Month: August 2013

Box Office Results: August 23-25

There’s a very old saying that goes like this:

In the act of being wrong, be it best to be spectacularly wrong. – Unknown

OK, folks. That’s not a real saying. It should be though right? People? Come on! Help me out here!

I begin this way today because I was spectacularly wrong with my box office predictions this weekend. It happens. In a strange way, that’s the fun of doing these predictions week after week. You think you’re pretty good and every once in a while a movie comes along where you completely blow it.

You’re Next would be that picture of spectacular wrongness. It’s been a good year for horror flicks and I incorrectly estimated You’re Next with its cool TV spots would debut at #1 with $21.6 million. Wrong, wrong, wrong. It gained zero traction with audiences, opening with a thud at #7 with a measly $7 million. Ouch.

Lee Daniels’ The Butler actually retained its #1 status with $17 million, a bit below my $18.1M prediction. The Jennifer Aniston comedy We’re the Millers keeps chugging along in its third weekend. It was #2 with $13.5 million, above my $11 million projection.

The news wasn’t good for The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Based on a series of popular teen fantasy novels, the success of the books didn’t translate to the silver screen. It made $9.3 million over the three-day weekend and $14 million since its Wednesday opening to place third. That is well below my respective three and five day estimates of $15.7M and $23.9M. There has been a sequel planned for this one for some time. I question that now.

In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to the fact that the Simon Pegg/Nick Frost comedy The World’s End was opening on a relatively low number of screens. It took in $8.9 million for fourth. That’s a decent debut for it, but below my $12.4M projection.

And Disney’s Planes rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I made no estimate for it because I didn’t think it’d be in the top five (thanks, You’re Next).

So not a great week for yours truly, but I’ll soldier forward my friends! Look for predictions on the blog later today for the trio of Labor Day newbies: Getaway with Ethan Hawke, Closed Circuit with Eric Bana, and (what we’ve all been waiting for) One Direction: This Is Us.

Oscar Watch: Saving Mr. Banks

Oscar voters tend to love movies about their town and Saving Mr. Banks not only centers on Hollywood, but details the making of a beloved picture and has A-list talent involved.

The film centers on the production of 1964’s Mary Poppins, casting Emma Thompson as the book’s author P.L. Travers with Tom Hanks portraying the legendary Walt Disney. Judging from the trailer, the collaboration of Travers and Disney was not always a smooth one. John Lee Hancock is behind the camera and his last feature was an audience pleaser and Best Picture nominee, 2009’s The Blind Side. The supporting cast includes Paul Giamatti, Jason Schwartzman, Bradley Whitford, and Colin Farrell.

Saving Mr. Banks is set for a December 20th release and I would expect it to be in the conversation for not just Best Picture, but also Thompson in the Best Actress race (she won in 1992 for Howards End) and Hanks for Best Supporting Actor (he won the lead actor category in 1993 and 1994 for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump). For Hanks, he will also be in contention for Best Actor for this fall’s Captain Phillips. Hard to believe, but it’s been 13 years since his last nomination for 2000’s Cast Away. 

The picture is the latest example of one to watch come Oscar nomination time. Coming up soon on the blog, I’ll do my first round of ridiculously early Oscar predictions. Stay tuned!

2013 Fall Movie Preview: Thor: The Dark World, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

If you haven’t yet had your fill of sequels this summer season, have no fear. There’s three big ones coming to the silver screen this fall. Four actually. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues was already covered in another post that you may peruse here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/2013-fall-movie-preview-anchorman-2-the-legend-continues-jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-delivery-man/

We begin with Thor: The Dark World, the follow-up to 2011’s original which grossed an impressive $181 million. Chris Hemsworth, Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, and Tom Hiddleston are all back. Certainly the exposure of Thor in The Avengers should help the numbers. Iron Man 3 got an Avengers bump this summer as it opened stronger than the second installment. Kenneth Branagh is not back as director (he’ll have Jack Ryan in December… more on that film in another post). Now it’s Alan Taylor behind the camera. He’s known mostly for his TV work, having directed episodes of “The Sopranos”, “Mad Men”, and “Game of Thrones”. Thor: The Dark World is out November 8.

