Box Office Predictions: August 16-18

Another weekend… another four movies opening in an already crowded marketplace. This Friday, the four newbies are Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, and Jobs. It was just this past weekend that four new titles populated numbers 1-4 on the chart: Elysium, We’re the Millers, Planes, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.

Per usual, I have already written prediction posts on the newcomers and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/lee-daniels-the-butler-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/kick-ass-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/paranoia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/jobs-box-office-prediction/

Many seem to be predicting a Kick-Ass 2 victory this coming weekend and that’s certainly possible. However, I’m going with Lee Daniels’ The Butler taking top honors. I don’t expect good debuts for either Paranoia or Jobs.

What will be interesting is how the second weekends are for last weekend’s four pictures. While Elysium opened first, it seems most vulnerable to a hefty sophomore frame fall. Audiences only gave it a B Cinemascore grade, which is not too good. I believe Elysium will drop much bigger than We’re the Millers and Planes. 

Due to the influx of new titles competing with last weekend’s entries, I’m doing a Top 8 for this weekend instead of a Top 5. Here we go:

1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

2. Kick-Ass 2

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Planes

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Elysium

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

6. Paranoia

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

7. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

8. Jobs

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

And there you have it! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am this coming weekend when I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page with a full report on the blog Sunday. Stay tuned!