Month: January 2014

Lone Survivor Box Office Prediction

Peter Berg’s war drama Lone Survivor starring Mark Wahlberg hits theaters this Friday and it will attempt to reach solid box office numbers like Zero Dark Thirty did in this same weekend just last year.

The picture focuses on a true-life tale of U.S. Navy SEALS during a mission in Afghanistan with Wahlberg leading a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana, and Taylor Kitsch. It was released in limited format in December to qualify for Oscar consideration and while reviews have been mostly positive (67% on Rotten Tomatoes), it appears unlikely to receive nominations.

As mentioned, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty opened on this very weekend a year ago and performed well with a $24.4 million debut. That film had a couple of things in its favor that Survivor does not: it was considered a major awards contender and it focused on a mission that audiences were extremely familiar with – the hunt for Bin Laden.

On the other hand, unlike Zero Dark, this has a big star headlining it whose action-related pics generally open well. In fact, on this same weekend two years ago, Wahlberg’s Contraband made $28.5 million over its four-day debut (it was Martin Luther King weekend that year). Last year, both Pain and Gain and 2 Guns managed to post openings north of $20 million.

There will be competition for male audiences with The Legend of Hercules, but I expect this to win out. My prediction reflects a feeling that it’ll debut a bit below Zero Dark Thirty, though not by much. Anything below $20 million would be a bit disappointing and this could go as big as high 20s. I’m sticking with low 20s though.

Lone Survivor opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: Jan 3-5

A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.

This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.

Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.

Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.

Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.

Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.

And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.

This Day in Movie History: January 4

This Day in Movie History – January 4 – saw Jason Reitman’s Juno begin to develop into an unexpected huge hit six years ago. The comedy drama, with a script from Diablo Cody, starred Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, Allison Janney, and JK Simmons. The teen pregnancy tale really connected with audiences and critics and earned an incredible $143 million domestically (its budget was around $7 million). It received four Oscar nominations – Best Picture, Director, Actress (Page), and Original Screenplay (which it won). Reitman has gone onto to direct a follow-up picture that received Academy attention, 2009’s Up in the Air, as well as Young Adult and the upcoming Labor Day.

As for birthdays, Julia Ormond is 49 today. She broke out in the mid 90s with high-profile roles in Legends of the Fall, Sabrina, and First Knight. Things slowed down for awhile, but recently she’s had success with an Emmy winning role in 2010’s Temple Grandin and roles in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and My Week with Marilyn.

Charlyne Yi is 28 today. The comedic actress was a regular on the FOX series “House” and she co-wrote and starred alongside Michael Cera in the 2009 rom com Paper Heart. Judd Apatow cast her in Knocked Up and This Is 40 and other credits include Semi-Pro and All About Steve.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two ladies:

Julia Ormond was in Sabrina with Greg Kinnear and Harrison Ford

Greg Kinnear and Harrison Ford were in Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with Will Ferrell

Will Ferrell was in Semi-Pro with Charlyne Yi

And that’s today – January 4 – in Movie History!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Picks for Early January

And we’re off with my next to last round of Oscar predictions before they’re announced on Thursday, January 16th. The plan is to do my final predictions, most likely either on Sunday the 12th or Monday the 13th. These new picks reflect changes in four of the six top categories. Let’s get to it shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I’ve stayed consistent with predicting that nine movies will get nominated. The change here is that I’m including Dallas Buyer’s Club for the first time as I believe it’s gotten enough precursor momentum to get in. That means I had to take something out and Saving Mr. Banks has been dropped. As I see it, the race is still a battle between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity for the win with American Hustle as a possible spoiler.

Predictions:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyer’s Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

One change here: I believe the polarizing reaction to The Wolf of Wall Street might leave Martin Scorsese out in this competitive category. So he’s out and Spike Jonze, riding a wave of momentum for Her, is in. Like Picture, this race should come down to Slave‘s Steve McQueen and Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuaron for the victory with yet again Hustle‘s Russell as possible spoiler.

Predictions:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Spike Jonze, Her

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

This is seriously such a loaded category. In any other year, I’d be predicting Christian Bale in American Hustle, Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler or Joaquin Phoenix in Her. None of them make the cut. Conventional wisdom is that this is a six man race and only five make the cut. Last round of predictions, I had Tom Hanks’ work in Captain Phillips left out, but now he’s back in. This came down to a decision between whether to leave out Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street or Robert Redford in All is Lost. For the first time in my predictions, it’s Redford that I’ve got drawing the short straw. I believe Chiwetel Ejiofor, Bruce Dern, or Matthew McConaughey could win.

