Month: November 2013

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

Delivery Man Box Office Prediction

He’s had one pretty big box office disappointment earlier this year with The Internship and that trend may well continue for Vince Vaughn with Delivery Man.

The film is actually a scene-for-scene remake of a 2011 Canadian feature titled Starbuck and Vaughn was brought in to give the American version some star power. Vaughn plays a sperm donor who finds out he has fathered 533 children. Chris Pratt and Cobie Smulders costar.

Delivery Man sounds a bit gimmicky and audiences may treat this with ambivalence. Reviews so far have been mixed. There’s also the matter of another picture opening Friday that is likely to divert the attention of audiences: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The decision to open this against that might not have been a wise one.

If Delivery Man gets past $15 million, I’d be surprised. I think it’s more to reach the low end of double digits.

Delivery Man opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction post on The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Box Office Prediction

In March of 2012, The Hunger Games opened to a massive $152.5 million domestic opening weekend and finished with a gargantuan $408M domestic haul. To say its sequel Catching Fire is eagerly awaited is quite the understatement.

Director Gary Ross is out and I Am Legend director Francis Lawrence is in. Of course, it’s a different Lawrence (Jennifer) and her costars Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz and newcomers Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jeffrey Wright that audiences are eager to see. Catching Fire comes with a much bigger $140 million budget compared to the $78M price tag for the original.

Reviews suggest this adaptation of Suzanne Collins novel is very faithful and the film sits an impressive 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Just how big could this be? Well, big. The sequel is likely to open larger than its predecessor, which currently holds the #6 all-time highest domestic opening. There are some who believe it could debut above $175 million which would put it at #2 all-time, above this year’s $174M opening of Iron Man 3. I’m not going that high, but would certainly say it’s possible. I believe a debut in the mid to high 160’s is the most plausible scenario. My prediction would put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at #4 all-time – just below the $169M haul of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 and above the $160M opening of The Dark Knight Rises.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opening weekend prediction: $166.7 million

For my prediction on Delivery Man with Vince Vaughn, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 15-17

As expected, Thor: The Dark World remained atop the box office in its second weekend but it was the unexpected performance of newcomer The Best Man Holiday that has people talking.

Thor took in $38.4 million in its sophomore weekend, right in line with my $39.3M prediction. The Best Man Holiday, a sequel to the 1999 film that grossed $34 million total, debuted second with a terrific $30.5 million. This is well above my $18.7M prediction and tops even the most generous estimates.

Rounding out the top five, holdovers Last Vegas was third with $8.8M (above my $7.5M prediction), Free Birds was fourth with $8.3M (just below my $8.9M prediction), and Bad Grandpa was fifth with $7.6M (better than my $6.5M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up on next weekend’s newbies – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Delivery Man.

Box Office Predictions: November 15-17

Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:

 

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/10/the-best-man-holiday-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

 

The Best Man Holiday Box Office Prediction

This coming weekend was supposed to see the debut of Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited The Wolf of Wall Street, but the title ended up getting pushed back to Christmas Day to allow the director more time to tinker. It surely would have opened in the number two spot.

Therefore, we have only one new picture opening and it’s The Best Man Holiday, a sequel to 1999’s The Best Man. The original pic grossed a solid $34 million fourteen years ago (it only had a $9M budget). Starring Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Terrence Howard, Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Sanaa Lathan, the holiday themed comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a large contingent of African-American audiences to the multiplex.

Its prospects look pretty decent. The stars of the film are certainly more well-known today than they were several years ago and there’s really no direct competition for its demographic. If something like Baggage Claim can make $9 million in its debut, The Best Man Holiday should easily surpass that. I could envision this getting as high as low 20s, as several of Tyler Perry’s recent productions have. It could also be somewhere in the mid-teens. With that range stated, I’ll go in the middle of it and say it earns high teens for a solid second place debut after weekend #2 for Thor.

The Best Man Holiday opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Can Ron Burgundy Break Box Office Records?

With constantly running Durango commercials featuring its star and trailers that seem to be breathlessly anticipated as soon as they hit the Internet, the following question may already be fair to ask:

Will Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues have the biggest comedy opening of all time?

The sequel is out December 20th and for the next two months, we’ll see Ron Burgundy (Will Ferrell) hawking those cars on TV in between football games and our favorite shows. We’ll also be constantly watching the series of YouTube trailers that have been released and will continue to be released.

Anchorman 2 is in a unique position to vie for that throne. The 2004 original was a hit – but not a massive hit. It grossed $85.2 million domestically – less than other Ferrell movies Elf, Talladega Nights, Blades of Glory, Step Brothers, The Other Guys, and The Campaign. 

