The Wolverine Box Office Prediction

This Friday, we get our second summer 2013 iteration of the comic book movie do-over. In June, we saw Man of Steel, which was made in part to take the bad taste out of moviegoers mouths for 2006’s Superman Returns.

Now – it’s The Wolverine, in part made to achieve a similar feat in relation to 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That pic made a lot of money, but was met with derision from critics and a “meh” response from audiences.

The Wolverine is the sixth film taking place in X-Men world and it’s Hugh Jackman’s sixth go-round as Wolverine (remember that humorous cameo in First Class)? Here’s a handy recap of the openings and final domestic grosses of those that came before it:

X-Men (2000)

Opening: $54.4 million. Total Domestic Gross: $157.2 million.

X2: X-Men United (2003)

Opening: $85.5 million. Total Domestic Gross: $214.9 million.

X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)

Opening: $102.7 million. Total Domestic Gross: $234.3 million.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)

Opening: $85 million. Total Domestic Gross: $179.8 million.

X-Men: First Class (2011)

Opening: $55.1 million. Total Domestic Gross: $146.4 million.

You can see a pretty major gap between 2009’s Wolverine pic ($85M) and First Class from two years ago ($55M). Strangely enough, while First Class is the lowest-grossing entry of the series, it was met with critical acclaim and its sequel (out next summer) is likely to open much bigger.

As mentioned, the same cannot be said for the other stand-alone Wolverine pic. So what does this mean for The Wolverine? Early reviews have suggested it’s a considerable improvement on the 2009 flick. That said, I simply don’t see it quite approaching that pic’s $85 million debut.

A more likely scenario is a gross somewhere in the middle of the last two X-Men related features. An opening above $70 million is certainly possible. So is an opening on par with First Class‘s  mid-50s debut. I’ll go somewhere on the high end of that range for a pretty solid opening that would rank fourth of the six.

The Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $67.4 million