My latest edition of 2013 films that could contend for various Oscars centers on 12 Years a Slave, which gives some actors their shot for their first acting nominations. The pic is based on the 1853 autobiography of Solomon Northup, a free black man who was kidnapped and sold into the slave trade.
From director Steve McQueen, maker of 2011’s acclaimed Shame, 12 Years a Slave features a supporting cast that includes Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, and Benedict Cumberbatch. It is Fassbender, as a sadistic slave owner, who’s been mentioned for Supporting Actor. Newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is already being mentioned for Supporting Actress.
If the movie delivers, expect lots of speculation to focus on the actor playing Solomon, Chiwetel Ejiofor. He’s one of those actors you’ll recognize from many supporting roles, including Inside Man, American Gangster, and Salt. This has a great shot at being his breakout role and a Best Actor nod could follow.
Along with The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, The Monuments Men, and The Counselor (all of which I’ve written about previously), 12 Years a Slave is one more title expected to be mentioned in the Best Picture race. I’ll have more films in contention to talk about soon enough. Stay tuned!
Any thriller featuring the cast of The Counselor coupled with the fact that Ridley Scott (Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator) is directing would vault it onto the list of Oscar hopefuls.
The Counselor also has the added bonus of having an original screenplay written by Cormac McCarthy, considered of the best novelists alive. If you’re not familiar with his literary works, you’re probably at least aware of some movies adapted from them: The Road, All the Pretty Horses, and the Oscar winning No Country for Old Men.
The film is a thriller about a lawyer (Michael Fassbender) who gets tangled up with some nefarious characters in the drug world. It’s got an impressive cast that includes Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Brad Pitt.
Oscar attention so far has focused on Picture and Director nominations, as well as the strong possibility that Mr. McCarthy gets an Original Screenplay nod. As far as the actors, it’s been Diaz and Bardem in their Supporting roles mentioned the most. Fassbender for Best Actor seems possible, but he’s also being touted already for Supporting Actor in 12 Years a Slave (I’ll have an Oscar Watch post on that one soon enough).
Director Scott saw his 2000 epic Gladiator take the top prize, but he lost Director to Steven Soderbergh for his work in Traffic. I would expect The Counselor to be a major factor in several races for 2013.
It’s got a cool story line, an all-star cast, and proven Oscar pedigree involved. December’s The Monuments Men joins American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street as films worth mentioning in the Academy Awards race for 2013.
Last year, the Oscar for Best Picture went to Argo, from director-actor Ben Affleck and producers Grant Heslov and George Clooney. With Monuments, it’s Clooney behind the camera doing the directing duties along with producer Heslov. He’s also starring in it along with an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, and Bill Murray.
The plot (based on a true story) centers around a team tasked with saving pieces of art and other cultural items in World War II Germany before Hitler and the Nazis destroy them. The trailer was released today. As soon as the project was announced, The Monuments Men immediately vaulted to the top of the list of Academy friendly sounding pictures.
It’s worth noting that if Monuments delivers on its potential and does go on to win Best Picture, it would mark the third winning title in a row to feature John Goodman after 2011’s The Artist and 2012’s Argo. I’ll have to check, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a record.
The Monuments Men is likely to be a contender in the big race and Best Director. It remains to be seen if any of ensemble cast will be singled out (remember that only Alan Arkin was nominated for Argo). This is certainly one of my more anticipated fall releases. I’ll have more possible Oscar nominees for you to read about soon enough!
As we move towards the end of the summer 2013 movie season, I thought it would be interesting to revisit the movies that captured audience’s attention some 20 long summers ago. While crowds this summer have been drawn to Iron Man, the Minions, and Superman – it was a different story two decades ago. The top ten hits of summer ’93 reveals a surprising number of adult-oriented fare mixed with family pics… and especially an extinct species ruling everything. After going through the Top 10, I’ll also touch on some big misfires that season… equivalent to this year’s The Lone Ranger or White House Down.
Here we go:
10. Rookie of the Year
Domestic Gross: $53 million
In summer 1993, it was Dennis the Menace that was expected to be the season’s biggest family flick. It didn’t turn out that way (it was #11). Instead, its underwhelming performance paved way for Rookie of the Year to break into the top ten. A high-concept comedy about a 12 year-old breaking into the big leagues, Rookie was a solid performer that kind of came out of nowhere. And it’s got Gary Busey in it!
9. Rising Sun
Domestic Gross: $63 million
Based on a Michael Crichton bestseller, Rising Sun stars Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes as mismatched detectives investigating a murder that may have been perpetrated by the Yakuza. I remembered not liking this very much when I first saw it, but it’s grown on me since. This, by the way, will not be the end of seeing movies based on books by Crichton on this list. Far from it…
8. Dave
Domestic Gross: $63 million
A warmhearted and fun comedy from director Ivan Reitman, Dave stars Kevin Kline as a doppelganger for the President of the United States. When the real POTUS falls into a coma, Dave is recruited to become leader of the free world. If you haven’t seen it, it’s well worth it with fine performances from Kline and Sigourney Weaver as the First Lady.
