If you’re like me, well I’m sorry. However, if so, the month of October means it’s time to break out the horror flicks. There’s something about Halloween approaching and the changing fall weather that makes a scary flick even more desirable to watch.
So naturally I’m putting up a poll where you can name your favorite fright pic of all time. I’ve provided 15 choices, but feel free to add your own. Vote away readers!
This coming weekend, Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips and the star-studded sequel Machete Kills open and try to take down the box office juggernaut that is Gravity. You can find my individual posts on both new pics here:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/
I seem to be going lower than most prognosticators so far on Captain Phillips. I’m sticking with my prediction and believe it will suffer small declines in future weekends. As for Machete Kills, I’m not expecting much.
Gravity should hold onto the #1 spot and have a fairly small decline. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is likely to experience a drop in its third weekend in the low-30s. The Justin Timberlake/Ben Affleck bomb Runner Runner should hang around in the top five but suffer a sizable fall from its already weak opening weekend debut.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Gravity
Predicted Gross: $33.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)
2. Captain Phillips
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)
4. Machete Kills
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Runner Runner
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)
I’ll have updates this weekend on the blog as the numbers roll in!
Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.
Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.
Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.
Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million
For my Captain Phillips prediction, click here:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/
Based on the true life 2009 Somali pirate hijacking, director Paul Greengrass tells the story of Captain Phillips, out Friday. With Tom Hanks in the title role, the pic received solid word of mouth from film festivals and sits at a strong 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Greengrass is right in his wheelhouse with the subject matter having directed United 93 as well as The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum.
Phillips is being touted as an Oscar contender for Picture, Director, and Actor (it would be Hanks’s first nomination in 13 years). What could perhaps hinder its debut is the performance of another Oscar hopeful, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity. That pic just set the October opening weekend record with $55 million and it may experience a relatively small decline in weekend number two.
Captain Phillips could fall anywhere from a $15 million debut to the high 20s, in my estimation. It should have strong legs after its opening based on critical reaction and word of mouth. For now, I’ll say it falls just shy of $20 million for an opening.
Captain Phillips opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million
For my Machete Kills prediction, click here:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/
Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney has captured the attention of moviegoers and earned the title of best October opening of all time. The record was previously held by Paranormal Activity 3 with $52.5 million.
Defying even the high end of expectations, the pic grossed a terrific $55.6 million – well above my $38.7M prediction. With an A- Cinemascore grade, Gravity looks to have a healthy run in coming weeks and could stay #1 for at least one more weekend. The impressive opening is also a career-best for Bullock as her previous highest was this summer’s The Heat with $39.1 million. And it’s the best opening for Clooney, too – above the $42.8 million for (sadly) 1997’s Batman and Robin.
As expected, last weekend’s champ Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 fell to second place with $21.5 million – right on target with my $21.8M projection.
The noise made by Gravity unquestionably affected other films marketed towards adults… and in negative fashion. The weekend’s other newbie Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck failed to connect with a weak $7.6 million debut, below my $10.9M estimate. The pic ends the magical 2013 run of Timberlake, who’s been having a banner year on the music charts.
Rounding out the top five, Prisoners took fourth with $5.7 million (just below my $6.2M projection) while Ron Howard’s Rush fell further than I figured it would in its second weekend with only $4.4 million (I said $6.1M). While the Formula One racing pic was a hit with critics, audiences are clearly ambivalent.
At press time, numbers were not available for Metallica Through the Never, which I predicted would gross $2.8 million. I’ll update those numbers when I have them.
**Update: Metallica Through the Never managed only $682,000, well below my estimate. It seems the pic (marketed as an IMAX release) lost a lot of screens due to… you guessed it, Gravity.
Be sure to check the blog later today for individual predictions on next weekend’s openers, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks and Robert Rodriguez’s sequel Machete Kills.
Now here’s a hash tag game I can get involved with!
I noticed late last night that #AddaWordRuinaMovie seems to be exploding on Twitter. The concept is as simple as it sounds. Just add one word to a movie title and it takes on a completely different meaning… sometimes to hilarious results. Sometimes to disturbing ones. Here are some of the entries I came up with:
The Land Before Time Magazine
Tin Pimp Cup
State of Nancy Grace
What About Bob Barker?
Rudy Huxtable
American Gangster Boogie
Boogie Board Nights
Three Kings Mattresses
Don’t Say a Safety Word
There Will Be Blood Drives
The French Toast Connection
Training Bra Day
Batman Begins Kindergarten
New Colby Jack City
Badminton Face/Off
Minority Report Cards
And here are some personal favorites I’ve seen from others:
Schindler’s Grocery List
Rosemary’s Baby Daddy
The Tax Return of the Jedi
The Obama Care Bears Movie
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off Meds
After Birth of a Nation (wow)
Star Trek II: The Wrath of Chaka Khan
Breakfast Burrito at Tiffany’s
You’ve Got Hate Mail
The Sound of Nickelback Music
Bruno Mars Attacks!
Lord of the Nipple Rings
And there’s many, many, many, many more! Do yourself a favor and check this latest social media phenom yourself… and think of some of your own.
It’s been a number of days since my first round of Oscar predictions and there’s been some movement since then. Time for a second update, my friends!
The biggest change is Bennett Miller’s drama Foxcatcher with Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum being postponed to 2014. I had it being nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor (Ruffalo). Added to that, I’ve changed my mind in every other category with the exception of Best Actor.
And with that, my second take on Oscar predictions in the six major categories:
PICTURE
All is Lost
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Twelve Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
CHANGES: Foxcatcher out, The Wolf of Wall Street in
DIRECTOR
J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
CHANGES: Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher out, Joel and Ethan Coen in
ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofer, Twelve Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
CHANGES: None.
ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
CHANGES: Adele Exarchopoulos out for Blue is the Warmest Colour, Amy Adams in
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
CHANGES: George Clooney for Gravity and Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher out, Cooper and Gandolfini in
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
CHANGES: Julia Roberts for August: Osage County and Naomie Harris for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom out, Martindale and Hawkins in
And there you have it! I’ll have a third update in the coming weeks!
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