However, few comedies have achieved the massive beloved status that Anchorman has. It’s probably the most quoted comedy of the last decade – only Napoleon Dynamite from the same year comes close in my view. Some of the costars of the original – namely Steve Carell and Paul Rudd – have become big stars in their own right since its release. Put simply, this sequel is highly anticipated – and its marketing campaign has been outstanding so far.

If Anchorman 2 were have the biggest comedy opening ever, it would need to beat another eagerly awaited sequel in the genre – The Hangover Part II, which earned $85.9 million in its opening weekend in 2011. You’ll note that if that were achieved – that would mean Anchorman 2 would make more in its first three days than the original did in its entire domestic theatrical run. There is precedent for that. In 1997, Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery was a cult hit that earned $53 million in its whole run. In the two years that followed, that film became a sensation (and also endlessly quoted much like Anchorman). In 1999, its sequel The Spy Who Shagged Me made $54 million in its opening three days.

That could happen here and if it did – Ron, Brian, Champ, and Brick can claim opening weekend comedy dominance. We’re still a few weeks away and I’m not sure if it will. If it did – that would kind of be a big deal (as Ron might say).

Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Third Take

Here we are with November arriving and that means it’s time for my third round of predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the six major categories at the Oscars. Let’s break them down by category, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I am still sticking with my estimate of nine pictures getting recognition – just like the two previous years. The family drama August: Osage County seems to be losing steam so it’s the only pic I’ve taken out. I’ve replaced it with Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. The slot could just as easily go to John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks or Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Her, Blue is the Warmest Color, Fruitvale Station, Dallas Buyer’s Club, and Lone Survivor.

The predicted nine:

All is Lost

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are absolute shoo-ins for nominations. After that, things get complicated. I’ve taken out Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis and replaced them with Paul Greengrass for his work in Captain Phillips. David O. Russell and his efforts in American Hustle remain another prediction. I’m still (somewhat stubbornly) including J.C. Chandor for All is Lost, even though few others have him in. There were simply so many surprises in the Director category last year that I have to include a surprise pick. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Lee Daniels for The Butler, Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. and John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks.

Predictions:

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here from a month ago: I’m including Joaquin Phoenix as a somewhat surprise pick for Spike Jonze’s Her and taking out Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. More contenders who missed the five: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis).

Predictions:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Robert Redford, All is Lost

BEST ACTRESS

This is the only category where I have no changes from a month ago. This still seems to be a close race between Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock. I was tempted to put Emma Thompson in for Saving Mr. Banks on here but didn’t feel comfortable taking any of the other five out right now. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Kate Winslet (Labor Day), and Julie Delpy (Before Midnight).

Predictions:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category seems to be the most wide open at press time. The only surefire nominee in my mind is Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave. I’ve taken out the late James Gandolfini for Enough Said and replaced him with Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. Others who didn’t make it but could easily be included later: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis, Matthew McConaughey for Mud (especially if he’s not recognized for Dallas Buyer’s Club in lead Actor), Daniel Bruhl for Rush, Josh Brolin in Labor Day, Jake Gyllenhall in Prisoners, and Harrison Ford in 42.

Predictions:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Many believe this race will come down to Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave vs. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Both Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County are possible, but I’ve taken Martindale out and replaced her with June Squibb in Nebraska as the only change. Other possible nominees: Sarah Paulson in 12 Years a Slave and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station.

Predictions:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it – round 3 is in the books! I’ll be back with round 4 in the coming weeks! Please note: my next round of predictions (around Thanksgiving most likely) will include my first forecast for winners in each race. Stay tuned.

Box Office Predictions: November 8-10

There’s certainly zero mystery as to what will be #1 this weekend as Thor: The Dark World blasts into theaters and should have one of the biggest openings of the year. You can read my detailed post outlining my prediction on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is About Time, a British romantic comedy with Rachel McAdams that could muster up some decent counter programming business. It could also totally tank. I’m not too sure about that one, but my prediction post for it is here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Ender’s Game will fall to second place and should lose about half its audience in weekend #2 after a just OK $27 million opening. After that, numbers 3-6 should involve a combination of the following: Last Vegas and Free Birds in their sophomore weekends, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in its third, and the debut of About Time. The order of how they place is very much up in the air and should be close.

And with that – I’ll make it top six (instead of the usual five) predictions for next weekend:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $85.6 million

2. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. About Time

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

There you have it! As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!