7. Free Willy
Domestic Gross: $77 million
Another family flick that exceeded expectations, this whale tale captured the hearts of audiences… and it’s got that syrupy but effective Michael Jackson song in it too!
6. Cliffhanger
Domestic Gross: $84 million
After a number of box office disappointments in the late 80s and early 90s, Sylvester Stallone made a big comeback with Cliffhanger, a highly entertaining action flick. Also features some delicious overacting from John Lithgow as the main villain.
5. In the Line of Fire
Domestic Gross: $102 million
Fresh off winning Best Picture and Best Director for Unforgiven, Clint Eastwood kept the hot streak going with this terrific thriller about an aging Secret Service agent who might have met his match. John Malkovich is fabulous as a demented ex-Government operative who is determined to take out the President.
4. Sleepless in Seattle
Domestic Gross: $126 million
This effective and well-regarded rom com teamed up Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan with the late Nora Ephron for the first time in a loose remake of An Affair to Remember. The film was a huge hit for Hanks and later that year, he would star in Philadelphia, for which he won the first of two Oscars in a row.
3. The Firm
Domestic Gross: $158 million
Based on the enormous John Grisham bestseller, The Firm was eagerly awaited and it capitalized with huge b.o. numbers. From director Sydney Pollack, its all-star cast features Tom Cruise, Gene Hackman, Ed Harris, Holly Hunter, and…. Gary Busey!
2. The Fugitive
Domestic Gross: $183 million
Quite simply, The Fugitive is one of the greatest action thrillers ever made. Period. Based on the well-known TV series, Harrison Ford stars as Dr. Richard Kimble in director Andrew Davis’s thrilling pic. Tommy Lee Jones won Best Supporting Actor as the lawman chasing the good doc.
1. Jurassic Park
Domestic Gross: $357 million
There was little doubt that Steven Spielberg’s dino epic would be the summer’s #1 picture and it certainly delivered. For those too young to have experienced it in the theater, its visuals at the time were truly mind-blowing. They still are. Jurassic has spawned two inferior sequels (a fourth is being made), but the original is still a special film.
And now for the disappointments…
Many analysts 20 years ago had Last Action Hero pegged to be the summer’s #2 highest grosser after Jurassic. After all, it starred Arnold Schwarzenegger (the biggest movie star on the planet at the time) and was from director John McTiernan, who made genre classics Predator, Die Hard, and The Hunt for Red October. It didn’t turn out that way. Publicity for the pic was toxic with rampant stories of a bloated budget and bad test screenings. Last Action Hero grossed a disastrous $50 million. Truth be told, in hindsight, it’s far from a great film but not nearly as bad as its reputation.
Another high-profile flop: Sliver. Based on another bestseller (from Ira Levin), the film received a lot of publicity due to it being Sharon Stone’s follow-up to the blockbuster Basic Instinct. Audiences rejected it wisely after stories of a troubled production and negative reviews. It earned only $36 million. While the film is mediocre at best, it does feature UB40’s top-notch version of “Can’t Help Falling In Love”… so let’s all enjoy it, shall we?
In 1992, a “Saturday Night Live” skit turned into box office gold when Wayne’s World made a killing. Months later, the same could not be said for Coneheads. It made an anemic $21 million.
And finally… summer 1993 proved that a popular video game does not make a popular movie. Especially if it’s just completely terrible. That was the case for Super Mario Brothers starring Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, and Dennis Hopper. Mario and Luigi’s movie careers ended with an embarrassing $20 million gross.
Hope you’ve enjoyed this trip down memory lane, my friends!
It’s an incredibly busy weekend at the box office coming up with four releases out between Wednesday and Friday. They are: the Neill Blomkamp sci-fi actioner Elysium with Matt Damon, the raunchy comedy We’re the Millers with Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis, Disney’s animated Planes, and the family friendly sequel Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.
Per usual, I wrote extensive blog posts on all four titles which can be found linked below:
It is my belief that these four new pics will occupy the top four spots at the box office this weekend. Barring a major upset, Elysium should take top honors. Then it gets a little murky. I’m predicting Percy Jackson has a disappointing opening because I simply don’t think audiences are clamoring for a sequel. As you can see from my predictions, I’m predicting a photo finish between We’re the Millers and Planes for #2.
