Early Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE

And here we go!

After days on the blog predicting the races for Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress – we arrive at the big prize, Best Picture! In the last few years, the Academy has gone to a format that allows anywhere from five to ten pictures to be recognized. In the last two years, that number has been nine. For now – I’ll keep that number for those I’m predicting, though that’s certainly subject to change.

This newer format more or less guarantees that the five people nominated for Best Director will see their movies nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, that means I’m predicting Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and David O. Russell’s American Hustle are in. I am supremely confident in the nominations of two in particular: Twelve Years a Slave, which I’m also predicting for Director, Actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor), Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) and Gravity, which I’ve also predicted for Director, Actress (Sandra Bullock), and Supporting Actor (George Clooney).

Foxcatcher, the true-life drama starring Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum, is the only title I’m predicting that no one has seen on the film festival circuit or otherwise. That goes against a group of unseen titles that many others are currently predicting: Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, Spike Jonze’s Her and Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. Any one of them could enter the fray once the word is out, but I’m simply not ready to include them at press time.

There are two titles already out that stand decent chances: Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine and Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, but I don’t think they’ll quite make it. Same goes for the following: Ron Howard’s Rush, Denis Vilenueve’s Prisoners, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Jason Reitman’s Labor Day, Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, and Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyer’s Club.

So what are the other four movies I’ve got in right now? Paul Greengrass’s Somali pirate thriller Captain Phillips looks to be a strong possibility. So does the family drama August: Osage County, which has opened to mixed festival reviews but whose A-list cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch) should help. The Coen Bros folk music pic Inside Llewyn Davis opened to raves on the festival circuit. And I believe the box office success of this summer’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler puts it in for now.

Will these predictions change? You bet they will! For now, though, here are my nine predictions for the biggest category of them all:

BEST PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Foxcatcher

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

And there you have it! I’ll be updating my predictions for the six major races frequently on the blog so stay tuned!