2014 Oscar Nominations: Todd’s Reaction

This morning the Oscar nominations rolled in and it’s time to see just how well (or not) I did in each of the categories. Let’s get to the races and I’ll provide some commentary on them as well!

BEST PICTURE

Todd’s Picks: 8/9

As its been in the past two years, nine pictures made the cut out of a possible five to ten. I correctly selected American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, 12 Years a Slave, and The Wolf of Wall Street. Just one incorrect guess: I predicted the Coen Brothers Inside Llewyn Davis over Philomena. So… not too shabby. As it stands, I would still say 12 Years a Slave is the frontrunner. However, in my past predictions, I’ve identified Gravity as the potential spoiler. While that’s still the case, I would add American Hustle as being on equal footing with it for a “surprise” win, due to its even better than expected showing today.

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd’s Picks: 5/5 (!)

Last year there were tons of surprises in this category when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) were shockingly shut out. I only ended up going 2/5 in Best Director in 2012. This time around, I got ’em all: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity, Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, David O. Russell for American Hustle, and Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street. Cuaron and McQueen should fight it out for the win with Russell as a spoiler.

BEST ACTOR

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

For months, the conventional thinking was that six actors – Bruce Dern, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey, Robert Redford – were vying for five spots. Turns out we should have called it a seven man race as Christian Bale’s work in American Hustle got a fairly surprising nod. Dern (Nebraska), DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), and McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club) also made the cut and it was Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Redford (All is Lost) left out. In my view, Bale has no chance of winning but the other four legitimately do. McConaughey is what you would currently call the soft frontrunner.

BEST ACTRESS

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

The Hustle love fest continued with Amy Adams’s nomination, which I didn’t predict. Her inclusion was not much of a surprise, but I would’ve figured Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) would have missed the cut with Adams in. Apparently never bet against Streep, however, as she’s in and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) was left out. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), and Judi Dench (Philomena) round out the category with Blanchett as the clear likely winner with Bullock standing an outside shot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

This has been one of the tougher categories to predict and my results reflect that. My selections of Daniel Bruhl in Rush and my upset pick of Will Forte in Nebraska didn’t pan out. I correctly called Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyer’s Club) and it was Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) joining the race. Leto is the guy to beat though a really great night for Hustle could make Cooper a threat.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

The story here, as it was with the Golden Globes, is Oprah Winfrey’s exclusion in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. I was on the money with expected nominees Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and June Squibb (Nebraska). Sally Hawkins from Blue Jasmine, my runner-up for a nod, made the cut over Oprah. Lawrence and Nyong’o are the favorites here, with J-Law probably ahead.

Well that’s my analysis, folks! For the rest of the categories, I’ll just give you what was nominated and how I fared:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Her, Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Todd’s Picks: 5/5 (!)

Nominees: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest&Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

Nominees: “Alone Yet Not Alone” from Alone Yet Not Alone, “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, “Let It Go” from Frozen, “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, “The Moon Song” from Her

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

Nominees: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt, The Missing Picture, Omar

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Todd’s Picks: 2/5 (ouch!)

Nominees: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

Nominees: American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Todd’s Picks: 1/3

Nominees: Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave

BEST EDITING

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyer’s Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

Nominees: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

BEST SOUND MIXING

Todd’s Picks: 4/5

Nominees: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor

BEST SOUND EDITING

Todd’s Picks: 3/5

Nominees: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor

Some final thoughts:

This was a very good day for American Hustle and director David O. Russell. For the second year in a row, a Russell film has seen acting nominations in all four major categories (last year: his Silver Linings Playbook).

Since her first nomination in 2005, Amy Adams has either been nominated for Actress or Supporting Actress five out of the last nine years. No wins yet.

For a while, it seemed as if Tom Hanks could be nominated twice this year for Actor (Captain Phillips) and Supporting Actor (Saving Mr. Banks). He received neither.

Speaking of Saving Mr. Banks, bad day for that picture. Many expected a Best Picture nomination and especially a Best Actress nod for Thompson. It managed only a nomination for Original Score.

It was a bad day for Lee Daniels’ The Butler with zero nominations.

It was a bad day for Ron Howard’s Rush as it received zero nods. Most, including me, had it at least being nominated in the sound categories.

And there it is, folks! The Oscar nominations are in and you can bet I’ll be writing more posts over the next month and a half before the ceremony predicting the winners. ‘Til next time!