The post Memorial Day box office weekend sees the release of two new titles, the Will/Jaden Smith sci-fi pic After Earth and the caper film Now You See Me. Earlier this week, I wrote posts predicting both openings:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/now-you-see-me-box-office-prediction/
My After Earth prediction of $39.1 million raises the following question: will it open #1 this weekend? Last holiday weekend saw the massive debut of Fast&Furious 6. Depending on how big it drops, it could retain the top spot. The previous five entries in the franchise all dipped a consistent 59-63% in their sophomore frames. It stands to reason that FF6 would experience a similar decline and may drop a tad more because it opened so huge.
The Hangover Part III had a very disappointing opening and its second weekend shouldn’t be too great either. The franchise has clearly run out of steam. The animated Epic had a solid opening last weekend and should experience the smallest decline of any title. And, finally, Star Trek Into Darkness will probably lose about half its audience in its third weekend.
With that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. After Earth
Predicted Gross: $39.1 million
2. Fast&Furious 6
Predicted Gross: $36 million (representing a drop of 65%)
3. Star Trek Into Darkness
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. Epic
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. The Hangover Part III
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)
This would leave Now You See Me debuting at #6 with my predicted opening of $14.2 million. As always, check back over the weekend on the Facebook page for early returns and Sunday on the blog for final results.
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