Box Office Predictions: July 12-14

This weekend at the box office, I am predicting that an animated sequel will be #1 for the fourth weekend in a row. That means Despicable Me 2 is my selection to repeat at the top spot (Monsters University was 1st for two weeks prior). Well-received animated features rarely drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames and I don’t expect this one to.

My forecast means that I am not predicting Pacific Rim to open as big as some expect. While my prediction reflects a fairly decent opening, I see it doing below $40 million. My full blog post outlining my Pacific prediction can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is Adam Sandler’s first sequel, Grown Ups 2. In this case, I don’t see it matching the $40 million debut that its predecessor earned in 2010. My full forecast on Grown Ups 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Last weekend, Disney’s The Lone Ranger debuted to very disappointing results. I also wrote an extensive post about its failure right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-lone-ranger-bombs-an-analysis/

In its second weekend, Ranger is likely to lose more than half its audience. If so, this may well allow The Heat to only drop to fourth with Ranger rounding out the top five.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

2. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook page over the weekend with a full blog report Sunday. And I’ll be back with more box office predictions very soon for next weekend when FOUR titles open – Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!