I will freely admit that it’s a little tough to make a box office prediction on a film based on a series of teen fantasy novels that I know nothing about, but that’s what I’m here for!
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones is the first pic from a series of popular novels from Cassandra Clare and Screen Gems must be fairly confident because a sequel is already in the works. Bones stars a cast of relative unknowns headlined by Lily Collins who’s probably most known for playing Sandra Bullock’s daughter in The Blind Side.
Its late summer release date indicates to me that anticipation for this is nowhere near the levels of a Twilight flick, to say the least. However, the novels apparently have their followers and it could post decent results in its five-day debut.
Over the past few weeks, movies are tending to make less than what most figured, so that could be a factor here as well. And a lot of the film’s target audience is beginning the dreaded process of going back to school.
My best shot in the dark guess is that The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones manages a five-day gross in the mid twenties.
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones opening weekend prediction: $15.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday gross), $23.9 million (five-day gross)
For my prediction on the horror flick, You’re Next, click here:
The Butler definitely did it at the box office this weekend as the Lee Daniels pic opened to an impressive $25 million, above my $21.7M projection. The news was not so positive for the other three films debuting over the weekend. Kick-Ass 2 had a very disappointing #4 debut with only $13.5 million (below my $18.6M estimate). I was right on point with my Jobs prediction as it opened seventh with $6.7 million (I said $6.8M). However, I gave way too much credit to the thriller Paranoia, which had an atrocious #13 debut with $3.5 million… ouch! I predicted it would make $10.3M.
The hit comedy We’re the Millers held up extremely well in its second weekend with $17.7 million, above my $16.2M projection. Elysium was third with $13.6 million, a bit higher than my $12.2M estimate. Planes took fifth in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, just below my $14.1M prediction. Also in its second weekend, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters was sixth with $8.3 million (just above my $7.9M estimate).
Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have individual box office predictions posts for next weekend’s trio of new entries: The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, You’re Next, and The World’s End.
This evening the 2013 Fall Movie Preview gets kicked off with a trio of comedies featuring Robert De Niro. Apparently the guy never stops working and we’ll have September De Niro comedy, November De Niro comedy, and December De Niro comedy. This is in addition to Mr. De Niro appearing in David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle in December, but we’ll cover that picture later on.
Not too long ago on the blog, I wrote an extensive post about Bob’s decline in the film world over the past decade plus. You can find it here:
For quite some time now, De Niro has not exactly been choosy about what movies he picks to be a part of. New Year’s Eve anyone? Godsend? Hide and Seek?
Bob’s history with comedy has seen highs (Midnight Run, Analyze This, Meet the Parents) and lows (Analyze That, Little Fockers, Showtime). It remains to be seen what category this trio of titles falls into.
September De Niro comedy is The Family, where the star once again parodies the fact that he’s played several gangsters in much more serious pics. Here, De Niro plays an ex Mob boss in the witness protection program living in France. Tommy Lee Jones costars as the lawman tasked with keeping him in line and Michelle Pfeiffer plays De Niro’s wife. Pfeiffer did the Mafia parody thing some 25 years ago in Jonathan Demme’s well-regarded Married to the Mob. While this sounds like a tired premise, The Family has some talent behind it in the form of director Luc Besson. He’s directed good films such as 1991’s La Femme Nikita, 1994’s The Professional, and 1997’s The Fifth Element. I hope it works. The Family comes out September 13.
Moving to November De Niro comedy – we have Last Vegas, a high concept pic bringing together four Oscar winners: De Niro, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, and Kevin Kline. It basically looks like Grumpy Old Men meets Bachelor Party but the impressive cast could bode well at the box office, as long as its not terrible. Jon Turtletaub, best known for directing the National Treasure flicks, is behind the camera. Last Vegas is out November 1.
And, finally, December De Niro comedy is Grudge Match, which teams De Niro and Sylvester Stallone as grumpy old boxers who engage in one last bout. Of course, it’s not lost on the makers of the pic that both leads have starred in very well-known pugilistic tales before (the Rocky franchise and Raging Bull). Like Last Vegas, the high concept could work with audiences and Warner Bros. has scheduled its release for Christmas Day. NOTE: NO TRAILER FOR THIS AT PRESS TIME.
