It’s not a Pixar prequel set at a university, but this weekend’s other new release has its own share of monsters as well in the form of zombies with World War Z. Based on a 2006 bestseller, the zombie pandemic action extravaganza is headlined by Brad Pitt.
And truth be told – most of the buzz for a long time about the picture was not positive. Its budget reportedly bloated to $200 million dollars. Stories abounded about shooting going longer than expected, reshoots, and rewrites. The film was delayed from its original December 2012 release date. For a while, it looked like World War Z may qualify as a contender for a high-profile bomb.
In the last couple of weeks, however, an interesting occurrence happened. It was screened for critics. And the results have been positive. It currently sits at a solid 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.
So how will this translate to box office numbers? First, we have the competition factor. Man of Steel will be entering its second weekend and looks poised to post numbers north of $50 million in its sophomore frame. The movies are certainly going for the same demographic.
The question is: can World War Z outdo Man of Steel‘s second weekend numbers in its first weekend? It certainly could and a gross of over $50M wouldn’t surprise me. However, I’m going a little lower here. Reviews suggest Z might have decent legs in subsequent weeks, however.
World War Z opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million
The battle for top animated movie of the summer begins this weekend at the box office. The question is: will it be Monsters University or Despicable Me 2 that end up as 2013’s highest grossing kiddie pic?
Pixar gets first crack as Monsters University, a prequel to 2001’s Monsters Inc. It’s worth noting that 12 years is a long break between any follow-up film, even a successful animated feature. That’s why some are predicting Despicable Me 2 (where the well-received original came out just three years ago) might outdo University.
Monsters Inc. was the fourth Pixar title. Monsters University is the fourteenth. Let’s take a look at Pixar’s opening weekend during that time frame, shall we?
Monsters Inc. (2001): $62.5 million
Finding Nemo (2003): $70.2 million
The Incredibles (2004): $70.4 million
Cars (2006): $60.1 million
Ratatouille (2007): $47 million
Wall-E (2008): $63 million
Up (2009): $68.1 million
Toy Story 3 (2010): $110.3 million
Cars 2 (2011): $66.1 million
Brave (2012): $66.3 million
So where will Monsters University fall? Well, it’s highly unlikely to have the all-time Pixar opening weekend record. Toy Story 3 has that wrapped up. However, it’s got a great shot at #2. It would need to make just over $70 million for that designation and the film may well top $80 million. It’s certainly got a built-in audience, the revered Pixar name, and it is the only title out there marketing primarily towards the kid audience (Epic has grossed what it’s going to gross). A typical Pixar $70M gross wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m going on the high end with my prediction.
Monsters University opening weekend prediction: $82.1 million
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a terrific box office prediction by yours truly!
Yes, I will pat myself on the back this weekend because the radar was clicking with Man of Steel. While most prognosticators went with between $80-$100 million, I boldly predicted the Superman reboot would gross $124.3 million. Estimates put it at $125.1 million. Gold star!
Zack Snyder’s Steel got mixed reviews, but its A- Cinemascore grade indicates audiences were pleased with what they saw.
I did go a bit high on the all-star comedy This is The End. It earned $20.5 million over the weekend and $32.8 million over its five-day take (it opened Wednesday). My estimates were $25.2M and $38.6M, respectively. Still, that’s a pretty solid opening – especially considering it cost only $32M to make.
The rest of the top five: Now You See Me was third was $10.3M (I guessed $11.5M), Fast and Furious 6 was fourth with $9.4M (I said $10.5M), and The Purge had an enormous drop in its second weekend with $8.2M (I said $13.2M).
That’s all for now folks! I’ll have predictions for both of next weekend’s openers, Monsters University and World War Z, up on the blog very soon!
