I have already made my early Best Supporting Actress predictions on the blog which you can find here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We now move forward with Supporting Actor where I’ll list the possible nominees as I see ’em with my five predictions. Right now, there seems to be only one sure-fire nominee and that would be Michael Fassbender in Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, which screened to raves at Telluride over the weekend. He appears to be in and should stay there. After that, it’s murky. Tom Hanks could possibly be nominated for lead Actor in Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips and in this category playing Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. If Banks is well-regarded, his chances seem excellent. Matthew McConaughey is another potential double nominee. In lead Actor, his chances for November’s Dallas Buyer’s Club are high. However, his chances for either Mud or Wolf of Wall Street in this race could happen too. Speaking of Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jared Leto looks to have quite a juicy role in the picture and he’s on the radar. Jonah Hill is said to be the standout in Wolf of Wall Street and he could score his second nomination in two years after 2011’s Moneyball. Bennett Miller’s upcoming Foxcatcher is a head scratcher at press time. No one’s seen it. There’s no trailer. However, director Miller has had his last two pics (Capote and Moneyball) score nods for his cast. That means Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum could land nominations. The film’s star Steve Carell could be nominated here, too, but it’s unclear whether the studio will push him for Lead. Due to the uncertainty, I’m leaving them all off for now, but any one of them could return when I update predictions. Director David O. Russell is another filmmaker who gets his actors nominated and that could bode well for either Bradley Cooper or Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity looks to be a shoo-in for Best Picture and probably Sandra Bullock for Actress and the love could certainly extend to George Clooney for his supporting role. John Goodman has been a respected actor for years but he’s never been noticed by the Academy. That could change with Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. Relative newcomer Daniel Bruhl is said to be a bright spot in Ron Howard’s upcoming Formula One racing pic Rush. Josh Brolin could be in the mix for his role in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Jake Gyllenhall is already being touted for a “career-best” performance in Prisoners. Javier Bardem looks to have a cool role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Benedict Cumberbatch (who received positive notices this summer in Star Trek Into Darkness) could be recognized for August: Osage County. 

Bottom line: this race is very unpredictable right now, with the exception of Fassbender’s nomination. Here’s my predictions with a further prediction: this list is likely to change over the next four months.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): Now that I’ve predicted Tom Hanks will be nominated in the lead Actor category for Captain Phillips, I’m having a harder time putting him down in this category for Saving Mr. Banks. Therefore, I’m substituting Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher at press time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back with Best Actress in short order.

Bottom line?

And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.

I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).

Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this holiday weekend and it is typically a venue where Oscar contenders are born. This seems to be the case for Denis Villenueve’s Prisoners (out September 20), a crime thriller starring Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall. The first screening has been met with rapturous critical reviews with more than one saying it’s career-best work from Jackman and Gyllenhall. Just last year, Jackman received his first Best Actor nomination for Les Miserables. Based on the reaction to Prisoners, it’s very well likely he’ll receive two in a row.

Canadian director Villenueve is making his American debut with Prisoners, about a child abduction. The film is set to be extremely unsettling and violent but also, according to a number of early reviews, brilliant. One prominent critic compared it to Seven and Mystic River. Based on reaction alone at Telluride, Prisoners is now in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jackman), and Best Supporting Actor (Gyllenhall). There’s also some talk already of Melissa Leo for Supporting Actress. She plays the mother of a suspect in the case.

Prisoners has immediately become a movie to pay close attention to this awards season and it’s certainly vaulted to the top of my must-see pics of the fall.