year, A Good Day to Die Hard took in nearly $29 million over the four day with almost $37 million when you factor in its Thursday debut. Robocop has an extra day to bring in the money, but I feel this may open with slightly smaller results. It doesn’t have the star power of Bruce Willis in his most famous role, but there certainly is a highly familiarity of many moviegoers with the source material.

Robocop opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million (Friday to Monday), $34.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

2014 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress Prediction

With the Oscars less than a month away – today I begin my picks on who will win in the six major categories at the ceremony. There will be a final round of predictions for all the races – probably two days prior to the telecast. We begin with Best Supporting Actress. Let’s recap the nominees, shall we?

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

The precursor awards have been split among Lawrence and Nyong’o. The Golden Globes, New York Film Critics, and National Society of Film Critics went with Lawrence while the SAG Awards and Critics Choice bestowed Nyong’o with the honor.

Simply put, this race appears to be down to those two ladies. A win for Hawkins, Roberts, or Squibb would be a major upset. Last year, Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook and a victory for her here would pull off the rare feat of an actor winning two years in a row. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago with back-to-back wins for Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump.

American Hustle received nominations in all four acting categories and Lawrence’s inclusion represents the best shot at a win. That said, I believe the slight momentum is on the side of Nyong’o. Her nomination also represents the greatest chance for 12 Years to get a win in the acting races. From a statistics point of view – I’d put it at about 55% Lupita, 45% J-Law at this juncture and we’ll see if that remains the case in my final picks a few weeks from now.

Predicted Winner for Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Next up: Best Supporting Actor Prediction