On this day in Movie History, otherwise known as Christmas Eve – Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman tied the knot 23 years ago in 1990. Their union resulted in three motion pictures where the couple worked with the late Tony Scott (Days of Thunder), Ron Howard (Far and Away), and, of course, Stanley Kubrick (Eyes Wide Shut). The marriage would last until 2001. Cruise would go onto other high-profile relationships and Kidman would marry Keith Urban and win an Oscar for 2002’s The Hours (something her ex-husband has yet to do).
43 years ago today marked the debut of Disney’s animated The Aristocats, which is notable for being the last studio pic that Mr. Disney approved himself, prior to his 1966 death.
As for celebrity birthdays, we have Stephanie Meyer, author of the “Twilight” series that turned into a highly successful film franchise that ended just last year. We also have director Lee Daniels, who broke out of the gate with 2009’s Oscar nominated Precious and had a hit this year with Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
As for the daily Six Degrees of Separation between birthday folks –
Stephanie Meyer wrote the Twilight series starring Kristen Stewart
Kristen Stewart was with Forest Whitaker in Panic Room
Forest Whitaker was the star of Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And there you have it – Christmas Eve in Movie History!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:
By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.
Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.
One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)
4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)
5. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Grudge Match
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)
7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)
8. 47 Ronin
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)
9. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)
10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.
And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!
It was 22 years ago Today in Movie History when the film that finally earned Al Pacino a Best Actor Oscar debuted in theaters. Scent of a Woman cast Pacino as a retired blind Army Colonel and the role earned him Academy gold after seven previous nominations and losses.
Speaking of Best Actor wins, Jack Nicholson picked up his second Best Actor trophy for the comedy/drama As Good As It Gets, which opened 16 years ago today. James L. Brooks’s picture also earned Helen Hunt a Best Actress award and a Supporting Actor nod for Greg Kinnear.
25 years ago today marked the opening of Garry Marshall’s Beaches, the tearjerker with Bette Midler and Barbara Hershey. And that film gave us one of the most gloriously cheesy monster hit ballads in memory – “Wind Beneath My Wings”.
As for celebrity birthdays, today would have marked the 42nd birthday of Corey Haim, who died in 2010. One half of the “Coreys” duo that included Corey Feldman, Haim costarred in such features as Lucas, The Lost Boys, and License to Drive.
Today is the 34th birthday of Estella Warren, best known to moviegoers as the female lead in Tim Burton’s 2001 Planet of the Apes “reimagining”. Since then, most of her work has been on TV with appearances on “Law&Order” and “Ghost Whisperer”.
As for the daily Six Degress of Separation between birthday performers:
Corey Haim was in The Lost Boys with Jason Patric
Jason Patric was in Narc with Ray Liotta
Ray Liotta was in Date Night with Mark Wahlberg
Mark Wahlberg was in Planet of the Apes with Estella Warren
And that’s today – December 23 – in Movie History!
Nearly three years after his Never Say Never was a box office hit, Justin Bieber is out with a new documentary Believe. In February of 2011, the aforementioned doc earned $29.5 million in its opening weekend.
This will not be the case with Believe. While a good percentage of Belieber nation could turn out, here is the key difference: Never Say Never was released on 3105 screens. Believe is coming out on approximately 1000. That fact alone guarantees a considerably smaller opening. Add to that an extraordinarily crowded Christmas marketplace and Believe may be lucky to reach double digits over its five-day debut. I think it’ll get there, but just barely.
Believe opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $10.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on the other four Christmas openers – The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, and 47 Ronin – click here:
47 Ronin was initially scheduled to be released domestically in November 2012 and now over a year later, Keanu Reeves’s martial arts action pic debuts on Christmas Day. Big box office returns may not reward Universal Pictures for the wait.
With a reported gargantuan budget of $175 million, the makers of the pic were likely hopeful that international box office would help this become a hit. It hasn’t turned out that way as Ronin had a less than expected premiere in Japan earlier this month.
Reeves is simply not the box office draw he was a decade ago and 47 Ronin may get lost in the holiday shuffle. It has one advantage in being the sole straight up action pic in the marketplace, but I’m not sure that’s enough for it to break through in a major way. I don’t see it breaking $20 million over the five-day Christmas holiday and it’ll probably drop quickly from whatever its opening is.
47 Ronin opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $17.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:
Call it Grumpy Old Boxers and call it a potentially lame concept, but Grudge Match may have some nice Christmas returns when it opens Wednesday. The sports comedy pits 67 year-old Sylvester Stallone in a boxing match with 70 year-old Robert De Niro. Of course, these two actors are known for their pugilistic pics – Stallone from the Rocky franchise (the original won the Best Picture Oscar) and De Niro from 1980’s Raging Bull, for which he won an Oscar.