So if you’re in the mood for a comedy this autumn and you like De Niro, have no fear. This is a gold mine for you!
The 2013 Fall Movie Preview will continue shortly with more comedy offerings that don’t have Bob in it….
Think there’s too many sequels this summer? Of course you probably do. We’ve had Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, 2 Fast 2 Furious, The Hangover Part III, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, The Smurfs 2, Grown Ups 2, Red 2, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters. That’s ten by my expert counting abilities… or the number of fingers on both your hands (I hope). And there’s Kick-Ass 2 opening Friday. That goes up to eleven.
If we journey back ten summers ago, though, 2013 seems a little light when it comes to sequels. The summer of 2003 gave us 14, yes 14, sequels. Some did well. Others… not so much. Last week, I went over the summer of 1993 and showed you the Top 10 Hits from twenty years ago.
Tonight, we do the same for 10 years ago where half the list is sequels. I’ll cover the others as well, in addition to some notorious Lone Ranger size flops from a decade past. Let’s go!
10. Seabiscuit
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Before he moved on to direct the first Hunger Games picture, Gary Ross had a sizable hit with this true life horse tale starring Tobey Maguire, Jeff Bridges, Chris Cooper, and William H. Macy. It picked up a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. There was no sequel for this… though Seabiscuit: Back in the Saddle begs to be made.
9. 2 Fast 2 Furious
Domestic Gross: $127 million
Call me crazy, but I’m in the minority in believing that this sequel actually improved on the first one. 2 Fast 2 Furious knows it’s trash but has fun with it. It did not match the $144M domestic haul of the original but that didn’t stop this film franchise from rolling on… and it still is.
8. Hulk
Domestic Gross: $132 million
Don’t let the fact that it ranks #8 fool you. Hulk from director Ang Lee was considered a pretty big disappointment after it managed its $132M gross after a massive $70 million opening. Why did it fall so fast? Well, audiences pretty much hated it. I don’t think it’s terrible, but it left much to be desired. 2008’s The Incredible Hulk was an improvement.
7. Bad Boys II
Domestic Gross: $138 million
Will Smith’s second sequel in two summers (2002’s Men in Black II came first) was exactly what you’d expect from Michael Bay: big and kinda dumb with elaborate action sequences and lotsa stuff blowin’ up!
6. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
Domestic Gross: $150 million
It’s certainly third in quality after the terrific first two entries in the series, but Terminator 3 is passable entertainment (even if Arnie is starting to show his age by this time).
5. X2: X-Men United
Domestic Gross: $214 million
Generally considered the best of the franchise so far (I agree, though First Class is close), X2 solidified the X-Men series as one of high quality after a very solid first entry in 2000.
4. Bruce Almighty
Domestic Gross: $242 million
Jim Carrey experienced some box office disappointments in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but Bruce Almighty brought him back in a huge way. He was wise enough not to participate in the disappointing sequel, Evan Almighty.
3. The Matrix Reloaded
Domestic Gross: $281 million
Many analysts figured this was the film to beat in the summer of 2003. Its $281M haul was terrific, but it left some moviegoers wanting more. They took their frustration out on the third entry, The Matrix Revolutions, which came out later that year (it earned a mere $139 million). My opinion: does it hold a candle to the original? No. Does it have one of the greatest action sequences ever? Yes… the freeway chase.
2. Pirate of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Domestic Gross: $305 million
It may be easy to forget now, but Johnny Depp was not a bankable star ten years ago and Pirates was certainly not considered a surefire hit. Then it came out and audiences went crazy over it (Johnny even got his first Oscar nomination for it). Sequels of lesser quality would follow… and are still coming.
1. Finding Nemo
Domestic Gross: $339 million
Pixar managed to rule the summer of 2003 with this fish tale that family audiences embraced. The studio is finally getting around to making a sequel which comes out in 2015.
And now for the other sequels…
There was Spy Kids 3D, which earned a solid $111 million. And American Wedding, which took in $104 million. Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle was a bit of a letdown. It made $100 million but the original made $125M. There was Legally Blonde 2, which earned $90 million (barely less than the first in 2001). Freddy vs. Jason scared up $82 million. Rugrats Go Wild took in $39 million. Jeepers Creepers 2 made $35 million.
