2013 Oscar Predictions: A Mid-Year Report

Well, we’re at the midpoint of the 2013 movie season and so it’s time to reveal what pictures have come out that could receive Oscar nominations.

The truth is… not many. At all. It is not rare for very few Best Picture contenders to be released in the first half of a calendar year. In 2010, only Toy Story 3 was among the ten nominees to be released in that time frame. In 2011, only Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris out of nine nominees. In 2012, only Beasts of the Southern Wild out of nine contenders.

2013 looks no different. While Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness were well-reviewed and performed great at the box office, neither will be nominated. Critical indie pics like Mud and Frances Ha are long shots, at best. 42 was an audience favorite, but probably won’t be recognized. The Great Gatsby was a hit, but received mixed critical reaction and isn’t really a contender.

In fact, I would say only Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight, the third entry in his relationship drama series with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy stands any real chance at a nomination. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it did get a nod, though that remains to be seen with the heavy hitters coming out this fall.

That basically means only Linklater stands a shot at a Best Director nomination, though I feel the film stands a better chance at recognition than the director.

Once again, only Ethan Hawke seems possible for a Best Actor nomination for Midnight, though I’d say it’s unlikely. His co-star Julie Delpy has a shot at Best Actress as well, as might Greta Gerwig for her performance in Frances Ha. In the Supporting Actor race, perhaps Matthew McConaughey could sneak in for his work in Mud, though he may have a better chance with this fall’s Wolf of Wall Street. If Supporting Actor ends up being extremely weak (doubtful), Harrison Ford has an outside chance for his portrayal of Branch Rickey in 42. I see no possibilities for Best Supporting Actress thus far.

In the writing categories, Before Midnight stands an excellent chance at getting an Original Screenplay nomination. Frances Ha is more of a long shot. I see no contenders in the Adapted Screenplay race.

Per usual, the blockbuster pics released so far stand more realistic chances in the technical categories. The Great Gatsby could pick up Art Direction and Costume Design nominations. Oz the Great and Powerful could contend in those categories, too. In the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories, look for possible nods for Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Iron Man 3. Both Star Trek and Man of Steel could land Makeup nominations (especially Trek). And for the Visual Effects category, the list is longer: Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Oz the Great and Powerful, and Oblivion. I see no major contenders in the Cinematography, Editing, or Score races.

Finally, for Animated Feature, we do have some possibilities: Monsters University, Epic, and The Croods. Monsters is practically a shoo-in.

So there you have it! Slim pickings for the Oscar race at this mid-year juncture. 2013 looks no different from normal years where the bulk of nominees will come later in the year.