Month: February 2014

2014 Oscars: Best Actor Prediction

Tonight on the blog brings me to my prediction for Best Actor and, so far, this is the most difficult one. While Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress are safe bets and I picked Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress as a slight favorite over Jennifer Lawrence – the Actor race boasts four performers who could possibly win. Let’s recap them:

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Mr. Bale was a bit of a surprise nominee and he’s the one that I see very unlikely to emerge victorious. As for the others – a 12 Years sweep could reward Ejiofor, though he’s won no major precursors. Same goes for Dern, though the Academy could pick him to honor his decades long career. As a side note – 2013 was unquestionably a strong year for lead actor roles. In lesser years – Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, Robert Redford in All is Lost, or Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler would have been nominated.

The likely scenario is a battle between Mr. DiCaprio and Mr. McConaughey. With his acclaimed Dallas Buyers Club role, McConaughey is the frontrunner. He’s also won the lion’s share of precursor awards. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had a truly impressive career resurgence over the past couple of years.

With all that said, I have a gut feeling that DiCaprio’s chances are improving. Many of his performances have received raves yet he hasn’t taken home a gold statue. His work in Wall Street is among his most acclaimed performances and voters might feel like it’s his time.

While the argument for Leo is strong, it just isn’t enough for me (at this point) to go against McConaughey – though I’ll reserve my right to change picks in my final predictions post in a couple of weeks.

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

This Day in Movie History: February 17

30 years ago Today in Movie History – February 17 – Kevin Bacon danced his way into the hearts of moviegoers in Footloose. The picture was an unexpected smash grossing $80 million domestically. Its soundtrack was equally successful featuring Kenny Loggins’ title hit – as well as “Let’s Hear It For The Boy” by Deniece Williams and “Almost Paradise” by Mike Reno and Ann Wilson. A remake would debut in 2010.

As for birthdays, Cleveland Browns legend Jim Brown is 78 today. While he’s surely known best for his sports achievements, Mr. Brown has had quite a film career. He costarred in 1967’s The Dirty Dozen and some blaxpoitation titles in the 70s like Slaughter and Black Gunn. More recent appearances include The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mars Attacks!, and Any Given Sunday.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt is 33 today. He became known as a youngster on the hit sitcom “3rd Rock from the Sun”. In recent years, his film career exploded with pictures including Brick, (500) Days of Summer, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Inception, 50/50, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, and Lincoln. He made his directorial last fall with Don Jon and will soon appear in the Sin City sequel.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Jim Brown was in The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger

Arnold Schwarzenegger was in The Expendables 2 with Bruce Willis

Bruce Willis was in Looper with Joseph Gordon-Levitt

And that’s today – February 17 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: February 16

Seven years ago Today in Movie History – February 16 – Ghost Rider got off to a hot start at the box office. Mark Steven Johnson, director of Daredevil, was behind the camera with Nicolas Cage in the role of Johnny Blaze. The comic book adaptation took in an impressive $52 million over President’s Day weekend and earned a total of $115 million domestically. That was enough to earn it a less successful sequel in 2012.

As for birthdays, rapper/actor Ice-T is 56 today. He broke out in film in 1991 with New Jack City. His other notable films include Trespass, Surviving the Game, and Johnny Mnemonic. His most known acting role has been on TV with “Law&Order: SVU”.

Elizabeth Olsen is 25 today. The younger sister of the Olsen twins, Elizabeth garnered rave reviews for her performance in 2011’s indie flick Martha Marcy May Marlene and has since appeared in Kill Your Darlings and Oldboy. There’s no doubt she’s about to become much more known with upcoming parts in the Godzilla reboot and summer 2015’s Avengers sequel.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Ice-T was in Trespass with William Sadler

William Sadler was in Die Hard 2 with Bruce Willis

Bruce Willis was in Pulp Fiction with Samuel L. Jackson

Samuel L. Jackson was in Oldboy with Elizabeth Olsen

And that’s today – February 16 – in Movie History!

Pompeii Box Office Prediction

The $100 million budgeted gladiator epic Pompeii arrives in theaters Friday and this begs an obvious question: they invested $100 million dollars on this!?!?!

Director Paul W.S. Anderson is known for the Resident Evil franchise and here his attention turns to 79 A.D. for this action fest. The cast includes Kit Harrington from “Games of Thrones”, Emily Browning, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Kiefer Sutherland. The marketing campaign has been pretty muted for a picture of this budget. While FilmDistrict is maybe hoping for 300 type numbers, I don’t think Pompeii has a shot of that. Perhaps its 3D ticket prices could help, but I’m skeptical of that as well.

Pompeii has the look of a high-priced flop to this movie blogger. It could surprise me with high teens or beyond, but my gut says low teens.

Pompeii opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my prediction on 3 Days to Kill, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

 

3 Days to Kill Box Office Prediction

All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.

Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.

3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my prediction on Pompeii, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: February 15

23 years ago Today in Movie History – February 15 – Jonathan Demme’s The Silence of the Lambs debuted in theaters and would earn its reputation as one of the greatest thrillers of all time. The picture would take in $13.7 million in its debut weekend and eventually earn $130 million domestically. Oscar voters would shower Lambs the following year with Best Picture, Director, Actor (Anthony Hopkins), and Actress (Jodie Foster). Even though he was only onscreen for 16 minutes, Hopkins’ performance as Hannibal Lecter would represent one of the most memorable screen villains in history. Sequels would follow years later with Hannibal, Red Dragon, and Hannibal Rising.