Lots of sequels, huh? There are two more, though, that were major duds. First – Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life. The Angelina Jolie flick made $65 million, only half of what the 2001 original earned ($131M). Ouch.
And then there’s the horrible movie idea that is Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd. Apparently New Line wasn’t bright enough (dumb… if you will) to realize that audiences might not want to see a Dumb and Dumber pic without Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels. Who knew? The result: a $26 million gross. The first one made $127 million. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb… DUMB!!!
There were more box office flops that weren’t sequels. How about The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, an ill-conceived idea based on Alan Moore’s graphic novel that managed only $66 million. It also marked Sean Connery’s final film appearance unless he decides to come out of retirement (unlikely).
We have Hollywood Homicide, which proved that moviegoers weren’t keen on a buddy cop comedy with Harrison Ford and Josh Hartnett. It earned just $30 million.
And finally… Gigli. This Ben Affleck-Jennifer Lopez vanity vehicle is one of the more well-known flops of all time. The Bennifer collabo made an embarassing $6 million.
And there you have it, my friends! Your summer movie history from ten whole years ago…
Another weekend… another four movies opening in an already crowded marketplace. This Friday, the four newbies are Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, and Jobs. It was just this past weekend that four new titles populated numbers 1-4 on the chart: Elysium, We’re the Millers, Planes, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.
Per usual, I have already written prediction posts on the newcomers and they can be found here:
Many seem to be predicting a Kick-Ass 2 victory this coming weekend and that’s certainly possible. However, I’m going with Lee Daniels’ The Butler taking top honors. I don’t expect good debuts for either Paranoia or Jobs.
What will be interesting is how the second weekends are for last weekend’s four pictures. While Elysium opened first, it seems most vulnerable to a hefty sophomore frame fall. Audiences only gave it a B Cinemascore grade, which is not too good. I believe Elysium will drop much bigger than We’re the Millers and Planes.
Due to the influx of new titles competing with last weekend’s entries, I’m doing a Top 8 for this weekend instead of a Top 5. Here we go:
1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
2. Kick-Ass 2
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. We’re the Millers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Planes
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. Elysium
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)
6. Paranoia
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
7. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
8. Jobs
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
And there you have it! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am this coming weekend when I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page with a full report on the blog Sunday. Stay tuned!
A biopic of one of the world’s most visionary figures headlined by… Ashton Kutcher? Shall we call it Dude, Where’s My iPhone? (I’m sorry).
The “Punk’d” star himself plays late Apple founder Steve Jobs in Jobs and the majority of the publicity surrounding the project has mostly focused on Ashton’s casting. While everyone knows the name Steve Jobs and most use products he’s created, I don’t believe that’ll necessarily translate into box office dollars.
Truthfully, Jobs seems like it’d be more suited as a cable TV premiere than a theatrical release. Reviews have been mixed at best and the marketing campaign has been fairly quiet. There’s two other pics opening this weekend going for an adult audiences (Lee Daniels’ The Butler and Paranoia) and Jobs is likely to get lost in the shuffle.
With four new titles opening this weekend, I’ll predict most moviegoers will be using their Apple products to book tickets to those other films and not the bio about Apple’s founder.
Jobs opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
For my prediction on Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:
Collectively the three stars of Paranoia have starred in some of the most beloved film franchises we have: Star Wars. The Hunger Games. Harry Potter. Indiana Jones. The Dark Knight trilogy.
All of which will mean precisely jack squat, I believe, when it comes to Paranoia‘s box office performance. The thriller about high tech and corporate espionage stars Liam Hemsworth, Harrison Ford, and Gary Oldman. Yes, it has recognizable stars but the pic seems to be generating very little buzz and reviews so far have been only fair.
With an extremely busy marketplace, Paranoia seems to be the kind of film that’ll struggle to find an audience. I believe a double digit opening gross is questionable. On the bright side, it has only a $15 million budget. I’ll say it gets to double digits, but just barely. Paranoia will likely make in three days what Liam’s Hunger Games: Catching Fire will earn in its first hour.
