Three new films enter the market this week as The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, You’re Next, and The World’s End debut to compete with the second weekend of the hit Lee Daniels’ The Butler. I made my predictions for the three newbies yesterday and they can be found here:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/
While the predictions might not necessarily show it, I can easily see three scenarios where The Mortal Instruments, The Butler, or You’re Next open at #1.
The Butler had a strong $24.6 million opening this past weekend and earned a terrific A Cinemascore average. That means its drop in its sophomore frame shouldn’t be much. For some context, The Help opened in the same August weekend two years ago at $26 million, had a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, and dropped only 23% in its second week. If the new entries don’t open well (which is certainly possible), it could mean The Butler is #1 two weeks in a row.
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones is based on a popular series of teen novels and youngsters could turn out in droves. The fact that it opens Wednesday should dilute its Friday-to-Sunday gross. I’m also going on the rather low end of expectations for the title, but it could certainly make more than my estimate and take the top spot.
This brings us to You’re Next, which like The Purge, has come out of nowhere over the past few days with effective TV spots. Horror films tend to exceed analysts expectations and, therefore, I’m going on the high end of predictions and saying it will be the picture leading this coming weekend’s frame.
The World’s End with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost isn’t really a contender for #1 as I see it and should perform similar numbers to the duo’s last picture, Paul.
And with that, my top 5 predictions:
1. You’re Next
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)
3. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones
Predicted Gross: $15.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.9 million (five-day gross)
4. The World’s End
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
5. We’re the Millers
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 39%)
I’ll have updates posted on the Facebook page this weekend as early numbers come in with final results on the blog Sunday.
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