If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.
As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.
For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.
Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.
What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.
You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.
With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.
Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.
With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.
The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.
Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).
Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.
The 2005 Oscars showcased easily the biggest Best Picture upset since 1998 when Shakespeare in Love won out over Saving Private Ryan. This time around, Ang Lee’s cowboy romance Brokeback Mountain was widely expected to take the top prize.
However, at the end of the evening, it was Jack Nicholson reading the name of Paul Haggis’s Crash as the winner. Other nominees were Bennett Miller’s Capote, George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
The ensemble race relations drama Crash has since garnered the reputation of one of the most undeserving Best Pic recipients of all time. While I agree it wasn’t the year’s best, it’s a pretty damn good film in my estimation. Other flicks I would’ve considered: Woody Allen’s Match Point and Christopher Nolan’s Batman Begins, which I rank as the greatest superhero flick of all time.
While Mountain was snubbed for the big prize, Ang Lee did take Best Director in a category where the nominated directors matched the pictures honored (this was rare before the Academy switched to five to ten nominees in 2009). Lee won out over Haggis, Miller, Clooney, and Spielberg.
The Best Actor category went as planned with Philip Seymour Hoffman winning for his spot-on portrayal of Capote. Other nominees: Terrence Howard in Hustle&Flow, Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line, and David Strathairn in Good Night, and Good Luck.
I might have considered Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man or Viggo Mortensen in A History of Violence. Of course, the Academy rarely honors comedy which left out someone else I would have thought about – Steve Carell for his terrific work in The 40 Yr. Old Virgin.
As June Carter Cash, Reese Witherspoon was victorious in the Best Actress category in Walk the Line, over Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents, Felicity Huffman in Transamerica, Keira Knightley in Pride&Prejudice, and Charlize Theron for North Country.
My list would have certainly included Scarlett Johannson in Match Point.
George Clooney won Supporting Actor for Syriana over Matt Dillon in Crash, Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man, Jake Gyllenhall in Brokeback Mountain, and William Hurt in A History of Violence.
Clifton Collins Jr.’s fine work in Capote should have been included and, for an outside the box pick, Mickey Rourke in a memorable role in Sin City.
Rachel Weisz’s win for Supporting Actress in The Constant Gardener showcased a weak category that included Amy Adams in Junebug, Catherine Keener in Capote, Frances McDormand in North Country, and Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain.
Two performances jump out in my mind that I would’ve had: Maria Bello in A History of Violence and Taryn Manning in Hustle&Flow.
Ultimately the 2005 Oscars will be remembered for that Crash upset. This would also not be the last time where Ang Lee would take home Best Director without his project winning Best Picture. We’ll get to that in an Oscar History post in the future.
Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.
For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
Todd’s Predictions –
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.
Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.
Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.
BEST ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.
BEST ACTRESS
Todd’s Predictions –
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.
Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.
Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.
And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:
PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave
DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
James Franco seemed to be the Waldo of 2013 in film – the man was everywhere. No season of the year passed without a Franco appearance in something. And his omnipresence extended beyond the silver screen and branched out to video parodies and cable TV events.
It started off in March with the release of his most high-profile project, Oz the Great and Powerful. Disney’s prequel to 1939’s The Wizard of Oz from Sam Raimi may not have been well regarded by critics (or, for that matter, this blogger) but it earned a very impressive $234 million domestically.
Just a couple of weeks later came Spring Breakers from director Harmony Korine which cast Franco as Alien, a gangsta rapper. The role earned Franco raves from critics and the pic is already on its way to becoming a cult classic.
Summer brought us This is The End, the post apocalyptic R-rated comedy in which Franco, Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Danny McBride, and other played themselves. It was a winner with critics and audiences alike and was a comedic high point this year, earning over $100 million domestically.
Last month was Homefront, in which the actor played a meth kingpin battling Jason Statham. This movie has failed to connect with audiences.=, but maybe Mr. Franco just wanted to appear in a flick written by Sylvester Stallone.