November 27th brings us The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the second pic in that franchise. In the spring of last year, the original earned a fantastic $408 million domestically and the sequel is likely to have the highest opening of any movie this fall. Once again, we have a new director taking over. Gary Ross is out and Francis Lawrence (I Am Legend) is in. Jennifer Lawrence (a newly minted Oscar winner since the original’s release), Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Donald Sutherland, and Stanley Tucci all return with Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jeffrey Wright, and Amanda Plummer joining the mix.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is the second of the trilogy and Peter Jackson’s pic will look to match the $303 million domestic performance of last winter’s original. The familiar faces return: Martin Freeman, Ian McKellen, Cate Blanchett, Hugo Weaving, Orlando Bloom, and Christopher Lee, among others. While the first was a big hit, critical reaction was mixed and we’ll see if the reviews for Desolation keep that trend going or move it into Lord of the Rings acclaimed territory. The picture will be released December 13.

That’s all for now, my friends! I’ll be back with another installment of my 2013 Fall Movie Preview soon enough.

Batlash! Ben Affleck as Batman: My Thoughts

Well I guess I wouldn’t be a responsible movie blogger without offering some commentary on the surprising news last night that Ben Affleck has been cast as Batman/Bruce Wayne.

Affleck will make his debut as the Caped Crusaders in July 2015 in the Man of Steel sequel, pairing him alongside Henry Cavill as Superman. To say the least, there’s been a bit of a “Batlash” (I’m sorry) since the announcement. Some have pointed out that Affleck has played a superhero before to middling results. That would be 2003’s Daredevil. 

Many (including I) figured Warner Bros. would go with a relative unknown, like they did with Cavill. The most surprising thing to me is that Affleck took the role. Mr. Affleck has got quite a directing career going on right now that culminated this year when Argo won the Academy Award for Best Picture. There is no question that Affleck pretty much has his pick of the litter for any project he chooses to direct. For him to take on this iconic role was unexpected.

So what do I think? Honestly, I haven’t figured that out yet. Affleck is a serviceable actor but not a great one (he’s a better director if you ask me). It’s hard to imagine him as Batman. Here’s where I see a ray of light: major casting announcements have been poorly received before and then we were all proven wrong. Michael Keaton was not a popular choice to play the same role, but he was fine. Same goes for Daniel Craig as James Bond. And Tom Cruise as Lestat in Interview with the Vampire. Truth be told, filling the shoes of Christian Bale is a tall order for anyone and Warner Bros. decided to go in the direction of casting a hugely famous face.

We’ll see how Affleck does, but my main hope is that the sequel improves on Man of Steel, which I found disappointing. You can read my review of it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/23/man-of-steel-review/

So while I’m not outraged about the casting as others are, I’m skeptical. I hope Affleck proves me wrong and I hope the makers of the film put forward a better product than they did this summer.

2013 Fall Movie Preview: Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, Delivery Man

Tonight we press forward with my 2013 Fall Movie Preview with four comedies coming to us over the next few months. I already covered three comedies last week that all happen to feature Robert De Niro – The Family, Last Vegas, and Grudge Match. You can read that post here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/2013-fall-movie-preview-the-family-last-vegas-grudge-match/

We begin with the return of Johnny Knoxville and many of his Jackass collaborators in Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. The picture (out October 25) features Knoxville as a popular character from the show – an elderly grandpa who displays inappropriate behavior with his grandson in front of unsuspecting (and real) people. Judging from the trailer, this pic seems to be done in a Borat/Bruno style and I must say it looks pretty darn funny.

If you’re Christmas wish list includes Tyler Perry’s return as Madea… well, you’re in luck! This is the 8th (yes 8th) entry in the popular Madea franchise and there’s no reason to think this won’t perform just as well as the others. A Madea Christmas is out December 13. No trailer is available at press time.

Vince Vaughn has had a fairly bad run of luck with his recent comedies, most recently The Watch and The Internship. He’ll try to reverse those fortunes with The Delivery Man, where he plays a sperm donor who unknowingly has fathered 533 children (take that Octomom). The trailer isn’t overly effective, but Vaughn has to eventually break out of his rut, right? Not sure if The Delivery Man will do it, but who knows? It comes out November 22.

And now to what is surely this season’s most anticipated comedy, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues. It’s been nine and a half years since Ron, Champ, Brian, and Brick graced the silver screen in summer 2004. Upon its release, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy was a solid though unspectacular box office performer (it earned $85 million). Since then, however, the original has taken on a life of its own. It’s probably the most quoted comedy of the past decade and it’s earned a reputation as being one of the great comedies of recent times. In addition to returning cast members Will Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, Christina Applegate, Vince Vaughn, Fred Willard, Chris Parnell, and Luke Wilson, look for Kristin Wiig to join the party. And there’s reported cameos from Harrison Ford, Tina Fey, Jim Carrey, and others. Obviously the pressure is on for the sequel to recapture the magic. We will see and I know I’ll be there on December 20 to find out!

