Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

On the blog this evening comes part 3 of my early 2013 Oscar Predictions. I’ve already done posts for Supporting Actor and Actress which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ve still got Actor, Director, and Picture to go, but it’s the leading ladies tonight with my predictions for Best Actress. I would say at this early point in the race, we already have two definite nominees. First, Cate Blanchett for her critically lauded work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which was released this summer. She pretty much became an instant shoo-in upon the picture’s release. Then there’s Sandra Bullock in Alfonso Cuaron’s outer space thriller Gravity. That pic has played at festivals already before its October release and her performance is said to be magnificent. This would mark Bullock’s second nomination after winning four years ago for The Blind Side.

After that things become uncertain. The film festival circuit has also elevated Judi Dench for her work in Philomena. This would mark the veteran performer’s seventh Academy nomination. Emma Thompson looks like a real possibility in Saving Mr. Banks, in which she plays “Mary Poppins” author P.L. Travers as she works with Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) on the making of the classic film. As I’ve mentioned in my Supporting Actor and Actress posts, director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated. This bodes well for Amy Adams in American Hustle, though she could be competing with herself in Spike Jonze’s Her. Julia Roberts will be touted for lead in August: Osage County, though her costars Meryl Streep and Margo Martindale may receive more attention. The French romantic drama Blue Is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d’Or at Cannes including an award for its star Adele Exarchopoulos. The 19 year-old actress definitely has a shot. Both Naomi Watts in Diana (playing Princess Diana) and Nicole Kidman in Grace of Monaco (playing Princess Grace) are contenders, though I’m skeptical until we found out whether the movies are any good. Kate Winslet’s work in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day could be recognized.

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in this category instead of Supporting Actress. Reaction to the film has led to me believing Meryl gets nominated here, so I’m taking Emma Thompson out for now and putting Streep in.

Bottom line: Blanchett and Bullock are in. The rest is unclear right now, but here’s how I see the five nominations at this juncture:

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I’ll have my predictions up for Best Actor soon!