In will undoubtedly be the return of Superman in Man of Steel that rules the box office this weekend. The only question is: how big will it open? I made my fearless prediction earlier in the week here:
Some would call my prediction a bit generous. Since I wrote the post on Sunday, reviews for Steel have come out. They’re mixed and I frankly thought the critical reaction would be more positive. However, this doesn’t take away from the fact that the pic is eagerly anticipated and has terrific trailers. We’ll see how the prediction holds up.
The weekend’s other new release, the all-star comedy This Is the End, is generating great reviews and also has the bonus of trailers that work. It officially opened wide today but its Tuesday evening numbers are encouraging. It could be even go bigger than my prediction. Time will tell. My post predicting End can be found here:
As for holdovers, expect fairly modest declines for Now You See Me and Fast&Furious 6. The largest decline should be for last weekend’s #1, The Purge, which outdid all expectations by a mile but also only received a C Cinemascore grade. A precipitous drop looks likely.
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Man of Steel
Predicted Gross: $124.3 million
2. This Is the End
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million ($38.6 million projected five-day gross)
3. The Purge
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 61%)
4. Now You See Me
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Fast&Furious 6
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
And there you are! Check back this weekend for early results on the FB page and on Sunday for final results when we see just how high Superman flies.
And now… for a new category on the blog. It’s called Guilty Pleasures and if you’re a movie lover, you’ve got ’em.
Those movies that you love and watch every single time they’re on TV, but don’t immediately come to mind when people ask what the greatest movies are. I get asked that question a lot. And truth be told, there’s a difference between greatest movies and favorite movies.
Schindler’s List is one of the greatest movies of all time. I’ve seen it once. In the theater. Almost twenty years ago. However, a Guilty Pleasure movie… that’s a different story.
My first selection is Clue, the 1985 comedy based on the popular Parker Bros. board game. We all know the game. I played it incessantly as a young child growing up in the inner city of Fremont.
Co-written by director Jonathan Lynn and comedy genius extraordinaire John Landis, Clue is simply a whole lot of fun. It was not particularly well-received upon its release and grossed $14 million domestically (its budget was $15 million). Since then, it’s developed a deserved cult following. I am a proud member of the cult.
Clue excels in its casting. As the players suspected of killing Mr. Body, we have the invaluable Madeline Kahn as Mrs. White, Lesley Anne Warren as Miss Scarlet, Eileen Brennan as Mrs. Peacock, Michael McKean as Mr. Green, Martin Mull as Colonel Mustard, and Christopher Lloyd as Professor Plum. They all have some great moments to shine. Even better, Tim Curry is marvelous as Wadworth, the butler of Hill House.
The picture comes in at a tidy and fast-paced 94 minutes. There were three endings shot for the pic with different characters being the murderer. During its theatrical release, some viewers saw one outcome. Others witnessed an alternate ending. By the time it was released on home video, all 3 endings were shown back to back… to back.
Is Clue a great movie? No, but damn it’s fun. And it’s populated with talented actors who seem to be enjoying themselves. Is it a guilty pleasure? I guess so. However, it’s also indisputably the Citizen Kane of movies based on board games… meaning it’s better than Battleship. And unlike Battleship, it’s intentionally funny.
It seems like every summer, there’s a breakout R-rated comedy or two that hits it big at the box office. Wedding Crashers. Knocked Up. Superbad. The Hangover. Bridesmaids. Horrible Bosses. Ted.
This Is the End has the potential to be 2013’s contender in the category. It features a who’s who of contemporary comedic starts playing themselves as the apocalypse nears. We’ve got Seth Rogen and James Franco. Danny McBride and Jonah Hill. Michael Cera and Jay Baruchel. And many more – even Emma Watson and Rihanna are in the house!
Early reviews for End have been very positive and it apparently delivers on its clever premise. The trailers have been quite funny. So… how big could it open?
