Tonight on the blog, my predictions for the Best Director race in the 2013 Oscars. I’ve already covered all the acting races at this point. In fact, I even made some changes to the Best Actress and Supporting Actress races in those posts this evening. These are based on strong rumors that Meryl Streep will be campaigned for in the lead Actress race and not Supporting for August: Osage County. I cordially invite you to review all the acting predictions at the following links:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/
Moving forward, this Best Director race so far is tough to predict with two exceptions. I’m already highly confident that Alfonso Cuaron will be recognized for this October’s Gravity and Steve McQueen will be nominated for Twelve Years a Slave. Both pictures have taken the film festival circuit by storm and their work behind the camera seems virtually assured of being honored.
Speaking of film festivals, a number of them (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) have occurred over the past couple of weeks and that has helped the Oscar race take some shape. However, there are still a number of high-profile contenders that no one has seen yet. They are: John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, David O. Russell’s American Hustle, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Spike Jonze’s Her, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher .All are legit contenders in this race and for Best Picture. At this juncture, I’m only predicting only one of these eight directors to be nominated. That would be Russell, who’s been nominated for his last two features, The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. This might be a good time to explain why I’m not predicting Scorsese right now. Yes, he’s a legendary director who has been nominated for four of his last five pics. Based on the trailer, though, I’m not convinced Wolf of Wall Street is Oscar material. Don’t get me wrong… I’m probably looking forward to it more than any other movie this fall. Wolf looks like an extremely fun black comedy and I’m not sure that the Academy will recognize it. So (for now) Marty is off the list. As for the other unseen titles, any of them could be a factor and and their directors could make the list in future predictions.
This leaves the following directors vying for two more predicted slots: Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Lee Daniels Lee Daniels’ The Butler, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Ron Howard’s Rush, John Wells’s August: Osage County, Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long to Walk to Freedom, Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, and Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners. Who knows? Their could be even more auteurs joining this lengthy list later.
All of these pictures have either been released or, in most cases, have played the festival circuit recently. Of particular note is Rush, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing pic that was met with terrific reviews. This might be a nice chance for the Academy to recognize Howard twelve years after he won the prize for A Beautiful Mind. For the fifth slot, I’m going a bit out on a limb and going with J.C. Chandor, director of the Robert Redford nautical drama/thriller All is Lost. I’ve gone back and forth wanting to include Greengrass, the Coen Brothers, and Daniels. The same can be said for Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, but it’s tough to get a handle on that pic without even a trailer to view.
This is a race that will develop over the next couple of months I believe, with the exception of Cuaron and McQueen appearing to be locks.
BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): I have decided to make one change to my predictions and I am not taking Ron Howard out and substituting him with Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher.
BEST DIRECTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)
J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Coming next… predictions for the biggest race of all, Best Documentary Short Subject! Actually, no, I’ll make my first predictions on the five to ten features that will be nominated for Best Picture. Stay tuned!
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