Predictions:

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction wise, this category has remained the most stable and I have no changes this round either. As for who will win, Cate Blanchett is emerging as the clear favorite though Sandra Bullock has a shot.

Predictions:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is likely the most unpredictable category that is capable of producing a surprise and my new picks reflect that. Jared Leto is the frontrunner to win and Michael Fassbender appears a lock for nomination. After that, all bets are off. I’m taking out Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. I’m keeping in my Bradley Cooper for American Hustle prediction. Additions to my list: Daniel Bruhl, who’s picked up momentum for his role in Rush. As for the fifth slot, it could have been Hanks, Hill, the late James Gandolfini in Enough Said, Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, or Harrison Ford in 42. Like I said, I believe a real surprise nomination could surface here and that’s why I’m picking former SNL alum Will Forte in Nebraska.

Predictions:

Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Will Forte, Nebraska

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the lead actress race, I’ve got no changes to report here either. This should still come down to Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence for the win.

Predictions:

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

I’ll be back with last round of nomination picks soon enough!

This Day in Movie History: January 3

Eleven years ago today – January 3 – in Movie History is when Rob Marshall’s Chicago expanded nationwide and began a successful late run at Oscar glory. For the calendar year 2002, Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was looked at as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Chicago, the big screen adaptation of Bob Fosse’s Broadway hit, changed the dynamic by grossing $170 million domestically. It would go on to win Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Catherine Zeta-Jones), and earn nominations for Renee Zellwegger for Actress, John C. Reilly for Supporting Actor, and Queen Latifah for Supporting Actor. The film’s male lead, Richard Gere, would not earn a nomination.

As for birthdays, Mel Gibson turns 58 today. The Aussie star (though he was born in the U.S. and lived here until age 12) is known equally for his work in front of and behind the camera. He’s had two successful film franchises with Mad Max and Lethal Weapon. Mr. Gibson has had a number of other box office successes including The Year of Living Dangerously, Hamlet, Maverick, Ransom, What Women Want, and Signs, to name a few. Additionally, his second directorial feature, 1995’s Braveheart, would win Best Picture and Gibson would take Best Director. His directorial success continued with 2004’s The Passion of the Christ, which earned $370 million domestically. For the past decade, Gibson has been talked about more for his shaky personal troubles and his film career has suffered with forgettable fare like Edge of Darkness and Machete Kills. He will be costarring next year as the main villain in The Expendables 3.

Veteran actor Robert Loggia is 84 today. He’s appeared in supporting parts in a whole bunch of pics over the last several decades but you likely know him best from two very different 80s flicks: as drug lord Frank Lopez in Brian De Palma’s Scarface and Mr. MacMillan, toy company owner and Tom Hanks’ boss in Big. Other notables film appearances: An Officer and a Gentleman, Prizzi’s Honor, Jagged Edge, Over the Top, and Independence Day.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Mel Gibson was in Tequila Sunrise with Michelle Pfeiffer

Michelle Pfeiffer was in Scarface with Robert Loggia

And that’s today – January 3 – in Movie History!

 

This Day in Movie History: January 2

This day in Movie History – January 2 – Peter Jackson’s final installment in his Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, would top the box office for the third weekend in a row, grossing over $28 million. This gave it $290M in just three weeks and it would end its domestic run at $377M, out grossing its two predecessors. King would go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. And the more things change, the more they stay the same. Exactly a decade later, the director’s second Tolkien trilogy The Hobbit is scoring similar feats. The second installment in the series The Desolation of Smaug is currently #1 for its third weekend, though its taken in approximately $100 million less in the same time frame as King did.

As for birthdays, Tia Carrere turns 47 today. You may remember her best as Mike Myers’ love interest in 1992’s Wayne’s World and its sequel the following year. Her exposure from those hits led her to starring alongside such heavy hitters as Sean Connery in 1993’s Rising Sun and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1994’s True Lies. And then… well she went from Connery and Arnold to Pauly Shore and Jon Lovitz. Her mid 90s filmography included Jury Duty with Shore and High School High with Lovitz. Her movie career never recovered, but she did recently last five weeks on Donald Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” (!).