The 2013 Fall Movie Preview will continue soon with some high-profile sequels that bring back Katniss and Thor. Stay tuned!

 

Oscar Watch: Lee Daniels’ The Butler

It’s the #1 film in America and the box office road ahead continues to look bright. It has one of the most recognizable celebrities in the world costarring in it and going out of her way to promote it.

The commercial success and mostly positive reviews for Lee Daniels’ The Butler has virtually assured that it’s in the conversation for Oscar consideration. As mentioned, reviews have been good… but not great. The film stands at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a fine number, though most Oscar nominated pictures go beyond that.

It may not matter in this case due to its now known commercial appeal. The Butler may very well occupy the Best Picture nomination slot that The Blind Side occupied in 2009 (66% on RT) and The Help filled in 2011 (77% RT score). In other words, it could get the spot for a movie that critics were pretty cool with and audiences loved. The Butler received an A Cinemascore grade, which obviously means crowds are digging it.

If The Butler follows the path of The Blind Side and The Help, that would mean a Best Picture nomination and not a Best Director nomination. I see that as the strongest possibility.

As far as the actors, the popularity of The Butler advances the chances of Forest Whitaker being nominated for Best Actor and Oprah Winfrey getting a nod for Best Supporting Actress. At press time, the Best Actor race looks like it could be crowded and Whitaker’s nomination is certainly not assured. With Oprah, I’m more convinced of her chances. Many critics have singled out her performance and, well… it’s Oprah for goodness sake! She’s one of the most famous people in the world and I’m sure the Academy would love to have her in the mix.

Obviously, the bulk of awards contenders have yet to be released (this happens in the final four months of the year). Still, The Butler looks to be a factor this awards season.

RIP Elmore Leonard, James Gandolfini, and Dennis Farina: The Get Shorty Connection

Over the past two months, the movie world has lost three important artists to the medium that happen to have one first-rate picture in common. Today’s post will not only touch on that film, but their other contributions to both the large and small screen.

Elmore Leonard died today at age 87. One of the most celebrated crime novelists of all time, Mr. Leonard’s works have been adapted many times into film. Some have been critical and box office failures, such as 2002’s Big Trouble with Tim Allen and 2004’s The Big Bounce with Owen Wilson.

However, there is plenty of quality material to choose from based on the author’s canon:

52 Pick Up, a well-done 1986 thriller with Roy Scheider and Ann-Margaret

Characters created by Leonard are the basis for the acclaimed FX series “Justified”

When Quentin Tarantino was faced with the unenviable task of following up his 1994 game changing Pulp Fiction, he turned to Elmore Leonard’s literary works by adapting his novel “Rum Punch” into Jackie Brown. The result was a fantastic marriage between the voices of two brilliant writers.

Just six months after Jackie Brown came another great film based on Leonard’s work from one of the finest directors of the past 25 years. That would 1998’s Out of Sight from Steven Soderbergh that featured electric chemistry between George Clooney and Jennifer Lopez.

In Out of Sight, the father of Jennifer Lopez was played by Dennis Farina. In July, Mr. Farina passed away at age 69. Many perhaps know Farina best for his television work, including a two-year stint on “Law&Order”. I first noticed Farina for his magnificent guest role as a bad guy on “Miami Vice”. Farina would move on to star in a short-lived yet critically acclaimed series from “Vice” creator Michael Mann called “Crime Story”.

For me personally, my most beloved Farina role in film will always be as mobster Jimmy Serrano in 1988’s action comedy Midnight Run with Robert De Niro and Charles Grodin. It’s one of my favorite movies ever made. Farina also made his mark in 1986’s Manhunter and 2001’s Snatch, among others.

In June, James Gandolfini passed away at age 51. Like Farina, Gandolfini’s signature roles were on TV. Well, one role. And that would, of course, be that of Tony Soprano on HBO’s “The Sopranos”. I won’t get into detail expounding on the importance of that show other than state the obvious: “The Sopranos” is one of best TV shows ever and Gandolfini had the role of a lifetime in it.

