Month: June 2013

Box Office Predictions: June 7-9

Two new entries join the box office fray this weekend to compete with the third weekend of the massive sixth Fast&Furious pic and the second weekend of the surprise hit Now You See Me, as well as the Will Smith bomb After Earth.

I am predicting our two newcomers will open 1st and 2nd. With the Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge, I am predicting above expectations and sticking with it. My extensive blog post on that pic can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-purge-box-office-prediction/

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson reunite for The Internship. I’m not expecting Wedding Crashers numbers, but am predicting a respectable opening. My full post outlining its prospects is available here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, Fast&Furious 6 will likely not experience the over 60 percent drop it received its sophomore weekend after a mammoth opening. I look for it to dip a tad above 50%. Now You See Me opened #2 last weekend with a much bigger than anticipated $29 million. With solid word of mouth, this may not dip below 50%, which would be a terrific hold. And, lastly, the Will/Jaden Smith sci-fi flick After Earth debuted last weekend with a very disappointing $27 million. Pretty much all buzz since its opening has been highly negative. A major drop seems assured.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The Purge

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. The Internship

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

3. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Now You See Me

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. After Earth

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 65%)

As always, I’ll have updates posted on the Facebook page this weekend and full results Sunday on the blog!

The Purge Box Office Prediction

I would say that even a month ago, The Purge was really on no one’s radar screen when talking about potentially successful summer flicks. That has changed.

The Ethan Hawke thriller comes with a very cool concept. Set in 2022, The Purge refers to a 24-hour period that takes place every year in which all crime, including murder, is legal. Hawke is the head of a family who are terrorized by those looking to punch their free crime card. This pic seems to have gained momentum just in the last couple of weeks with frequent TV spots. I will admit – the trailers and ads for The Purge are pretty damn effective.

Five summers ago, a similar title The Strangers opened to a robust $21 million. I certainly believe The Purge could post similar grosses. Films like this tend to do more than what most prognosticators go with, so I’m tempted to predict on the high end of expectations. Mr. Hawke had a nice size hit just last fall with Sinister, which opened with a more than expected $18 million.

The sudden surge of Purge could mean a #1 opening this weekend. I believe it will be a close race between this and the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship. My prediction for that film can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

I’ve gone too low on too many similar titles and I won’t do it here. With that said:

The Purge opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million

I’ll have full predictions for this weekend’s top five later this week – stay tuned!

The Internship Box Office Prediction

Eight long summers ago, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson struck box office gold with Wedding Crashers, which was the surprise hit of the season with $209 million domestically. Since then, the two actors have seen more flops than hits. Fred Claus? You, Me, and Dupree? The Dilemma? Drillbit Taylor? Hall Pass? The Watch?

You get the idea. So it makes perfect sense that the two stars would team up again to recapture some box office magic. The Internship features Vince and Owen as obsolete salesmen who are forced to start over at Google headquarters. It costars Rose Byrne, John Goodman, and maybe even a surprise actor or two…

The question is: will the reunion of these actors be enough to guarantee solid box office returns? My feeling is – if so, the marketing campaign surrounding the picture is not doing it any favors. I simply haven’t found the trailers to be very funny at all. Some of the humor displayed in the previews looks curiously outdated. And I find the decision of a PG-13 rating to be possibly troubling – Wedding Crashers, after all, is known for its R rated humor.

When The Internship was first announced, there may have been a feeling of excitement about the two leads teaming up again. That anticipation seems to have dissipated. There’s also what I feel will be a real competition for the top spot this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge seems to be running an effective marketing campaign and its numbers could be strong. My prediction post for that will be up either later tonight or tomorrow.

The Internship is an excellent example of a movie that could easily over or under perform. We could see a $30 million opening weekend. We could see a $12 million opening weekend. I think Vaughn and Wilson reunited is most likely to equal a high teens or low-twenties opening weekend.

The Internship opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift Movie Review

2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift is the third entry in the series. It brings in a new cast and places its setting on a new continent. The results, however, are not too pleasing.