Paranoia opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
For my prediction on Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:
In the spring of 2010, Kick-Ass posted decent box office numbers with an opening of $19.8 million and an eventual domestic haul of $48 million. These numbers certainly do not indicate an automatic sequel. However, since its release, Kick-Ass has developed into a cult hit with plenty of fervent admirers (I count myself among them).
The superhero action comedy brings back stars Aaron Johnson, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, and Chloe Grace Moretz. This time around, there’s no Nicolas Cage to be found but Jim Carrey is in the mix. And Carrey’s participation in the project is where Kick-Ass 2 has received most of its publicity… and not in a good way. Carrey distanced himself from the film, citing its violence and the Sandy Hook massacre as the reason for his regret in appearing in the picture.
The marketing for Kick-Ass 2 has seemed a bit below the radar, but perhaps the studio is simply assuming its fans will turn out. I’m sure a number of them will, but a more robust advertising campaign could have helped.
An opening of over $20 million is certainly a possibility, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Kick-Ass 2 may struggle to match the original’s opening weekend. We saw one such example just a few weeks ago when Red 2 failed to match its predecessor’s opening take. I will predict Kick-Ass 2 falls just shy of the first’s debut.
Kick-Ass 2 opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my prediction on the opening of Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:
Originally scheduled for an autumn release, Lee Daniels’ The Butler was pushed up to summer and the Weinstein Company seems to think they have a hit on their hands. Do they? Just maybe.
The picture tells the real life story of a White House butler (Forest Whitaker) who worked at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. from the Eisenhower to Reagan administrations. We’ve got an array of well-known actors playing historical figures that includes John Cusack as President Nixon, James Marsden as President Kennedy, Liev Schreiber as President Johnson, Alan Rickman as President Reagan, Robin Williams as President Eisenhower, and Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan.
And… there’s the Oprah factor. Ms. Winfrey plays the butler’s wife and this marks the media mogul’s first major film role since 1998’s Beloved. Her participation in this project alone is likely to get some of her followers to the theater.
A historical pic opening in August is certainly a gamble that the studio is hoping will pay off. The Butler has a couple of things going for it: it seems to be garnering positive reviews so far and audiences may be ready for a more adult-themed experience in the midst of endless sci-fi and superhero flicks. Additionally, The Butler is one of the only movies this season that is marketed to an African-American audience and that should help. This spring, the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 exceeded expectations with a $27 million opening weekend. Could The Butler open in that ballpark?
I would say the low of expectations would be in the $15-$18 million dollar range and the high end would be the $27M that 42 garnered. My prediction is that The Butler opens in the middle of that range and could have a nice run in subsequent weeks if audiences respond well to it.
Lee Daniels’ The Butler box office prediction: $21.7 million
In a weekend where four new pictures entered the marketplace, I did manage to get the order of the top five called correctly. However, one film in particular managed to easily surpass my expectations, while the others debuted more or less in line with my predictions.
Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi actioner Elysium with Matt Damon took the #1 position with $30.5 million, a bit below my $33.7M estimate. Elysium is the highly publicized Blomkamp follow-up to his 2009 breakthrough District 9. Reviews were decent though not as strong as the aforementioned predecessor, which was nominated for Best Picture and took in $115 million domestically. Elysium received a B Cinemascore grade, which generally indicates audiences weren’t wild about what they saw. The pic will likely suffer a hefty drop next weekend and it appears unlikely it will match District‘s haul stateside.
It was the #2 debut that took me by surprise. We’re the Millers, the raunchy comedy with Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis, had a rock solid start with $26.6 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $38 million since its Wednesday opening. That is well above my predictions of $19.4M over the traditional weekend and $27.2M over the five day. Clearly, Millers marketing campaign worked and crowds were ready to see a new comedy.
Disney’s Planes opened in third with a decent though unspectacular $22.5 million, which did exceed my $19.4M prediction. The weekend’s other kid flick had a fair debut as the sequel Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters grossed $14.6 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $23.5 million since its Wednesday start. Its traditional weekend take was slightly lower than my $15.8M estimate while its five day gross was slightly higher than my $21.9M prediction.
In the five spot, last weekend’s champ 2 Guns with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg dropped further than I figured in its second weekend with $11.1 million (I said $14.3M).
And there’s your results! And now begins the work of predicting next weekend’s four new flicks: Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, and Jobs. I’ll have those up on the blog soon enough.
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