Few actors have the opportunity to play a character as amazingly developed (through writing and his own performance) as Gandolfini. And the actor’s contribution to films were significant, too. He was basically the lone bright spot in 2001’s The Mexican with Brad Pitt and Julia Roberts. He appeared in blockbuster pictures including Crimson Tide and Zero Dark Thirty, where he portrayed CIA director Leon Panetta.

Much like Farina in Midnight Run, there is a signature Gandolfini film role for me. 1993’s True Romance directed by the late Tony Scott and with a screenplay from Quentin Tarantino gives Gandolfini a small but unforgettable role as a hitman who terrorizes Patricia Arquette. It’s a classic scene.

The talents of Leonard, Farina, and Gandolfini are all on display in 1995’s Get Shorty, directed by Barry Sonnenfeld. The picture may star John Travolta, Gene Hackman, Rene Russo, and Danny DeVito, but Farina and Gandolfini both provide rock solid support in a very entertaining effort. Based on Elmore Leonard’s novel, Get Shorty is the tale of a hitman (Travolta) who gets into the movie business and finds out the two professions share a lot in common. If you haven’t seen Get Shorty, it’s well worth your time. And it’s worth it even more now as a tribute to three gentlemen who contributed so much to film and television.

RIP Elmore Leonard

RIP Dennis Farina

RIP James Gandolfini

 

Box Office Predictions: August 23-25

Three new films enter the market this week as The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, You’re Next, and The World’s End debut to compete with the second weekend of the hit Lee Daniels’ The Butler. I made my predictions for the three newbies yesterday and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/

While the predictions might not necessarily show it, I can easily see three scenarios where The Mortal Instruments, The Butler, or You’re Next open at #1.

The Butler had a strong $24.6 million opening this past weekend and earned a terrific A Cinemascore average. That means its drop in its sophomore frame shouldn’t be much. For some context, The Help opened in the same August weekend two years ago at $26 million, had a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, and dropped only 23% in its second week. If the new entries don’t open well (which is certainly possible), it could mean The Butler is #1 two weeks in a row.

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones is based on a popular series of teen novels and youngsters could turn out in droves. The fact that it opens Wednesday should dilute its Friday-to-Sunday gross. I’m also going on the rather low end of expectations for the title, but it could certainly make more than my estimate and take the top spot.

This brings us to You’re Next, which like The Purge, has come out of nowhere over the past few days with effective TV spots. Horror films tend to exceed analysts expectations and, therefore, I’m going on the high end of predictions and saying it will be the picture leading this coming weekend’s frame.

The World’s End with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost isn’t really a contender for #1 as I see it and should perform similar numbers to the duo’s last picture, Paul.

And with that, my top 5 predictions:

1. You’re Next

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

3. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.9 million (five-day gross)

4. The World’s End

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 39%)

I’ll have updates posted on the Facebook page this weekend as early numbers come in with final results on the blog Sunday.

The World’s End Box Office Prediction

The World’s End is the latest sci-fi comedy from stars Simon Pegg and Nick Frost. You may know this duo from Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, and Paul.

There is no question that there’s a built-in audience for these performers and their pictures. The question is: how big? I think an appropriate barometer is their last film together, 2011’s Paul. It opened to a decent $13 million opening weekend and took in $37 million domestically. 

Reviews have been solid and The World’s End stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some steep competition out there. We’re the Millers is continuing to bring in comedy crowds and I’m predicting horror pic You’re Next will have a healthy debut.

Ultimately, I believe this will open pretty much right on par with Paul two years ago.

The World’s End opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my prediction on You’re Next, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

You’re Next Box Office Prediction

Very little was said about the Lionsgate horror flick You’re Next until recently, but the pic seems to be gaining some traction with rather effective TV spots that come complete with creepy animal masks!

The home invasion horror title actually debuted at the Toronto Film Festival all the way back in 2011 and received critical acclaim (it’s at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes currently). You’re Next is starting to remind me of The Purge, which came out of nowhere in June and took in a fantastic $34 million in its first weekend.

I don’t believe You’re Next will approach that number. Some audiences may have had their fill for the moment of the horror genre with The Purge and especially The Conjuring having done great business this season. Still, horror flicks do tend to debut higher than analysts typically expect. That could certainly be the case here. While some prognosticators will likely predict an opening in the teens, I’ll say You’re Next tops $20M.

You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $21.6 million

For my prediction on The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The World’s End, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/