With Paul Walker, Tyrese, and everyone else out of the picture (for now), Tokyo Drift centers on Sean, a rebellious high school kid who loves drag racing. So much so that Sean gets into trouble after one particularly fouled up race and is sent to Tokyo to live with his military father.

Sean is played by Lucas Black, who you may remember as the kid from Sling Blade. He grew up to look a little bit like a young Dave Matthews. And he definitely grew up… I couldn’t help but chuckle when his character is supposed to be 17. The actor was 24 when he played the role. He looks 28. There’s one scene where some girls are flirting with Sean and his friend exclaims, “Ladies, he’s underage!” I wanted to shout “No he isn’t!!” back at the screen.

With the move to Tokyo, Sean strikes up a friendship with a famous actor played by Bill Murray who’s in town to shoot a liquor commercial. Wait. Wrong movie. Sean actually strikes up a friendship with Twinkie, played by Bow Wow. I’m assuming at one point his name was Lil Twinkie. Of course, Twinkie gets Sean right back into the street racing world.

This mixes Sean up with DK (Brian Tee), whose uncle Mr. Kamata (the legendary Sonny Chiba) is a fixture in the Yakuza. Naturally, DK has a girlfriend Neela (Natalie Kelley) that Sean stupidly goes after. Just like Paul Walker does! And there’s also Han (Sung Kang), who works for Mr. Kamata and takes a liking to Sean.

Tokyo Drift introduces us to the practice “drifting”, in which the driver intentionally loses traction in the rear wheels to get through corners, etc… And that’s straight from Wikipedia, folks, so ya know it’s true! We even get a couple of monologues after how drifting makes you feel like a free person. Or some nonsense like that.

The movie takes a long way to get where it’s going and the first hour is quite a bore. When we finally get a pretty badass race through the streets of Tokyo, Drift makes a rather severe shift in tone that feels a bit jarring.

Although there is that aforementioned race that works and the climactic race down a mountain that is effective, Tokyo Drift is mostly weak sauce. None of the acting is particularly memorable and the screenplay feels lazy (lame references to Justin Timberlake and Beyonce stand out). Director Justin Lin takes over the franchise and he can direct action, but there’s not enough of it. Some of the production design is rather sweet looking so props to the team behind that.

By the end, we do get a cameo from a major star in the franchise. I don’t wanna give too much away, but here’s a hint. It’s not Viola Davis, but it’s an actor with the same initials. Perhaps I’ve said too much.

The original was a mixed bag that had a lot of solid moments. I found the second to be an improvement because it knew it was trash, but was often fun as hell. Tokyo Drift simply doesn’t have much going for it and it definitely the worst of the bunch so far.

** (out of four)

The blog series will continue with film #4 Fast&Furious.

2 Fast 2 Furious Movie Review

Continuing on with my blog series evaluating the films in the Fast and Furious franchise, we move onto #2 in the series titled 2 Fast 2 Furious. Released a decade ago, the sequel incorporates future Twitter speak with its title. Apparently Too Fast Too Furious didn’t work. Or The Faster and the Furiouser. Or the obvious choice – Fast and Furious 2. Due to their choice, I have chosen 2 incorporate Twitter speak as best I can 4 the remainder of this review:

2 Fast 2 Furious moves the action away from California 2 Miami w/lead character Brian (Paul Walker) going undercover once again 2 infiltrate drug lord Verone (Cole Hauser), who from here on out will b known as “Scarface lite.” If Brian successfully brings down Scarface lite, his criminal record achieved in the original film will b wiped clean. Furthermore, it will allow the character 2 try 2 rectify his deserved reputation as the Worst Undercover Cop in Film History. Brian enlists his childhood friend Roman (Tyrese Gibson) 2B his partner on the mission. They also partner up w/a hot undercover customs agent, played by Eva Mendes (#goslingsgirlfriend).

The film brings in Boyz N The Hood director John Singleton, taking over the franchise from Rob Cohen. There’s also no Vin Diesel, Jordana Brewster, or Michelle Rodgriguez, but Luda is in the house! (#standup) (#chickenandbeer) (#getback) (#southernhospitality) Like the original, the dialogue n character development often leave much 2B desired. Roman’s main character trait is that he likes 2 eat a lot. LMFAO! Scarface lite is a rather dull villain. And, once again, Brian chooses the 1 girl 2 develop a crush on (#goslingsgirlfriend) that he really shouldn’t.