Last weekend’s champ 2 Guns will likely fall to fifth, unless one of the newbies really performs below expectations or The Smurfs 2 has an incredibly solid hold after a lackluster #3 debut last weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions:
1. Elysium
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
2. We’re the Millers
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million ($27.2 million projected five-day gross)
3. Planes
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million ($21.9 million projected five-day gross)
5. 2 Guns
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Be sure to check out http://boxofficeace.com/ where you can make your own predictions and try to beat me! And this coming weekend, I’ll have updates on the Facebook page with final results on the blog Sunday!
Disney’s Planes marks yet another animated feature competing for box office dollars this summer. We have seen family audiences perhaps beginning to be overwhelmed with a glut of product recently. Both Turbo and The Smurfs 2 have posted softer than expected numbers.
I’m not so sure Planes will reverse that trend. It was originally planned as a direct-to-DVD release before Disney changed their minds. Planes is a spin-off of the successful Cars franchise so there could be some built-in audience waiting.
Ultimately, Planes doesn’t look like the kind of animated event picture that Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 were earlier in the season. It could certainly exceed expectations, but if Smurfs 2 could only muster $27 million in five days, that probably doesn’t bode well here.
Planes opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million
For my prediction on the opening for Elysium, click here:
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headline the comedy We’re the Millers, opening Wednesday. The pic basically looks like a Vacation knockoff but who knows? It could have some funny moments and the trailers aren’t terrible. How’s that for faint praise?
The two stars have had luck collaborating before. In the summer of 2011, Aniston and Sudeikis were featured in Horrible Bosses, which grossed $28 million in its opening weekend and went to gross $117 million domestically. Those numbers would be heavenly for Warner Bros., especially considering the pic’s meager $30 million budget.
We’re the Millers probably won’t do Horrible Bosses numbers in its eventual gross, unless audiences really dig it and it develops solid legs in subsequent weekends. Still, with no other comedies really out there (The Heat and Grown Ups 2 have earned their cash by now), Millers could post solid numbers. I’d say a five-day gross in the mid to upper 20s is the most likely scenario.
We’re the Millers opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $27.2 million (five-day opening)
For my prediction on the opening for Elysium, click here:
Another family friendly sequel hits multiplexes this week as Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters opens Wednesday. Just this weekend, we saw audiences basically reject The Smurfs 2 as it had a $27.7 million five-day opening. That’s $8 million less than the original opened at in its first three days.
So the question is… are family audiences pumped to see a Percy Jackson sequel? I’m certainly not convinced. In February 2010, Percy Jackson&The Olympians: The Lightning Thief grossed an impressive $38.8 million over a four-day holiday weekend and went on to gross $88 million domestically. A good performance, yes, but not the kind of gross that automatically warrants a sequel.
As we saw with The Smurfs 2, family audiences may simply be overwhelmed. They’ve had plenty to choose from this summer with Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, The Smurfs 2 and so forth. Also, this Friday, Planes opens and that will serve as direct competition for Percy.
I believe Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters will be a disappointment and earn far less in its five-day gross than the original did in four days.
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million ($21.9 million over the five-day)
For my prediction on the Elysium opening, click here:
For many movie lovers, August 9th has been an eagerly awaited date on the summer calendar as Neill Blomkamp’s Elysium opens up. The director made a splash in the summer of 2009 when District 9 opened to rave reviews and robust box office (it got a Best Picture nomination too).
Elysium is a futuristic sci-fi thriller starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster. So far, its reviews have been mixed and it certainly isn’t receiving the love from critics that District 9 did.
As I see it, the $90 million budgeted pic is a bit of a question mark. Audiences have certainly had no shortage of sci-fi action flicks to watch this season. Will Elysium break out of the pack the way World War Z did with a $200 million gross? My thinking is it will not.
A more likely scenario is that Elysium performs similar to Pacific Rim, another hotly anticipated fanboy pic. That film opened to $37.2 million in July and I see Elysium doing around that number. I’ll say it does slightly less but in the ballpark.
Elysium opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
For my prediction on Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, click here:
As predicted, it was Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg atop the box office this weekend with 2 Guns. The pic earned a decent $27.4 million in its debut, just shy of my $28.9M projection. As you can see, this was right in line with most estimates, including my own.
It was The Smurfs 2 that was this weekend’s disappointment. The sequel came in below expectations, with $18.2 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $27.8 million since its Wednesday opening. That is well below my projections of $25.7M over the traditional weekend and $38.2M for the five-day. Family audiences may have just been overwhelmed by the volume of titles catering to them over the past couple of months and many decided to sit this one out.
The disappointing Smurfs performance allowed The Wolverine to come in second. Hugh Jackman’s superhero pic made $21.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $24M estimate. Rounding out the top five, The Conjuring held up slightly better than my projection with $13.7 million (I said $12.4M) and Despicable Me 2 was fifth with $10.4 million (on target with my $10.3M estimate).
Stay tuned for plenty of projections for next weekend’s openings on the blog tonight as Elysium, We’re the Millers, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, and Planes all debut.
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