Cuba Gooding Jr. is 46 today. He’s another performer to have hit it big in the 90s and then see his career fizzle. His big break came with 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and that led to roles in A Few Good Men, Judgment Night, and Outbreak. In 1996, Cuba won Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role as Rod Tidwell in Cameron Crowe’s Jerry Maguire. It looked good for him after that and he appeared in high profile pics including As Good As It Gets, What Dreams May Come, and Men of Honor. By the early 2000s, things had taken a turn for the worse when Gooding starred in bombs including Snow Dogs and Boat Trip. Recently, however, he’s had a decent comeback with supporting roles in movies like American Gangster, Red Tails, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Tia Carrere was in True Lies with Jamie Lee Curtis

Jamie Lee Curtis was in Trading Places with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Norbit with Cuba Gooding Jr.

And that’s today – January 2 – in Movie History!

 

This Day in Movie History: January 1

On this day – January 1, also known as New Year’s Day, in Movie History, Avatar would continue to stun box office observers four years ago. Entering its third weekend of release, the James Cameron sci-fi epic would dip only 9% from weekend two and take in $68.5 million for the New Year’s weekend. In just three weeks, the film had grossed an astonishing $352 million and it was in weekend #3 that the possibility of it becoming the highest domestic grosser of all time started to seem real. It would end up getting there with a total domestic gross of $760 million and that meant Cameron beat his own record (Titanic previously held the record for 12 years before Avatar came along).

As for New Year’s babies, Morris Chestnut is 44 today. He broke out in the film scene with his role in 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and just recently appeared in the hit sequel The Best Man Holiday. Other notable roles: The Inkwell, Under Siege 2: Dark Territory, Two Can Play That Game, Think Like a Man, and Identity Thief.

Frank Langella is 75 today. Mr. Langella has appeared in many features over the past several decades. He received an Oscar nomination as the President in Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon. Other notable roles: Diary of a Mad Housewife, The Twelve Chairs, 1979’s Dracula, Dave, Superman Returns, Good Night and Good Luck, and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Morris Chestnut was in Boyz N The Hood with Laurence Fishburne

Laurence Fishburne was in Bad Company with Frank Langella

And that’s today – January 1 – in Movie History!

Movie Perfection: A Coffee Break in Heat

The coffee shop scene in Michael Mann’s brilliant 1995 crime thriller Heat will forever be remembered in film history as the first time Robert De Niro and Al Pacino shared screen time together. However, the more times you watch the picture and watch that scene, you realize it’s important for other reasons.

I described Heat as a crime thriller. More than that, it’s a movie about work and family. Specifically, it’s about people who are excellent at their chosen fields of profession and how it hinders their ability at a stable family life. You see it in Pacino’s character, Vincent Hanna, who is terrific at catching criminals and bad at holding a marriage together. You see it in De Niro’s character, Neil McCauley, who is a master thief who must sacrifice any meaningful relationships to do his job. You see it with McCauley’s crew, most notably Val Kilmer’s Chris Shiherlis who gets away at the end, but must leave his wife and young child forever in order to escape.

This all comes to a head in that coffee shop scene where Vincent and Neil casually discuss the situation they find themselves in. Vincent knows that Neil is looking to pull off one last huge score and he’s determined to not let it happen. Neil feels the same way – nothing will get in the way of him doing his job. The pair make it clear that they enjoy their careers – one tasked to stop criminals and the other being the criminal – and that they, frankly, really aren’t good at anything else. Neil and Vincent know their strengths. They’re going to keep doing what they do and lets the chips fall where they may. They both know and have known for some time that everything else besides their work must fall to the wayside, including their families and significant others.

Heat is a film about cops and robbers, but one like no other that delves deep into their psyches. We see example after example after how their thought process hurts their personal lives. At the end of the day, though, it’s something they’ve learned to accept. And the coffee shop scene illustrates that point with great dialogue that develops the richly written characters of Pacino and De Niro further.

Putting these two actors together, two of the best in American history, is reason enough for it to make movie history. It’s the amazing screenplay and willingness of director Mann to take Heat to a higher level of art than practically any “crime thriller”, though, that makes the scene Movie Perfection. And, of course, Pacino and De Niro are absolutely incredible in it.