Having said all that, I’ll B damned if 2 Fast 2 Furious isn’t mostly a whole lotta fun. This is more action flick than street racing flick & the action sequences r well-done n exciting. 2 Fast is certainly not an intelligent movie, but whaddya expect? I was highly entertained most of the time – more so, in fact, than I was w/the original. I know this goes against the general consensus, but I gotta B honest. YOLO. Plus, the 1st 1 didn’t have a bizarre sequence where a rat gnaws on a dude’s stomach! SMH

If u leave leave ur critical nitpicking behind going in2 the pic, there’s a good time 2B had here.

*** (outta 4)

I’ll b back w/the 3rd Fast movie Tokyo Drift soon… c ya! ttyl 😉

Box Office Results: May 31-June 2

It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking. 

This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.

We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.

This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.

And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.

Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).

RECAP

Fast and Furious 6

Gross: $35.1 million. Todd’s Prediction: $36 million.

Now You See Me

Gross: $29.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $14.2 million.

After Earth

Gross: $27.5 million. Todd’s Prediction: $39.1 million.

Epic

Gross: $16.6 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.7 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Gross: $16.7 million. Todd’s Prediction: $18.5 million.

The Hangover Part III

Gross: $16.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.1 million.

So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!

The Fast and the Furious Movie Review

Being that the top two grossing opening weekends in Universal Pictures history is the last two installments of the Fast and Furious franchise, I felt it was time for yours truly to take a look at the series.

Yes, believe it or not, I have only seen the original F+F picture. That was twelve years ago and I barely remembered it. So what’s a blogger to do? Why go out and buy the first five flicks and review them all for your perusal. Hopefully, I’ll watch ’em in enough time to catch the sixth feature in the theater and blog about it as well.

Let’s begin with the franchise’s first entry, 2001’s The Fast and the Furious. Director Rob Cohen brings us into the world of California street racing when LAPD officer Brian (Paul Walker) goes undercover to solve a series of truck hijackings. This introduces him to a team of racers led by Dominic (Vin Diesel). His crew includes his girl Letty (Michelle Rodriguez), the one that doesn’t like Brian, the one whose dad is in jail, and, um, the other one. Of course, Brian also falls in love with Dominic’s sister (Jordana Brewster) in order for him to be emotionally invested.

Dominic’s crew is in a long-standing rivalry with an Asian street gang, led by Johnny Tran (Die Another Day‘s Rick Yune) and it is that crew that Brian initially suspects of being the perps. It just can’t be Dominic, especially after he explains his daddy issues to Brian in a male bonding moment.

Truth be told, The Fast and the Furious is no great of example of writing or, in my cases, acting. Walker is a bit of blank slate and Brewster is rather dull as well. The one with screen presence is definitely Mr. Diesel, as well as Ms. Rodriguez.

It’s worth noting that Fast seems directly influenced by an action pic that came ten years before it, Kathryn Bigelow’s Point Break. Call this Point Brake, if you will. Only it’s not near as good.

Where Fast often succeeds is its well choreographed car sequences that certainly make it highly watchable. Director Cohen directs the pic with energy and style with a soundtrack that bumps with Ludacris and Ja Rule beats for the first half and mostly techno in the second half.

Is it enough for me say the original Fast is a good movie? Not really, but it’s close. I certainly get why legions of moviegoers enjoyed it. If I’m being honest, though, I spent the last few minutes of the film wondering two things:

1) In the climactic truck hijacking, how come there’s zero traffic on a freeway other than the hijacked truck and Brian, Dominic, and crew?

2) Isn’t Paul Walker’s character literally the worst undercover cop in the history of undercover cops?

Still, the o.g. F+F gets the franchise off to a serviceable start. Who knew that this modestly budgeted flick would become the biggest franchise in the world that doesn’t involve superheroes or is based on a wildly popular series of books?

**1/2 (out of four)

We’ll see what the gang is up to as my blog series continues shortly with 2003’s 2 Fast 2 Furious.