As for birthdays, today would have marked Chris Farley’s big 5-0. The performer had a fantastic run on “Saturday Night Live” before translating his stardom into film with Tommy Boy, Black Sheep, and Beverly Hills Ninja. Farley died of a drug overdose in 1997.

Jane Seymour is 63 today. Known more for her extensive TV credits, she was a Bond girl alongside Roger Moore in 1973’s Live and Let Die. More recently she was Christopher Walken’s excitable wife in the 2005 hit comedy Wedding Crashers.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Chris Farley was in Wayne’s World 2 with Christopher Walken

Christopher Walken was in Wedding Crashers with Jane Seymour

And that’s today – February 15 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: February 14

22 years ago on This Valentine’s Day in Movie History – February 14 – Wayne’s World debuted in theaters and provided Mike Myers with his first comedy smash. Based on the wildly popular SNL sketches featuring Wayne and Garth (Dana Carvey), Wayne’s World would earn $18 million in its first weekend on its way to a $121 million domestic haul. A less successful sequel would come the following year and Myers, of course, would get another huge franchise years later with the Austin Powers flicks and then the Shrek pictures.

As for birthdays, Simon Pegg is 44 today. A favorite of director JJ Abrams, Pegg has appearared in the last two Mission: Impossible features and in the current Star Trek franchise. And there’s also his acclaimed comedic collaborations with director Edgar Wright – Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, and last year’s The World’s End.

Freddie Highmore is 22 today. You may know him best for his appearances as a child actor working with Johnny Depp in both Finding Neverland and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. He’s currently playing Norman Bates in A&E’s “Bates Motel” series.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Simon Pegg was in Mission: Impossible III with Philip Seymour Hoffman

Philip Seymour Hoffman was in A Late Quartet with Dustin Hoffman

Dustin Hoffman was in Finding Neverland with Freddie Highmore

And that’s today – February 14 – in Movie History. And Happy Valentine’s Day!

2014 Oscars: Best Actress Prediction

And now we continue with my predictions for winners in the six major categories for the Oscars in early March. I’ve already weighed in with my Supporting predictions for Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. Tonight I move forward with Best Actress. Let’s recap the five nominees:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

For awhile it appeared that this race could be a tight one between Blanchett and Bullock. However, all major awards precursors have bestowed Blanchett with their awards for her work in Woody Allen’s film. To say the least, the momentum has swung for her in a big way.

There’s been some chatter that the controversies Mr. Allen finds himself in could negatively impact her ability to win. Simply put, I’m not buying it. If anyone were to win other than Blanchett it would constitute quite an upset and I don’t see it happening. This prediction, like Leto for Supporting Actor, is an easy one to make.

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

 

This Day in Movie History: February 13

Just in time for Valentine’s Day 10 years ago on This Day in Movie History – February 13 – Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore once again teamed up for the rom com 50 First Dates. The pair had previously had a hit together six years prior with The Wedding Singer and Dates would continue that streak. The film opened with $39.8 million and went to gross $120 million domestically. The third teaming of Sandler and Barrymore will come out this May with Blended.

As for birthdays, Stockard Channing turns 70 today. She’ll go down in film history as Rizzo in 1978’s Grease, in which she played that high school student at age 34. TV watchers may know her best as First Lady Abbey Bartlet on “The West Wing”. Other notable film roles over the years include Six Degrees of Separation, Up Close&Personal, The First Wives Club, and Practical Magic.

Mena Suvari in 35 today. She became known to moviegoers in the American Pie franchise and as the teenage object of Kevin Spacey’s affection in the Oscar winning American Beauty. Other projects include The Musketeer and Beauty Shop.

As for Six Degrees of Separation (hey- Stockard Channing was in that!) between them:

Stockard Channing was in Anything Else with Jason Biggs

Jason Biggs was in American Pie with Mena Suvari

And that’s today – February 13 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: February 12

21 years ago Today in Movie History – February 12 – the now classic comedy Groundhog Day debuted in theaters. One of the greatest uses of the brilliant talent that is Bill Murray, the film debuted at #1 with $14.6 million on its way to a $70 million domestic gross. The term “Groundhog Day” has entered the cultural vernacular as a term meaning something repeating itself. I consider it to be one of best comedies of all time.

As for birthdays, Josh Brolin is 46 today. The actor became known to filmgoers in 1985’s The Goonies. Things were quiet were for awhile following that but in the 21st century he had a massive career resurgence. His notable pictures include Grindhouse, No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, W., Milk, True Grit, Men in Black 3, Oldboy, and Labor Day.

Christina Ricci is 34 today. She became known as Wednesday Addams in the two Addams Family features. She would go onto headline kids pics such as Casper and That Darn Cat. She would soon transition into more serious fare including The Ice Storm, Buffalo ’66, The Opposite of Sex, Sleepy Hollow, Monster, and Black Snake Moan.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Josh Brolin was in Oldboy with Samuel L. Jackson

Samuel L. Jackson was in Black Snake Moan with Christina Ricci

And that’s today – February 12 – in Movie History!