Don’t expect any Oscars here, but a solid box office gross seems more possible. Audiences could simply reject it, but I suspect older holiday moviegoers looking for a laugh could turn to this. Grudge Match is directed by veteran comedy director Peter Segal, whose credits include Tommy Boy, Anger Management, 50 First Dates, and Get Smart. Kevin Hart and Alan Arkin costar.
Reviews should be a non-factor (there aren’t any yet). Stallone has had a dismal 2013 with Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan, two action oriented bombs. This is De Niro’s umpteenth comedy of the year after The Big Wedding, The Family, and Last Vegas.
Grudge Match may play similarly to last year’s Parental Guidance with Billy Crystal and Bette Midler, which opened on Christmas and took in $29 million over six days. The gross for Grudge will be for five days and it may not quite bring in the younger audience that Guidance did. However, I am estimating that this gimmicky comedy will find an audience and a fairly healthy one at that.
Grudge Match opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $24.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:
One of the big question marks entering into the crowded Christmas holiday season is how The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will perform at the box office.
Ben Stiller directs and stars in the fantasy themed drama, which is loosely based on a 1947 Danny Kaye picture of the same name. Walter Mitty has been in development for nearly two decades. During that time period, various directors and actors were attached to the project including Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, Gore Verbinski, Jim Carrey, Owen Wilson, Mike Myers, and Sacha Baron Cohen. Eventually it turned into a vehicle for Mr. Stiller, making his first directorial effort since 2008’s Tropic Thunder. Kristin Wiig and Sean Penn are among the costars.
At one time, Mitty was seen as a potential awards contender but the reviews have ended that prospect. The pic has generated mixed reviews and stands at a troubling 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. As has become a theme in my Christmas box office predictions, the high amount of competition is a factor in my estimate. This picture is going for an adult audience and there’s The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle out there. Those seeking a film with comedic elements may look to Anchorman 2 or Grudge Match. There’s also Saving Mr. Banks, which I anticipate will perform well in its second weekend after a rather soft debut. This all leads to me to believe that Mitty, coupled with its middling reviews, could get somewhat lost in the holiday shuffle.
I’m not convinced the pic’s marketing campaign has been successful in drawing significant audience interest for it. Mitty may struggle to reach $20 million over the five-day holiday time period.
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty box office prediction: $11.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $19.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:
This Christmas brings an onslaught of five new pictures debuting and we begin with Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. This three hour comedy/drama (it’s the director’s longest film, beating out GoodFellas) stars Marty’s favorite collaborator Leonardo DiCaprio as well as Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey. It’s received positive reviews, has had a robust marketing campaign (especially with its awesome first trailer), and looks poised to make some noise over the holiday season.
Originally scheduled to premiere in mid-November, Wolf was switched to December 25th and it certainly does face more competition. American Hustle (which had a solid $19M debut) is going after the same audience in its second weekend. Still, I expect this to have a healthy debut over its five-day rollout.
Last year, adult-oriented pics Les Miserables and Django Unchained made a killing over their Christmas openings. Miserables earned $67 million over six days (Christmas was a Tuesday last year) while Django took in $64 million. With one less day and more competition, I don’t expect Wolf to go that high but its grosses should still impress. Its long running time means less showings but that should only be a small impediment.
I foresee a five-day debut in the 40s and a Merry Christmas indeed for Scorsese and company.
The Wolf of Wall Street opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $44.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:
In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.
This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.
There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.
Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.
Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.
Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!
Apparently December 22nd in Movie History could be called Ben Stiller Day as the actor has had a trio of titles debut on the day over the past decade.
For starters, 2004 brought us the sequel Meet the Fockers, which was a smash hit grossing $279 million domestically. It remains Stiller’s highest earning picture of all time.
Two years later would come Stiller’s second largest domestic grosser Night at the Museum. The family friendly pic racked up a $250 million domestic gross and spawned a sequel with another on the way in 2014.
Finally, December 22, 2010 brought Little Fockers, where the franchise seemed to run out of steam. Though it made a respectable $148 million – that’s a far cry from its 2004 predecessor.
Stiller’s movies are no stranger to the Christmas season (clearly) and this year is no exception with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty opening on Christmas Day.
As for celebrity birthdays, we have two characters actors: Hector Elizondo turns 77. You may know him for the original The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 or Beaches or Pretty Woman. He’s a particular favorite of director Garry Marshall.
And Ralph Fiennes turns 51. He first captured the attention of audiences with his Oscar nominated supporting role as a Nazi soldier in Schindler’s List. Since then he’s appeared in everything from Quiz Show to The English Patient to Red Dragon to, of course, Lord Voldemort in the Harry Potter franchise.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two actors:
Hector Elizondo was in Beverly Hills Cop III with Eddie Murphy
Eddie Murphy was with (yep) Ben Stiller in Tower Heist
Ben Stiller was in Along Came Polly with Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Phillip Seymour Hoffman was in Red Dragon with Ralph Fiennes
And that’s today – December 22 – in Movie History!
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