This is a tough one and its release date is a factor. End opens on Wednesday, so my prediction will reflect my five-day estimate. There is no doubt in my mind that the Wednesday opening is due to a certain superhero flick opening Friday. This allows End two days of grosses without Superman in competition. I made my prediction for Man of Steel yesterday on the blog and that post can be found here:
Man of Steel absolutely provides direct competition for This Is the End. They are both going after a similar demographic. If End were able to bring in $45 million or over for the five-day, that should be considered a major victory. I’m not convinced it goes that high, though it’s certainly possible. As much as I’ve enjoyed the film’s marketing campaign, I truly wonder whether its concept may seem a little insider-ish for some moviegoers. For instance, I’m not sure it has the broad appeal of last summer’s Ted, which opened to $54 million (that’s a three-day gross). And with Superman in the way, there might be some viewers who simply choose to make that film their weekend entertainment.
Still, This Is the End should have a solid debut and, based on early critical reaction, could have nice legs in the coming weeks.
This Is the End opening prediction (five-day gross): $38.6 million
That’s all for now! On Wednesday, I’ll have my predictions for the Top Five of the weekend.
As we enter a new week, one question will be bothering box office prognosticators like me: How big will Man of Steel open?
Zack Snyder’s take on the Superman story seems to have a lot going for it. For starters, the trailers for it have been terrific. Audience awareness of the film is through the roof. And… well, it’s Superman for goodness sake!
However, the Man of Steel’s track record at the box office underwent an interest journey just seven summers ago. Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns was supposed to be the beginning of a new Supes franchise. It didn’t work out that way. While the picture grossed a solid $84 million in its first five days, moviegoers and critics weren’t impressed with what they saw. Returns went on to gross $200 million domestically, less than its huge budget. The film was considered a box office disappointment.
Warner Bros. went back to the drawing board, bringing in 300 and Watchmen director Snyder. Relative unknown (but not for long) Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent. While the lead may not be a big name, Man of Steel‘s supporting cast is populated with recognizable stars – Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Laurence Fishburne and Russell Crowe.
Folks seem to be excited about Man of Steel. Those effective trailers have been a plus. As I consider its opening weekend possibilities, the question seems to be: will it gross over $100 million the first weekend or not?
I believe it will. Frankly, anything below nine figures might be considered a letdown. It does come with a reported $225 million budget, after all. When the sixth Fast and Furious earns $120 million over four days, it stands to reason that Man of Steel could make similar bank in three. Somewhere in the $120M range seems like the best bet. There’s also the distinct possibility that it makes upwards of that number. Anything around $140 million and we’re talking Top Ten openings of all time. I’m skeptical it’ll reach that high and I’m more inclined to go a bit lower. However, as the week rolls along and anticipation grows, this could turn out to be a low ball figure.
With that, here’s my best guess:
Man of Steel opening weekend prediction: $124.3 million
We’ll see what happens! Tomorrow on the blog – my prediction for the week’s other newcomer, the all-star comedy This is the End.
A shrewd marketing campaign propelled The Purge to a massive opening this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller, which cost only $3 million to make, took in $36.3 million (well above my generous $24.9M projection). The effective trailers clearly got audiences to the multiplex, but with a weak C Cinemascore grade, expect The Purge to experience a healthy decline next weekend.
Holdovers Fast and Furious 6 and Now You See Me both held up better than I predicted. Fast 6 was second with $19.8 million (my prediction: $16.4M) and Now You See Me was third with $19.5 million (my prediction: $15.8M).
Opening at fourth was the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship with a just OK $18.1 million. I predicted a little higher at $20.7M. It’s not surprising that Internship posted rather weak numbers with its unfunny trailers. This will be no Wedding Crashers for sure.
A small weekend to weekend decline helped the animated Epic stay in the top five with a $12.1 million gross. I incorrectly had After Earth being fifth with $9.5 million. It actually grossed $11.2 million, but that was only good enough for seventh place.
Tonight on the blog – I will make my projection for a little flick called Man of Steel. Tomorrow – my projection for the all-star comedy This is the End. Stay tuned!
