Month: November 2013

About Time Box Office Prediction

Attempting to provide counter programming to the box office juggernaut that will be the Thor sequel, the British rom com About Time opens Friday. The pic is from Love, Actually director Richard Curtis and stars Rachel McAdams. Domhnall Gleeson (who played one of the Weasley brothers in the Harry Potter pics) costars.

McAdams has certainly had her share of luck in the genre with The Notebook and The Vow, but About Time will likely be a smaller affair. Will chicks turn out for this flick? It’s hard to imagine it falling below double digits for the opener, even if this seems to be flying under the radar. I’ll predict McAdams name should propel it to low double digits with the possibility that it could surprise.

About Time opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my Thor: The Dark World prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World Box Office Prediction

The second weekend of November should bring huge results as an Avenger returns in Thor: The Dark World, the sequel to the 2011 hit. Chris Hemsworth is back as the title character along with returnees Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Rene Russo, and, of course, fan favorite Tom Hiddleston as villainous Loki. TV vet Alan Taylor takes over directing duties from Kenneth Branagh, who moved on to film Jack Ryan.

The original debuted to a strong $65.7 million two and a half years ago, but expectations are understandably higher this time around. Summer 2012 brought us a little movie called The Avengers that broke box office records and increased Thor’s visibility to an even wider audience. The question is: just how high can this pic open?

Conventional estimates are forecasting above $75 million and I would envision Thor easily grabbing that number. A debut in the mid-80s seems most likely though it may land a little lower and (more likely) around $90 million. Reviews have been pretty solid – not that it matters a whole lot. Thor: The Dark World is destined to be a gigantic hit and propel momentum for the next Avengers themed pic coming next spring, the Captain America sequel.

Thor: The Dark World opening weekend prediction: $85.6 million

For my About Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 1-3

Of the three new pictures that opened this weekend, not one of them reached the number I predicted while Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa held up considerably better in its second frame than I estimated.

Unsurprisingly, the sci-fi pic Ender’s Game debuted at #1 with $28 million, a bit below my $32.9M prediction. This is only a somewhat decent opening for the film and it will likely suffer a healthy decline next weekend when Thor hammers into theaters.

Bad Grandpa held the #2 spot with $20.5 million in its sophomore frame – well above my $13.7M projection. The pic has taken in $62.1 million in ten days and surpassing $100M seems assured.

The all-star comedy Last Vegas had an OK debut with $16.5 million, below my $19.2M estimate. The Thanksgiving animated feature Free Birds also had a so-so $16.2 million opening for fourth place, below my generous $21M estimate. Both titles could have relatively small declines in upcoming weekends. Gravity held the five spot with $13.1 million, right in line with my $13.9M estimate.

Finally, Oscar contender 12 Years a Slave expanded its theater count and grossed an impressive $4.6 million, above my $3.5-$4M projection. The pic is likely to stay in the Top Ten for a little while.

Be sure to check the blog later today when my estimates for Thor: The Dark World and About Time will be posted.