Here’s what I love about Franco and here’s why he earns a final spot in this blog series: the dude is unpredictable. He could have easily coasted on his handsome looks and probably headlined rom coms and the occasional action pic for the rest of his career. It’s damn clear he isn’t down with that. You’re just as likely to see Franco pop up in a supporting role in an indie flick as you are in a comedy or drama or anything else for that matter. He gets an Oscar nomination for 127 Hours and then stars in a blockbuster pic Rise of the Planet of the Apes and then costars in stoner comedy Your Highness.
While Franco was everywhere on screen this year, this applied to the small screen and computer screen as well. He got the good sport award by subjecting himself to a Comedy Central Roast.
And even more hilariously, Franco and Pineapple Express buddy Rogen did a shot for shot parody of Kanye West’s ridiculous “Bound” video that is one of the funniest things I saw all year. Check the side by side comparison if you don’t believe me.
Franco is showing no signs of slowing down. So far it looks like 2014 will bring Good People, a thriller with Kate Hudson, True Story, a drama with Jonah Hill, and a cameo appearance in the Veronica Mars movie.
This concludes my six-part series on performers who had a major impact on cinema this year. So thank you to Jennifer Lawrence, Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Matthew McConaughey, Melissa McCarthy, and James Franco for the memories!
Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:
I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!
Pacific Rim is visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s love letter to giant monster movies of old but updated with 21st century effects that the makers of Godzilla in 1954 couldn’t even fathom. Here moviegoers are introduced to the terms “Kaiju” and “Jaegers” (not the shot you’ll surely regret the next morning). You see, Kaijus (strange creature in Japanese) are giant alien monsters that attack Earth from below ocean level. Jaegers are giant frickin robots that are commanded by two human pilots inside the machine. The pilots, in order to combat the strength of the Kaijus, do some sort of mind meld trick together where they can read each other’s thoughts and memories in order to create a stronger connection. Or something like that.
The heroes of the pic have a little history with those nasty Kaijus. Pilot Raleigh Becket (Charlie Hunnam) lost his copilot and brother (played by Mike from TV’s “Homeland”) when they battled one and Mako Mori (Rinko Kikuchi) lost her whole family in an attack when she was a child. It is Raleigh and Mako who must become copilots in order to thwart Kaiju mayhem in Hong Kong. Their commanding officer is played by Idris Elba in the picture’s strongest performance.
There’s some colorful supporting characters in the mix. Charlie Day of “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and Horrible Bosses is a quirky research scientist tasked with finding new ways to defeat the monsters. Ron Perlman (who’s collaborated with del Toro on the Hellboy flicks) deals black market Kaiju organs for profit. And there’s a run-of-the-mill subplot about another Jaeger (Robert Kazinsky) who doesn’t trust Raleigh and yadda yadda yadda.
Let’s be clear: when hearing that del Toro was making a giant monster movie, you figured this would be a visual treat. And there are certainly many moments where that’s exactly what we get. Apparently the director decided that whenever a Kaiju does attack, the weather forecast must call for precipitation. Seriously. I don’t think there’s one action scene that doesn’t feature a torrential downpour. These action spectacles feature cool moments like a Jaeger literally hitting a Kaiju with an enormous ship. Both Jaegers and Kaijus are so massive that they pretty much take a building down with each movement they make. While the fight scenes can have a sameness feel to them (with the nighttime rainstorm theme running constantly), there are certainly plenty of moments of visual awe. This is the level where Pacific Rim occasionally works well. If del Toro was attempting to get you emotionally invested in the characters (and it seems like he often is), it doesn’t quite succeed. The lead characters of Raleigh and Mako are rather blandly written. Day and Perlman have fun with their characters, but the roles aren’t particularly memorable.
Pacific Rim is about spectacle and a filmmaker paying homage to the films he loved as a child. It’s worth mentioning that the movies del Toro is celebrating usually were about 90 minutes long and not the bloated 132 minute run time here. We’ve seen del Toro create imaginary worlds of eye popping splendor before in Pan’s Labyrinth and the Hellboy pics. They were more satisfying and original experiences than what we have here. There is, however, just enough cool effects here to warrant a recommendation – albeit a regretfully muted one.