Hard to believe it, but Mr. Johnny Depp turns the big 5-0 tomorrow. He was once known as that cool actor who eschewed big Hollywood projects in order to do it his way. Ten years ago, a certain project came along that made him the biggest movie star in the world… and the highest paid. There is no question that Depp belongs in the pantheon of most significant film stars in the medium’s history.
In order to celebrate Johnny’s half century on this Earth and the enjoyment he’s brought to audiences, I’ve compiled my personal Top Ten favorite Johnny Depp performances.
First, some notes about pictures that did not make the cut. Most famous actors have forgettable film debuts. Not Johnny Depp. Audiences first saw Depp meeting a rather unfortunate end in one of the best scenes in 1984’s A Nightmare on Elm Street.
While 2010’s Alice in Wonderland may be his second highest grossing flick ever, you won’t find it in my Top Ten. I found it to be quite a disappointment. Johnny is apparently negotiating to star in a sequel and I hope it improves on the original considerably.
While a number of Depp’s Tim Burton collaborations are in the Top Ten – you won’t find Sleepy Hollow or Dark Shadows or Sweeney Todd. And even though he got an Oscar nomination for it, Marc Forster’s JM Barrie biopic Finding Neverland missed the cut, as did Michael Mann’s John Dillinger biopic Public Enemies.
So, let’s get to the movies that did make the list, shall we?
10. From Hell (2001)
The Hughes Brothers retelling of the hunt for Jack the Ripper is a violent and visionary feast. Depp is terrific as Inspector Frederick Abberline, the investigator whose drug-inspired dreams leads him down Jack’s trail.
9. Once Upon a Time in Mexico (2003)
Robert Rodriguez’s follow-up to Desperado is the rare sequel that’s quite a bit better. And part of that has to do with Depp’s often hilarious and typically offbeat portrayal of a CIA agent. He’s got some great one-liners to work with here: “Are you a Mexican or a Mexican’t?”
8. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005)
Anyone trying to compete with Gene Wilder’s brilliant work in 1971’s Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory faced an uphill battle. Smartly, Depp didn’t even try. He created his own take on Roald Dahl’s eccentric factory owner. The result: another top-notch performance from Depp in his collaboration with Tim Burton.
7. Blow (2001)
Based on the true life story of drug kingpin George Jung, Depp is on his game in this Ted Demme effort. This is a Depp performance that is mostly free of his character quirks that are found in most roles he chooses. He’s one of the best dramatic actors and Blow is evidence of it.
6. Don Juan DeMarco (1995)
One of the actor’s most underrated films and performances. Depp plays a patient at a psychiatric hospital who believes that he is Don Juan, the world’s greatest lover. His doctor is played by Marlon Brando. Don Juan DeMarco features fabulous work from these two titans of acting and if you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor.
5. Donnie Brasco (1997)
Here we have Depp teaming up with another acting God, Al Pacino. Mike Newell’s film casts Depp as an undercover FBI agent infiltrating the Mob in the 1970s. Pacino is one of the gangsters who becomes close with Depp’s character. Based on a true story, Depp excels once again in another straight dramatic performance.
4. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998)
Terry Gilliam’s tale of journalist Hunter S. Thompson on a drug fueled journey through Sin City gave Johnny an unforgettable role. There are simply too many terrific one-liners that Depp spews to list here and he has a solid partner with Benicio del Toro as his attorney. This is Johnny gone wild and boy is it fun!
3. Ed Wood (1994)
Tim Burton’s loving biopic of Ed Wood, often called Hollywood’s worst director, is a great film with Depp as the title character. Burton’s picture wonderfully displays the joy of movie making, even if the movies are crap. And Depp sells it as the man behind the camera. And he gets to cross dress in it, too!
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
It’s kind of hard to recall now just how amazing this picture was when it came out ten years ago. Much of that may be due to the three lackluster sequels that followed. However, Black Pearl is popcorn entertainment of the highest order. And it’s Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow that turned it into an instant classic. Disney was worried about Depp’s performance when it was being filmed. Turns out Depp’s quirky take on the pirate was its main selling point. This is what turned Johnny into the biggest movie star on the planet.
1. Edward Scissorhands (1990)
Depp’s first collaboration with Tim Burton is still the best. Furthermore, Depp’s performance as the title character embodies everything great about this performer. There’s the aforementioned quirkiness. The vulnerability. The physicality. Edward Scissorhands is a special film with a very special leading performance.
So there you have it! My favorite work from one of the best actors in movie history. And Happy 50th birthday to Johnny Depp!
At the Oscar ceremony in 2003, Academy voters clearly were in the mode of honoring Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was the third and final entry in the series. The first two, Fellow of the Ring and The Two Towers, had been nominated for Best Picture in 2001 and 2002, but not won.
A similar fate would not befall Return of the King. The Tolkien adapted pic took the top prize over Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation, Peter Weir’s Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Clint Eastwood’s Mystic River, and Gary Ross’s Seabiscuit.
I certainly haven no issue with King, Mystic, and Translation‘s nomination. While I liked Commander and Seabiscuit, other titles would’ve made the list for me. How about Fernando Meirelles’s terrific City of God, for one? Or American Splendor, the very original biopic about Harvey Pekar. Or Quentin Tarantino’s electrifying genre mix-up Kill Bill – Volume One.
Rings director Peter Jackson would win Best Director over Coppola, Eastwood, Weir, and City of God‘s Meirelles. Once again, I would’ve given serious consideration to Mr. Tarantino especially.
Sean Penn would win his first Oscar in the Best Actor race as a grieving father bent on revenge in Mystic River. He was expected to win and he beat out a solid group that included Johnny Depp in his first appearance as Captain Jack in Pirates of the Caribbean, Ben Kingsley in House of Sand and Fog, Jude Law in Cold Mountain, and the incomparable Bill Murray earning his first nomination for Lost in Translation.
I would have replaced Jude Law with Paul Giamatti’s brilliant work in American Splendor. William H. Macy also gave a fine performance in The Cooler. On the comedic side, how about Will Ferrell in Elf or Billy Bob Thornton as Bad Santa?
As expected, Charlize Theron’s shocking and highly effective performance in Monster would earn her Best Actress. Other nominees: Keisha Castle-Hughes in Whale Rider, Diane Keaton in Something’s Gotta Give, Samantha Morton for In America, and Naomi Watts in 21 Grams.
I absolutely would have found room for Bill Murray’s counterpart in Lost in Translation, Scarlett Johannson and Uma Thurman in the first Kill Bill. Others for consideration: Jennifer Connelly in House of Sand and Fog and Maria Bello in The Cooler.
The Mystic River acting love would extend to Tim Robbins, who took Supporting Actor over Alec Baldwin in The Cooler, Benicio del Toro in 21 Grams, Djimon Hounsou for In America, and Ken Watanabe in The Last Samurai.
Others for consideration: the fine work of Jeff Bridges in Seabiscuit. And, at this point, I will confess to being a huge fan of Love Actually. And the work of Bill Nighy as an inappropriate aging rocker might have made my cut.
While Cold Mountain did not get a Best Picture nod as the studio clearly hoped it would, Renee Zellweger would win Supporting Actress for the film. Zellwegger won over Shohreh Aghdashloo in House of Sand and Fog, Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April, Marcia Gay Harden in Mystic River, and Holly Hunter for Thirteen.
Ms. Charlize Theron’s remarkable work clearly overshadowed Christina Ricci, who was left off in this category for Monster. I also would’ve considered Hope Davis in American Splendor. And for the comedic performers who are too often ignored, how about Joan Cusack as the tightly wound headmaster in School of Rock?
In retrospect, 2003 was the year of the King and Peter Jackson’s groundbreaking trilogy.
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