In the summer of 2011, the star of the CBS sitcom “Mike and Molly” Melissa McCarthy broke through to moviegoers in grand fashion with her supporting role in Bridesmaids. The film was a smash, grossing $169 million and earning McCarthy a rare Supporting Actress Oscar nomination for a comedic role.
After that terrific Bridesmaids part, McCarthy pretty much sat 2012 out with just a small part in Judd Apatow’s This Is 40. 2013 is a different story and this year has solidified McCarthy’s standing as Hollywood’s most bankable funny girl.
February’s Identity Thief with Jason Bateman would put her box office abilities to the test. It received mostly poor reviews and gave McCarthy her first starring role. The result? Thief grossed a fabulous $134 million. Critics may not have been on its side, but audiences were.
In June, McCarthy would pair up with Sandra Bullock in the buddy cop flick The Heat and it managed to accelerate the star’s box office cache. The Heat earned $159 million giving McCarthy two laugh fests that easily crossed the century mark domestically.
Technically, there were three pics featuring her that crossed that milestone. McCarthy had a small role in The Hangover Part III, which made $112 million but was considered a financial disappointment. However, its subpar performance had nothing to do with McCarthy.
In addition to her work on her sitcom, 2014 will see McCarthy on the silver screen with two promising projects. There’s St. Vincent de Van Nuys which pairs her with bonafide comedic legend Bill Murray. July 4th brings us Tammy, a road trip pic that also features Susan Sarandon, Dan Aykroyd, and Kathy Bates.
Bridesmaids proved that McCarthy had the potential to be a major film star. Her movies in 2013 turned that potential into reality and it earns her a deserved spot on the list of performers who had a big impact this year.
My final entry in this blog series arrives tomorrow with an actor who was everywhere in 2013 from a famous yellow bricked land to… brilliantly spoofing a famous rapper’s ridiculous video?
The wizards and dragons of The Hobbit film series aren’t the only popular franchise characters returning to theaters during the second weekend of December 2013. Madea and company are back with Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, the fifth entry in the cash cow of a series.
Let’s take a trip down the Madea franchise lane with the openings of each picture:
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (2009) – $41 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25.3 million
As you can see, the openings of the last two pics have not been as big as the first two entries (though $25 million is still a strong performance, especially since they only cost around $20M to produce). I think there’s a decent chance that A Madea Christmas outperforms its two predecessors due to the timely holiday theme. While I have doubts it will reach the low 40s opening of Madea Goes To Jail, it stands a shot of having the second highest opening of the franchise so far. The Madea flicks generally do about 40 some percent of its business during opening weekend and I anticipate the front loaded trend will continue with this one.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, click here:
Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, based on the works of Tolkien, is the second feature in the Hobbit trilogy that began at this time last year. Starring Martin Freeman, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ian McKellen, Orlando Bloom, Evangeline Lilly, wizards, dragons, and others – Smaug opens this Friday.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey took in $84.6 million in its opening weekend in 2012 (it was released during the same December weekend as Smaug). That opening set the all-time record for the month of December and it’s a number its follow-up will attempt to improve upon.
So the main question is: can Smaug set the record for December? I’m a bit skeptical. For starters, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was not met with the universal acclaim that Jackson’s 2001-2003 Lord of the Rings trilogy received. Don’t get me wrong – Hobbit was a strong performer with that record setting debut and an eventual $303 million domestic gross. However, it is worth noting that all three Rings pics outperformed it.
One item in its favor: early reviews suggest that Smaug is better than its predecessor and that the pacing isn’t of the glacial quality that hindered Journey. This is a fairly tough prediction – it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Smaug opened larger than Journey. However, mixed reaction to Journey could lead to a slightly smaller opening. Anything below $75 million would be considered a bit of a letdown. I believe a debut in the late 70s/early 80s range is the most likely scenario.
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opening weekend prediction: $77.9 million
For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, click here:
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